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Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.

Posted: May 14 12, 7:11 pm
by cpebbles
Yahoo's latest CEO pocketed over $7 million for showing up for four months. I wouldn't have figured Yahoo still had $7 million.

Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.

Posted: May 15 12, 6:14 am
by AdmiralKird
Germany's GDP came in better than expected. Finally some good news.

Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.

Posted: May 16 12, 11:23 am
by Hungary Jack
My mortgage guy called and left a message about how we could lower our rates and save some money.

I haven't gotten any figures yet, but we are at 4.375% on a 30-year jumbo. I don't see how we could lower our rates enough to make a refi worthwhile.

Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.

Posted: May 18 12, 1:49 am
by longhornbaseball
The Inequality Speech That TED Won't Show You
It is astounding how significantly one idea can shape a society and its policies. Consider this one.

If taxes on the rich go up, job creation will go down.

This idea is an article of faith for republicans and seldom challenged by democrats and has shaped much of today's economic landscape.

But sometimes the ideas that we know to be true are dead wrong. For thousands of years people were sure that earth was at the center of the universe. It's not, and an astronomer who still believed that it was, would do some lousy astronomy.

In the same way, a policy maker who believed that the rich and businesses are "job creators" and therefore should not be taxed, would make equally bad policy.

I have started or helped start, dozens of businesses and initially hired lots of people. But if no one could have afforded to buy what we had to sell, my businesses would all have failed and all those jobs would have evaporated.

That's why I can say with confidence that rich people don't create jobs, nor do businesses, large or small. What does lead to more employment is a "circle of life" like feedback loop between customers and businesses. And only consumers can set in motion this virtuous cycle of increasing demand and hiring. In this sense, an ordinary middle-class consumer is far more of a job creator than a capitalist like me.

So when businesspeople take credit for creating jobs, it's a little like squirrels taking credit for creating evolution. In fact, it's the other way around.

Anyone who's ever run a business knows that hiring more people is a capitalists course of last resort, something we do only when increasing customer demand requires it. In this sense, calling ourselves job creators isn't just inaccurate, it's disingenuous.

That's why our current policies are so upside down. When you have a tax system in which most of the exemptions and the lowest rates benefit the richest, all in the name of job creation, all that happens is that the rich get richer.

Since 1980 the share of income for the richest Americans has more than tripled while effective tax rates have declined by close to 50%.

If it were true that lower tax rates and more wealth for the wealthy would lead to more job creation, then today we would be drowning in jobs. And yet unemployment and under-employment is at record highs.

Another reason this idea is so wrong-headed is that there can never be enough superrich Americans to power a great economy. The annual earnings of people like me are hundreds, if not thousands, of times greater than those of the median American, but we don't buy hundreds or thousands of times more stuff. My family owns three cars, not 3,000. I buy a few pairs of pants and a few shirts a year, just like most American men. Like everyone else, we go out to eat with friends and family only occasionally.

I can't buy enough of anything to make up for the fact that millions of unemployed and underemployed Americans can't buy any new clothes or cars or enjoy any meals out. Or to make up for the decreasing consumption of the vast majority of American families that are barely squeaking by, buried by spiraling costs and trapped by stagnant or declining wages.
Here's an incredible fact. If the typical American family still got today the same share of income they earned in 1980, they would earn about 25% more and have an astounding $13,000 more a year. Where would the economy be if that were the case?

Significant privileges have come to capitalists like me for being perceived as "job creators" at the center of the economic universe, and the language and metaphors we use to defend the fairness of the current social and economic arrangements is telling. For instance, it is a small step from "job creator" to "The Creator". We did not accidentally choose this language. It is only honest to admit that calling oneself a "job creator" is both an assertion about how economics works and the a claim on status and privileges.

