PujolJunkie wrote:Pollsters DO poll cell phones, actually. I read somewhere that a poll included land line and cell phone voters.. can't remember which freaking pollster it was.
Cell phones cannot be legally dialed with the automated equipment preferred by pollsters. You can conduct a survey including cell phone users but it is more expensive and difficult. I don't believe any of the tracking polls are doing this.
Then I'd be willing to make the suggestion that Obama should be given a few points based on that. Cell phone voters, especially cell phone only voters(no landline), dramatically go to him.
I'm still fairly confident that Obama will will fairly easily, unless there's a major Gaffe by him at the debates (like if he shows up wearing lipstick and a turban).
I just don't necessarily buy into the polls. I think the states that Obama loses, he'll lose BIG, but I think the electorates will be pretty heavily in his favor.
Really? I'm not all that confident. I think the turn out is going to be key. The turn out by African American's and youth voters are going to be GIGANTIC and those two things will certainly help Obama. But is it going to be enough to offset? Winning 96% or so of African Americans and 18-34 by a good 20 points SHOULD do it. But will it?
The polls also confuse me. Democrat ID is way, way, way higher right now. Unemployment is up. A lot of things as far as plus+ Obama goes.
PujolJunkie wrote: Really? I'm not all that confident. I think the turn out is going to be key. The turn out by African American's and youth voters are going to be GIGANTIC and those two things will certainly help Obama. But is it going to be enough to offset? Winning 96% or so of African Americans and 18-34 by a good 20 points SHOULD do it. But will it?
The polls also confuse me. Democrat ID is way, way, way higher right now. Unemployment is up. A lot of things as far as plus+ Obama goes.
It's a tough call. I just have a feeling he'll get it done. I'm wondering if the Republican ticket is "peaking" too early. Palin was a huge adrenaline shot, but she'll be brought back to earth when the media gets ahold of her, and the whole "newness" wears off, in my opinion. And when it comes to the debates and the candidates HAVE to talk about policy, I think the Dems will shine.
Of course, I could be way off, too. Call me crazy, but I'm all caught up in "hope".
PujolJunkie wrote: Really? I'm not all that confident. I think the turn out is going to be key. The turn out by African American's and youth voters are going to be GIGANTIC and those two things will certainly help Obama. But is it going to be enough to offset? Winning 96% or so of African Americans and 18-34 by a good 20 points SHOULD do it. But will it?
The polls also confuse me. Democrat ID is way, way, way higher right now. Unemployment is up. A lot of things as far as plus+ Obama goes.
It's a tough call. I just have a feeling he'll get it done. I'm wondering if the Republican ticket is "peaking" too early. Palin was a huge adrenaline shot, but she'll be brought back to earth when the media gets ahold of her, and the whole "newness" wears off, in my opinion. And when it comes to the debates and the candidates HAVE to talk about policy, I think the Dems will shine.
Of course, I could be way off, too. Call me crazy, but I'm all caught up in "hope".
Geraldine Ferraro bounced Mondale huge. Then it subsided and Reagan won 525-13. Just saying.
Popeye_Card wrote:I think if Obama wins Ohio and PA, he wins the election.
I think both candidates know that too. The midwest is clearly shaping up as the battleground.
If Obama wins Ohio and PA, McCain can't win the election, even if he wins Michigan. It's electorally impossible.
Kerry States + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado + Ohio = 276
There's nowhere else on the table where McCain can make those votes up. If he wins NH, it only nets him 4 EV, gives Obama 272. Still a winner.
That's IF he can hold Colorado, of course. And assuming he doesn't pick up any other states that are in play, such as Indiana.
Florida looks like it's fair game right now, which would be a huge swing to the Dems if Obama can win it, but I wouldn't be counting on it by any means. I think he's better served winning the blue-collar crowd in the rust belt.
Popeye_Card wrote:I think if Obama wins Ohio and PA, he wins the election.
I think both candidates know that too. The midwest is clearly shaping up as the battleground.
If Obama wins Ohio and PA, McCain can't win the election, even if he wins Michigan. It's electorally impossible.
Kerry States + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado + Ohio = 276
There's nowhere else on the table where McCain can make those votes up. If he wins NH, it only nets him 4 EV, gives Obama 272. Still a winner.
That's IF he can hold Colorado, of course. And assuming he doesn't pick up any other states that are in play, such as Indiana.
Florida looks like it's fair game right now, which would be a huge swing to the Dems if Obama can win it, but I wouldn't be counting on it by any means. I think he's better served winning the blue-collar crowd in the rust belt.
He's never been down in Colorado, if I'm not mistaken. The only state I'm truly worried about is Michigan. If Obama wins Kerry + IA + NM and any combination of VA, FL, CO or OH, it's absolutely over. Indiana is probably completely off the table.
Hilary could still be the difference-maker. If she'll REALLY get behind Obama (which she hasn't done yet, but I think she will), I think it will take some of the luster off of Palin. Palin can't hold a candle to Hilary when it comes to campaigning.
Socnorb11 wrote:Hilary could still be the difference-maker. If she'll REALLY get behind Obama (which she hasn't done yet, but I think she will), I think it will take some of the luster off of Palin. Palin can't hold a candle to Hilary when it comes to campaigning.
She's gotta get behind him first, though and the media actually has to cover it. Not just "hey hillary is campaignin in florida lol k bye"
Popeye_Card wrote:I think if Obama wins Ohio and PA, he wins the election.
I think both candidates know that too. The midwest is clearly shaping up as the battleground.
If Obama wins Ohio and PA, McCain can't win the election, even if he wins Michigan. It's electorally impossible.
Kerry States + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado + Ohio = 276
There's nowhere else on the table where McCain can make those votes up. If he wins NH, it only nets him 4 EV, gives Obama 272. Still a winner.
That's IF he can hold Colorado, of course. And assuming he doesn't pick up any other states that are in play, such as Indiana.
Florida looks like it's fair game right now, which would be a huge swing to the Dems if Obama can win it, but I wouldn't be counting on it by any means. I think he's better served winning the blue-collar crowd in the rust belt.
He's never been down in Colorado, if I'm not mistaken. The only state I'm truly worried about is Michigan. If Obama wins Kerry + IA + NM and any combination of VA, FL, CO or OH, it's absolutely over. Indiana is probably completely off the table.
I think he'll win Michigan fairly easily, especially if he can secure the auto-worker vote. He has a ~5% lead right now, and Michigan went for both Kerry and Gore.
He's only 2 points behind in Indiana. I never thought it could be done, but with the Chicago burbs and if he can get the auto industry behind him, I wouldn't discount it.
