Edmonds heading to San Diego

[Hungary Jack]

Anyone notice JEd's career .665 OPS at Petco? The sample size is tiny (38 PA), but I think he'll really struggle there.

[UK]

UK seems to think he would crack our top ten as is.

I can promise this is not a good way to judge value.

I think he can be a .275-.285 hitter, 15HRs, with a good approach at the plate with him being the best defensive 3B in the Cali League, he can prob. stick there defensively. He does seem too content with going gap and gap rather than getting out in front and trying to pull it for power.

[BW23]

College or no college, I still don't like the idea of a 25 year old (april 28) who's yet to reach AA.

I'm not a fan either...but, I am slightly appeased by the fact that he's a local product.

Not because it's a "feel good" thing for the community, but because he's probably been heavily scouted by the organization. If you're going to trade for an old prospect, you better have seen him enough to be sure that he's legitimate.

Him being from the STL doesn't mean much, since he was 17 yo. the last time he was scouted locally and might not have been drafted out of HS (maybe he was considered a tough sign). I doubt as he progressed thru USA and the minors that he was scouted more by STL than any other team.

With Rolen's issues and the lack of position prospects (espec. 3B) as well as SD having good 3B ahead of him, it was an ideal fit.

I question how much value a declining, oft-injured, soon to be FA making 8mil has. I think it was a good trade for him, given I question whether or not, he has more value than that.

This probably kills my wish of them continuing to pursue DeWitt.

[keener98]

Fat's post showing his line of decreasing production makes me feel a bit better about the deal.

IF HEALTHY, Edmonds is a player who models to age pretty well. A return to that 800-850 OPS is not entirely unrealistic.

He hasn't been healthy in a couple seasons, but his injuries are ones he would largely be expected to recover from.

This year, his walk rate was a little down, but his K rate much better -- no trends that suggest age-related decline, but one that suggests potentially not swinging the bat as aggressively. His GB:FB blend was at about career levels, his line drive rate a little below career levels but again, equally likely to be because he was hurt as because he's losing it. BABIP significantly below his norms, with no loss of ability to get the ball into the air.

He's something of a bounce-back candidate. Risk he won't? Absolutely. But in a year like 2008 on a team like this one, with only one year to go, the upside potential is probably worth more to me than the combination of what we got in the trade and relief from the risk he won't.

How can you say Edmonds body would age well? His body has taken a beating thoughout his entire career. At some point all the diving and such is going to catch up to you, and its caught up to Edmonds.

[UK]

This probably kills my wish of them continuing to pursue DeWitt.

Dewitt was scouted alot more heavily than Freese coming out of HS, I'm sure by STL as well. If they want him, it takes two to tango.

[Colbert Rasmols]

Why doesn't it allow us to move on Silva now instead of settling for Colon?

I'd rather we "settle."

[Fat Strat]

I think he can be a .275-.285 hitter, 15HRs, with a good approach at the plate with him being the best defensive 3B in the Cali League, he can prob. stick there defensively. He does seem too content with going gap and gap rather than getting out in front and trying to pull it for power.

That's something that can be taught and learned as he continues progressing through the system. There's also something to be said for a player willing to go the other way. IF he can develop power the other way, then we have a serious hitter on our hands. I understand the pull argument you're making well enough, but the best hitters in the league have always been willing to use all fields.

The difference, I suppose, is the tools of the hitter involved and the potential of those tools. Albert is limiting his tools if he tries to pull everything. He can hit it out to RF. At the other end of the spectrum, I could see how Freese would be limiting his potential by not trying to pull more. As long as he doesn't get too pull happy and in the process turns him into a .240/.310/.470 hitter with 25 hr. potential (see Crede). I would take a .280/.350/.450/15 over that all the time.


Also, is your projection a ceiling or a likely career average? Also, are you assuming in that projection some improvement as a pull hitter or as he is now (with a normal progression through the minors) this is how he would do?

Lastly, I really appreciate you weighing in on this. Your insight is invaluable in discussions like this. At the end of the day, we really have no idea what we have in prospects like these unless guys like you weigh in on them for us.

[Radbird]

IF HEALTHY, Edmonds is a player who models to age pretty well. A return to that 800-850 OPS is not entirely unrealistic.

That being said, the primary concern that I have about his health is the post-concussion thing. You never know how or if someone is going to fully recover from a concussion. If he's fully recovered from that and physically healthy then I agree completely, Steve.

He's old b/c he spent 5 years at USA, not b/c he was stagnet in the minors. He's the 3 best hitter in the organization (sorry to Jay and Kozma), best defensive 3B, best hitting 3B, etc.

This makes me feel better (and I was feeling awful). Thanks, UK.

[UK]

I think he can be a .275-.285 hitter, 15HRs, with a good approach at the plate with him being the best defensive 3B in the Cali League, he can prob. stick there defensively. He does seem too content with going gap and gap rather than getting out in front and trying to pull it for power.

That's something that can be taught and learned as he continues progressing through the system. There's also something to be said for a player willing to go the other way. IF he can develop power the other way, then we have a serious hitter on our hands. I understand the pull argument you're making well enough, but the best hitters in the league have always been willing to use all fields.

The difference, I suppose, is the tools of the hitter involved and the potential of those tools. Albert is limiting his tools if he tries to pull everything. He can hit it out to RF. At the other end of the spectrum, I could see how Freese would be limiting his potential by not trying to pull more. As long as he doesn't get too pull happy and in the process turns him into a .240/.310/.470 hitter with 25 hr. potential (see Crede). I would take a .280/.350/.450/15 over that all the time.


Also, is your projection a ceiling or a likely career average? Also, are you assuming in that projection some improvement as a pull hitter or as he is now (with a normal progression through the minors) this is how he would do?

Lastly, I really appreciate you weighing in on this. Your insight is invaluable in discussions like this. At the end of the day, we really have no idea what we have in prospects like these unless guys like you weigh in on them for us.

That's probably between an. avg year and his ceiling, so I'd call that a good year. That's before you factor the fact he's not turning on the ball. I think his ceiling could be .290 20Hrs, while right now, he'd probably hit .250-.260 with 10Hrs if he went to the majors.

His ceiling is that of avg. 3B.

[GatewaySnayke]

If the Cardinals wanted to save money, do I even need to bring up the fact that they paid:

*$8.5 million to a guy with a fake hip
*$3.5 million to a 40 y/o middle reliever
*$6.5 million to a starting pitcher who has stunk for the past three years and allowed 11 home runs in 66 innings
*$3 million to a utility infielder that can't hit. Period.

Penny smart, dollar dumb. But now that they have saved about $7 million, what will they do with their newfound wealth? Grab the next Chris Lambert in the draft? Bring Esteban Loaiza in? So many possibilities. The Edmonds trade has opened up the door to so many great things in 2008.