2011 NFL season

[stlouie_lipp]

If you don't see a difference in QB competence and sustainability with YAC coming from a check-down dump-off versus hitting a receiver in stride 20 yards down the field and then taking it to the house...well, I don't know what else to say. I guess we have different criteria in evaluating NFL QBs.

I do see it. But the stats show that Tebow isn't getting that many yards on dump-offs. That's what I'm trying to explain to you. In fact, he's getting fewer yards that way than most QB's.

You do understand that the "C " in YAC means catch, not dump-off, right? You comparisons to Brady or Rothlisberger using any stat is ridiculous. My point is YAC for those two largely come in a different way than Tebow's. Like I said, if you can't see that difference than there is nothing else to say. You can argue semantics all you like.

This is exactly why statistical analysis in the NFL doesn't work like it does in baseball. I was simply pointing out, that in Tebow's "great" passing game (205yds), many, many of those yards came from dump-down passes. Sorry, I'm not jumping on the "Tebow's passing game is getting much better" bandwagon because of that performance.

I know what the "C" means. If Tebow is dumping the ball off, and the receiver/back is accumulating yards after that, then YAC goes up. If Tebow is throwing the ball 20-30 yards downfield and hitting a receiver, then YAC is lower. My point is that Tebow's YAC is relatively low. That means he's likely hitting receivers downfield. I'm not sure which part of that you're not understanding. I'm also curious how many Broncos games you've watched. You keep saying that many of his yards last week came from dump-down passes, but that's simply not true.

I'm done debating this with you. I don't think he'll be a successful NFL QB, you do. Time will tell.

[Socnorb11]

If you don't see a difference in QB competence and sustainability with YAC coming from a check-down dump-off versus hitting a receiver in stride 20 yards down the field and then taking it to the house...well, I don't know what else to say. I guess we have different criteria in evaluating NFL QBs.

I do see it. But the stats show that Tebow isn't getting that many yards on dump-offs. That's what I'm trying to explain to you. In fact, he's getting fewer yards that way than most QB's.

You do understand that the "C " in YAC means catch, not dump-off, right? You comparisons to Brady or Rothlisberger using any stat is ridiculous. My point is YAC for those two largely come in a different way than Tebow's. Like I said, if you can't see that difference than there is nothing else to say. You can argue semantics all you like.

This is exactly why statistical analysis in the NFL doesn't work like it does in baseball. I was simply pointing out, that in Tebow's "great" passing game (205yds), many, many of those yards came from dump-down passes. Sorry, I'm not jumping on the "Tebow's passing game is getting much better" bandwagon because of that performance.

I know what the "C" means. If Tebow is dumping the ball off, and the receiver/back is accumulating yards after that, then YAC goes up. If Tebow is throwing the ball 20-30 yards downfield and hitting a receiver, then YAC is lower. My point is that Tebow's YAC is relatively low. That means he's likely hitting receivers downfield. I'm not sure which part of that you're not understanding. I'm also curious how many Broncos games you've watched. You keep saying that many of his yards last week came from dump-down passes, but that's simply not true.

I'm done debating this with you. I don't think he'll be a successful NFL QB, you do. Time will tell.

I honestly have my doubts, as I've expressed here many times.

[JL21]

Just throwing some numbers out there... Tebow's yard per attempt is 6.7, which (if he qualified) would place him tied for 23rd among qualifying QB's. That's no doubt a function of his very low completion percentage.

His yards per completion, on the other hand, is 14.1. That'd be 2nd among qualifying QB's.

I'm taking a completely wild-ass guess and those of you who have seen him play much, much more than I have can confirm or deny... It would seem that his running ability and the way the opposition fears it probably creates more shots downfield for him. Even in the best of scenarios- and having a very mobile QB like Tebow would create the very best of scenarios- a deep pass is a low percentage pass. Whatever he's doing, whatever the YAC numbers, he's generating a lot of yards on completed passes. I'd speculate that it can't all be on YAC after dumpoffs.

That doesn't mean he's great throwing deep, it doesn't mean it's sustainable, and really we're only talking about a few games of data here anyway. It could mean any number of things. I wish we could find a % completion in the various zones- 0 to 5 yards, 5 to 10, 10 to 20, and 20+.