The extraordinary differential between a 15% tax rate on capital gains, dividends, and carried interest for capitalists, and the 35% top marginal rate on work for ordinary Americans is a privilege that is hard to justify without just a touch of deification

We've had it backward for the last 30 years. Rich businesspeople like me don't create jobs. Rather they are a consequence of an eco-systemic feedback loop animated by middle-class consumers, and when they thrive, businesses grow and hire, and owners profit. That's why taxing the rich to pay for investments that benefit all is a great deal for both the middle class and the rich.

So here's an idea worth spreading.

In a capitalist economy, the true job creators are consumers, the middle class. And taxing the rich to make investments that grow the middle class, is the single smartest thing we can do for the middle class, the poor and the rich.

Thank You.

Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.

Posted: May 18 12, 4:31 am
by ghostrunner
longhornbaseball wrote:The Inequality Speech That TED Won't Show You

Since 1980 the share of income for the richest Americans has more than tripled while effective tax rates have declined by close to 50%.

If it were true that lower tax rates and more wealth for the wealthy would lead to more job creation, then today we would be drowning in jobs. And yet unemployment and under-employment is at record highs.

.....
Here's an incredible fact. If the typical American family still got today the same share of income they earned in 1980, they would earn about 25% more and have an astounding $13,000 more a year. Where would the economy be if that were the case?

I like the speech, but the bolded part is a little disingenuous, isn't it? It makes it sound like the middle class would necessarily have more money. But the reason their share is so low is because the share of the wealthy is so high, right? Going back to the old tax rates, they'd get a bigger chunk of the pie but the pie would be smaller. Seems separate from the general idea he's putting forth that the tax money would go to investment that would make middle class life easier.

Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.

Posted: May 18 12, 7:42 am
by Arthur Dent
ghostrunner wrote:
longhornbaseball wrote:Here's an incredible fact. If the typical American family still got today the same share of income they earned in 1980, they would earn about 25% more and have an astounding $13,000 more a year. Where would the economy be if that were the case?
I like the speech, but the bolded part is a little disingenuous, isn't it? It makes it sound like the middle class would necessarily have more money. But the reason their share is so low is because the share of the wealthy is so high, right? Going back to the old tax rates, they'd get a bigger chunk of the pie but the pie would be smaller. Seems separate from the general idea he's putting forth that the tax money would go to investment that would make middle class life easier.
There's really no reason to believe that the pie would be bigger . The period of growing inequality in America has been associated with substantially lower, not higher, overall growth in output. There's virtually no empirical evidence that tithing to "job creators" has any benefits for the broader society. The costs, of course, are straightforward.

Edit: Also, I believe the bolded comment is referring to the divergence between productivity and wages and not to tax rates. In the post war period, a strong union movement ensured that the growth in output per worker led to a corresponding growth in wages. That broke down in the 70s, and though productivity has continued to grow, almost all of the benefits have fueled inequality by being funneled to the top without offering anything to median workers. Real median wages have been essentially flat for many decades now despite substantial overall growth. It's a pretty incredible crime.

Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.

Posted: May 18 12, 8:13 am
by IMADreamer
I wonder how much the cost of goods hurts the middle class and how that effects it all. I really don't know about GDPs, and tax rates, and stuff like that but I do know about cars. So let's take a look at cars. Back in the early 70s muscle cars were all the rage and it makes sense because anyone with a job could afford one. For example an article I read a few months back stated that a 1970 Hemi Cuda adjusted for inflation and all that economic mumbo jumbo wouuld be around 19,000 dollars in todays money. or about the cost of Honda Civic. To buy the equivalent car today a Dodge Challenger SRT-8 you are paying something like 45k dollars. Now of course things like safety standards and gadgets up the price of cars but not 26k. In fact the cost of all the safety junk is about $800 per car. With today's work force making basically what it did back then where does the cost go? Right into the cooperate pockets.

So there is your underlying cause of all of this. All the giant companies have surpressed wages over the last several decades, driven up the cost of goods because of market pricing vs value pricing, and have pocketed the money.

Trickle down economics simply does not work.

Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.

