My prediction: We sign Robert for a total of $65 mil. Yours?

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

"What's another $10 million?"

How many years did Robert get? If that extra $10 million is spread over 4 years, at $2.5 mil/year, then that would be like 0.8% of their revenue each year. And actually, we know revenue will likely take a big jump next year with the new TV deal. So something less than that.

I could be wrong, but I'm under the impression that the money is just a signing bonus and then the player enters the system same as any player drafted. So, 6 years of team control at the major league level plus 4ish years until they have to be added to the 40 man to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.

This is my understanding. So if Robert turns out to be good, 50 million outlay by the team becomes 80-100 million for his years of team control depending on how good he is.

Yeah, if he makes $50M through his arb years, that's a pretty damn good player. One that's putting up multiple 5+ win seasons.

Yeah, I definitely don't think it's a no-brainer.

I would like to see the team spend on an impact F/A next off-season, since they're not on the hook for Roberts. Fowler was a good start last off-season.

I'm confused. Are you saying his ability to make another 50 mil through arbitration make it not a no brainier? In order to make 50ish mil in arbitration, that player has to be a Manny Machado type player. Machado earned about 1.5 mil his first three years total, 5 mil his 4th year, is making 11.5 this year and will earn probably 20ish next year. If a team is paying a guy 50mil through arbitration, that player is in the MVP race and providing MAASSIVE surplus value well in excess of whatever signing bonus the Cardinals would have given Robert. It is a no brainier in that case.

[MrCrowesGarden]

Yeah, I definitely don't think it's a no-brainer.

I would like to see the team spend on an impact F/A next off-season, since they're not on the hook for Roberts. Fowler was a good start last off-season.

And who would that be?

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/

Awful free agent class. Awful.

And with Lynn and Peralta coming off the books at the end of the season, it's probably another year where payroll goes down. I'll understand why this time.

[TGantz]

That's a crappy list. Frazier, maybe take a chance on Cargo, Estrada...? I don't even know who I'd be interested in from that class.

[Tim]

That's a crappy list. Frazier, maybe take a chance on Cargo, Estrada...? I don't even know who I'd be interested in from that class.

Exactly

[TGantz]

Fwiw, I think I'm ok with letting this go. If we set the precedent that we'll overpay on anyone decent because St. Louis sucks, we'll do that for every signing. Then we're giving even more money on an already bad deal to guys like Heyward to buy their love.

We have to stay with guys like Holliday that would appreciate a small city, and continue building through the draft like we have been. We're just in a lull right now and the lost picks don't help. It'll even out and we'll snag a surprise FA or big trade for a medium superstar, and supplement with average players like we've done since 2000.

[Socnorb11]

I'm confused. Are you saying his ability to make another 50 mil through arbitration make it not a no brainier? In order to make 50ish mil in arbitration, that player has to be a Manny Machado type player. Machado earned about 1.5 mil his first three years total, 5 mil his 4th year, is making 11.5 this year and will earn probably 20ish next year. If a team is paying a guy 50mil through arbitration, that player is in the MVP race and providing MAASSIVE surplus value well in excess of whatever signing bonus the Cardinals would have given Robert. It is a no brainier in that case.

No, I'm saying that there's no guarantee that it would have ended well.

[Johnconrad]

I can tell you how much the Cardinals will be paying him now. I can also tell you how much the Cardinals will be paying for their first three picks. The same amount.

The core continues to age.

[Johnconrad]

Fwiw, I think I'm ok with letting this go. If we set the precedent that we'll overpay on anyone decent because St. Louis sucks, we'll do that for every signing. Then we're giving even more money on an already bad deal to guys like Heyward to buy their love.

We have to stay with guys like Holliday that would appreciate a small city, and continue building through the draft like we have been. We're just in a lull right now and the lost picks don't help. It'll even out and we'll snag a surprise FA or big trade for a medium superstar, and supplement with average players like we've done since 2000.

What guys like Holliday have the Cardinals signed this decade?

[Johnconrad]

Yeah, I definitely don't think it's a no-brainer.

I would like to see the team spend on an impact F/A next off-season, since they're not on the hook for Roberts. Fowler was a good start last off-season.

And who would that be?

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/

Awful free agent class. Awful.

And with Lynn and Peralta coming off the books at the end of the season, it's probably another year where payroll goes down. I'll understand why this time.

Heading for 40% of team revenues - or less.

[Socnorb11]

Fwiw, I think I'm ok with letting this go. If we set the precedent that we'll overpay on anyone decent because St. Louis sucks, we'll do that for every signing. Then we're giving even more money on an already bad deal to guys like Heyward to buy their love.

We have to stay with guys like Holliday that would appreciate a small city, and continue building through the draft like we have been. We're just in a lull right now and the lost picks don't help. It'll even out and we'll snag a surprise FA or big trade for a medium superstar, and supplement with average players like we've done since 2000.

What guys like Holliday have the Cardinals signed this decade?

How many teams have won more than the Cardinals this decade?

Not many..........