I have to admit, I'm not at all a fan of the guy and I wish the talk about him would go away. But there's a lot of interesting stuff going on right now with the way he's playing and the numbers he's putting up. His stat line is so abnormal. It's like a throwback to the 1950's or something.

[lukethedrifter]

.
It's like a throwback to the 1950's or something.

Or to Michael Vick anyway.

[Socnorb11]

Just throwing some numbers out there... Tebow's yard per attempt is 6.7, which (if he qualified) would place him tied for 23rd among qualifying QB's. That's no doubt a function of his very low completion percentage.

His yards per completion, on the other hand, is 14.1. That'd be 2nd among qualifying QB's.

I'm taking a completely wild-ass guess and those of you who have seen him play much, much more than I have can confirm or deny... It would seem that his running ability and the way the opposition fears it probably creates more shots downfield for him. Even in the best of scenarios- and having a very mobile QB like Tebow would create the very best of scenarios- a deep pass is a low percentage pass. Whatever he's doing, whatever the YAC numbers, he's generating a lot of yards on completed passes. I'd speculate that it can't all be on YAC after dumpoffs.

That doesn't mean he's great throwing deep, it doesn't mean it's sustainable, and really we're only talking about a few games of data here anyway. It could mean any number of things. I wish we could find a % completion in the various zones- 0 to 5 yards, 5 to 10, 10 to 20, and 20+.

I have to admit, I'm not at all a fan of the guy and I wish the talk about him would go away. But there's a lot of interesting stuff going on right now with the way he's playing and the numbers he's putting up. His stat line is so abnormal. It's like a throwback to the 1950's or something.

I looked for the various zone stats also, JL. Couldn't find them.

I'm thinking that your analysis is pretty spot-on.

I've watched Tebow quite a bit. To be honest, his short and medium-range passes are more frustrating to watch than his downfield throws, for whatever reason. Think Rick Ankiel, I guess.

[JL21]

.
It's like a throwback to the 1950's or something.

Or to Michael Vick anyway.

Even Vick was completing a much higher percentage of passes than Tebow (7-9% higher) and not running with the ball as much. Also, much lower yards per completion.

[Leroy]

I said that a few pages back about the short passing is the worst part. He has good points (not many interceptions, usually finds the right guy), but there are plenty head scratcher parts too.

What really bugs me is that nut Skip Bayless who seems to be in love with him. The other day he was complaining that Denver is holding him back and not letting him play his game, and putting him under is not for him. I laughed because in the first half of the Vikings game (pardon if I don't get the order right)...Under center, 12 yard pass or so for their first first down. Under center, Willis with about a 15 yard run. Under center, Willis runs for another 12 or something. Plus every time he says the Broncos want him to fail, I want to wring his neck.

[Socnorb11]

I said that a few pages back about the short passing is the worst part. He has good points (not many interceptions, usually finds the right guy), but there are plenty head scratcher parts too.

What really bugs me is that nut Skip Bayless who seems to be in love with him. The other day he was complaining that Denver is holding him back and not letting him play his game, and putting him under is not for him. I laughed because in the first half of the Vikings game (pardon if I don't get the order right)...Under center, 12 yard pass or so for their first first down. Under center, Willis with about a 15 yard run. Under center, Willis runs for another 12 or something. Plus every time he says the Broncos want him to fail, I want to wring his neck.

Yeah, Bayless is over-the-top. As a Tebow fan, I wish he would shut up.

[JL21]

I've watched Tebow quite a bit. To be honest, his short and medium-range passes are more frustrating to watch than his downfield throws, for whatever reason. Think Rick Ankiel, I guess.

This makes me think of him as the antithesis of Blaine Gabbert, who jumps the pocket when he shouldn't, becomes horribly erratic when he jumps the pocket, can do a great job hitting short and medium range passes, and launches everything deep into next week.

And I say all of that having seen very little of his time in Jacksonville. Those were all problems he had at Mizzou. But they were masked so much by his supreme skills. Now that he's in the NFL, there's so much less margin for error and as I understand it, all of those issues have been amplified at the NFL level to the point that people think he should be benched before long-term damage is done to his psyche or something.

[Leroy]

I don't recall how many times I saw Gabbert play in college (not many) but on some plays he looked super star level, and on some he looked scared to death and terrible. I couldn't figure out the wide range.