Mozeliak: "Some Changes" Coming For Cardinals, But Not A Rebuild

[Magneto2.0]

I think the Cardinals in some ways are pretty well lined up to do some type of 'retool' for next year. They have lots of position players who would be interesting to teams up and down the cost spectrum. So you could see a new version of the trades that brought players like O'Neill and Arenado to the team(but for pitchers this time) without crippling the offense. The difficulty in doing so is that they need the thing that everyone wants. So they'll be gambling on a player who is not living up to expectations(a la the O'Neill trade) or paying a steep price for an established player. Doubly so at the deadline with as few true sellers as there look to be. The other downside is even in the offseason, they need a lot of help in the rotation and may not have abundant resources to do it. As of now the 2024 rotation is Mikolas and various guys who are pitching poorly(Matz, Liberatore) or not well enough to supplant the guys pitching poorly. You'd ideally want to net 3-4 SP in that scenario. Maybe you extend Montgomery, buy low on a guy at the deadline, and sign a FA/make a bigger trade, but that's a pretty narrow road especially when you consider they aren't losing that much salary in 2024 and appear to be close to some type of spending threshold now.

The biggest issue is there are no immediate answers in the high minors to help with the rotation next year. Everyone that's a real talent is probably at least another full year away from contributing to the big league club. They really only have Mikolas and Libby for next year. Outside of ineffectiveness, it's just hard to count on Matz based off his injury history. So in order to improve this rotation significantly, without spending the money, they're going to have to part with some comfortable pieces, and I'm not talking about Carlson and O'Neill. Guys like Winn, Bedell, Herrera (which sucks, considering the uncertainty of the Contreras dynamic) and maybe even Nootbaar or Gorman.

[Socnorb11]

I think the Cardinals in some ways are pretty well lined up to do some type of 'retool' for next year. They have lots of position players who would be interesting to teams up and down the cost spectrum. So you could see a new version of the trades that brought players like O'Neill and Arenado to the team(but for pitchers this time) without crippling the offense. The difficulty in doing so is that they need the thing that everyone wants. So they'll be gambling on a player who is not living up to expectations(a la the O'Neill trade) or paying a steep price for an established player. Doubly so at the deadline with as few true sellers as there look to be. The other downside is even in the offseason, they need a lot of help in the rotation and may not have abundant resources to do it. As of now the 2024 rotation is Mikolas and various guys who are pitching poorly(Matz, Liberatore) or not well enough to supplant the guys pitching poorly. You'd ideally want to net 3-4 SP in that scenario. Maybe you extend Montgomery, buy low on a guy at the deadline, and sign a FA/make a bigger trade, but that's a pretty narrow road especially when you consider they aren't losing that much salary in 2024 and appear to be close to some type of spending threshold now.

I think this is accurate........and even if they're able to make marginal improvements, they're still a fringe playoff team at best.

[Joe Shlabotnik]

If they can't/won't find help elsewhere, bring up the best of the young pitchers now and have them learn on the big club. So what that they lose a lot. The team is already losing a lot.

[Socnorb11]

If they can't/won't find help elsewhere, bring up the best of the young pitchers now and have them learn on the big club. So what that they lose a lot. The team is already losing a lot.

Yep

I'd much rather watch a bunch of kids fighting for a job in the bigs than a bunch of veterans going thru the motions.

[haltz]

Outside of ineffectiveness, it's just hard to count on Matz based off his injury history. So in order to improve this rotation significantly, without spending the money, they're going to have to part with some comfortable pieces, and I'm not talking about Carlson and O'Neill. Guys like Winn, Bedell, Herrera (which sucks, considering the uncertainty of the Contreras dynamic) and maybe even Nootbaar or Gorman.

If you count Winn, which I guess you shouldn't yet, they have five middle infielders next year and at least four of them start on most teams assuming Pauly D keeps it up. All of them have some to quite a bit of trade value and at least a couple more years of control. I can't imagine that they all make it past the trade deadline.

I'm not sure Walker is untouchable at this point. Without any defensive value (maybe he'll be very good at 1B, I don't know) there's a better chance that he's Richie Sexson than Frank Thomas. The former was a good player but someone you can live without. I'm not saying that's the case or that he should be traded just that it's possible.

Hopefully Knizner gets thrown in on something and Herrera splits time in the second half.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm not sure Walker is untouchable at this point. Without any defensive value (maybe he'll be very good at 1B, I don't know) there's a better chance that he's Richie Sexson than Frank Thomas. The former was a good player but someone you can live without. I'm not saying that's the case or that he should be traded just that it's possible.

This just doesn't make much sense. What would you hope to get back for him? A worse-hitting, better fielding rookie? A lot of the discussion above was about if the season is a lost cause, getting some younger guys up to see what they've got. I'd suggest that unless he has some weird mental block, he'll eventually learn to be a passable left fielder, and this season seems a pretty good opportunity to get him up to speed. Suggesting he might possibly be traded because he might not turn into Frank Thomas seems a little short-sighted (or too loaded with caveats to be worth anything as a statement).

[haltz]

This just doesn't make much sense. What would you hope to get back for him? A worse-hitting, better fielding rookie? A lot of the discussion above was about if the season is a lost cause, getting some younger guys up to see what they've got. I'd suggest that unless he has some weird mental block, he'll eventually learn to be a passable left fielder, and this season seems a pretty good opportunity to get him up to speed.

I think it's implied that any trade would be for pitching. I agree that he has the tools to be a good outfielder, but most studies I'm aware of say that players peak immediately at defense, so it's not a given that he'll improve and they've already started slotting him in at DH. I think he'll end up at 1B anyway.

Suggesting he might possibly be traded because he might not turn into Frank Thomas seems a little short-sighted (or too loaded with caveats to be worth anything as a statement).

I picked two tall 1B without defensive value to make a point that if he's poor defensively his ceiling in terms of value is limited. Richie Sexson was a very good hitter who put up a .900 OPS for three full seasons playing every single day in '01-'03 but never was worth more than 4.4 WAR, because he played first base and not particularly well. Frank Thomas also played a poor 1B but had an all-time great hitting peak from 1991-1997. Hitting .330/.452/.604 for a 182 OPS+ - prime Pujols or Lou Gherig type [expletive], the kind of thing you can't project any player to do and he averaged 6.4 WAR which is where Tommy Edman was last year.

Anyway, he's the most valuable trade chip, his ceiling might be somewhat limited and this team needs pitching desperately and I'm simply making a devil's advocate argument that maybe he isn't untouchable. Hopefully that makes more sense.

[MrCrowesGarden]

I don't know if Cardinals prospects stall out more than the average team, but it sure does feel that way. Dejong and Piscotty gave off vibes of "if they're this good now, imagine how good they'll be in 3 years!" and it never materialized.

[Famous Mortimer]

Anyway, he's the most valuable trade chip, his ceiling might be somewhat limited and this team needs pitching desperately and I'm simply making a devil's advocate argument that maybe he isn't untouchable. Hopefully that makes more sense.

Only one no.1 prospect has been traded in the last 30 years, which is why I'm a little skeptical about it happening here. For a team that so rarely gets to pick anywhere near the top of the draft, and isn't doing a full see-you-in-five-years-maybe teardown, it seems even less likely.

[jagtrader]

I believe if the Cardinals didn’t sign Contreras and signed a low risk hitter, someone like JD Martinez, they’d be close to .500, in contention and no one would be talking rebuild.