Posted: May 18 12, 8:21 am
by cards2468
Most of the cost is tied up in the price of metals, more complex manufacturing processes and incredibly more robust quality systems. Cars back in the 1970's were generally built like [expletive] compared to what we get today.

Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.

Posted: May 18 12, 9:28 am
by vinsanity
ghostrunner wrote:
longhornbaseball wrote:The Inequality Speech That TED Won't Show You
Since 1980 the share of income for the richest Americans has more than tripled while effective tax rates have declined by close to 50%.

Here's an incredible fact. If the typical American family still got today the same share of income they earned in 1980, they would earn about 25% more and have an astounding $13,000 more a year. Where would the economy be if that were the case?
I like the speech, but the bolded part is a little disingenuous, isn't it? It makes it sound like the middle class would necessarily have more money. But the reason their share is so low is because the share of the wealthy is so high, right? Going back to the old tax rates, they'd get a bigger chunk of the pie but the pie would be smaller. Seems separate from the general idea he's putting forth that the tax money would go to investment that would make middle class life easier.
Not quite, I don't think it has to do with being a 'bigger chunk of the pie' or even that the pie would be smaller.

It's about growth relative to inflation. This image shows it better. Image
Wages for the average American barely outpace inflation. For lower earners, it's less than that. Wages for the wealthiest Americans are up immensely. This article shows after tax income share is up 120% among the wealthiest. Share of income is also down 30% and negative for everyone in the bottom 80%. If it were a smaller pie/bigger piece, the ups and downs would be linear not exponential. Productivity gains are vastly outpacing wage gains. Wages for top earners increased nearly 400% while their taxes only dropped 37%.

This article is spot on. We don't need or want punitive taxes for successful or lucky individuals. But no one creates jobs cause they have money to burn.
Anyone who's ever run a business knows that hiring more people is a capitalists course of last resort, something we do only when increasing customer demand requires it. In this sense, calling ourselves job creators isn't just inaccurate, it's disingenuous.
The problem, as some of us see it, is that deficits aren't inherently bad but they are cause for concern. Politicization of deficits and debt and employment makes investors wary. We need to curb spending, we need to curb deficits but we also need to improve consumption in this country to stimulate an economy.

If you run a grocery store in the town of 100 people. 80 of them shop there and you employ 10 people that leaves 10 too poor for groceries. Those 10 people keep the shelves stocked and checkouts run efficiently while you get a $1k profit per month. Giving you an extra $1k isn't going to make you employ an 11th person (without cutting the hours of the other 10). Why would you? However, if I give $100 to each of those 10 who aren't shopping at your store, the increased wait time and lack of items on the shelf creates a demand you can't currently supply with 10 people. So you hire an 11th. Likely one of your 10 new customers, creating now 91 long term customers. One who may go spend at the tool shop next door who may need to hire one of the 9 remaining people etc etc.

Mitt Romney paid a lower effective rate than i did last year. He made more every day than i did all year. Raising capital gains taxes and marginal rates isn't about being punitive. Deficits need to be trimmed by more efficient spending and increasing tax receipts. The first way, is to get the wealthiest to pay a marginal rate more resembling that of middle America (capital gains to 20% isn't punitive, and probably too low) and also asking them to invest in the country. An economic theory like Marginal Utility shows why progressive taxes are fair. As the speaker says,
The annual earnings of people like me are hundreds, if not thousands, of times greater than those of the median American, but we don't buy hundreds or thousands of times more stuff. My family owns three cars, not 3,000. I buy a few pairs of pants and a few shirts a year, just like most American men. Like everyone else, we go out to eat with friends and family only occasionally.

Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.

Posted: May 18 12, 9:43 am
by heyzeus
Hungary Jack wrote:My mortgage guy called and left a message about how we could lower our rates and save some money.

I haven't gotten any figures yet, but we are at 4.375% on a 30-year jumbo. I don't see how we could lower our rates enough to make a refi worthwhile.
I'm getting 3.62% over 30 years on my new house. I seem to recall you need to knock a percent off in order to make it worth covering the closing costs.