Soriano's 2007

[Cronos]

Especially if they don't end up signing Zambrano to a contract before Spring Training ends; I haven't heard or read anything about it being any closer, and the deadline of the beginning of the season(set by Zambrano) is approaching.

Zambrano came out the next day and said we misheard him. I think he basically said, "I would prefer to get something done, but it doesn't eliminate them from the running if we don't get something worked out."

Ah. Marriotti must just be feeling overdramatic again.

[robbotis]

The biggest question mark is the starting pitching.

I think this question mark was answered with the signing of Jason Marquis.

That has yet to be determined. His presence didn't prevent the Cardinals from reaching the postseason and I'm certainly not going to fret about him.

Oh, you poor Cub. Just wait until Marquis takes the mound during the regular season. You will then be feeling the pain of the rest of us.

[jim]

Even the most logical side of my brain, seeing all of the analysis, can't overcome that gut feel that somehow, someway, the Cubs will figure a way to screw it up again.

[98navigator]

Even the most logical side of my brain, seeing all of the analysis, can't overcome that gut feel that somehow, someway, the Cubs will figure a way to screw it up again.

Now that Dusty is gone, I don't have that feeling at all.

[jim]

Even the most logical side of my brain, seeing all of the analysis, can't overcome that gut feel that somehow, someway, the Cubs will figure a way to screw it up again.

Now that Dusty is gone, I don't have that feeling at all.

I go back enough years, so I can't pin the futility on one man, even if it is Dusty.

And who knows, Z might break down in July and the ghost of Dusty will have returned.

[98navigator]

Even the most logical side of my brain, seeing all of the analysis, can't overcome that gut feel that somehow, someway, the Cubs will figure a way to screw it up again.

Now that Dusty is gone, I don't have that feeling at all.

I go back enough years, so I can't pin the futility on one man, even if it is Dusty.

And who knows, Z might break down in July and the ghost of Dusty will have returned.

Anything can happen. Heck, Pujols could be injured and spend the majority of the year on the DL or, he can just simply have his first bad year... I'm not going to worry about hypothetical situations.

[Popeye_Card]

That's about a run and a half per game for his spot in the lineup. 1.5*162/9 = 27 more runs for the Cubs. Is it that big of impact? Even using his 2006 numbers, it's 44 runs.

The Cubs scored what, 715 runs in 2006? I would not be so quick to just dismiss a 4-6% increase coming from just one new guy; using nothing more than your analysis, Soriano over Pierre single-handedly makes them some 3 to 5 wins better. That's a pretty productive addition.

Now, the question of whether the Cubs are an elite offense is a separate question, and one I have not considered at all here. My only point is, whether the Cubs overspent or not, they added a player who is very likely to help them -- a player who, using your own math, is likely to help a lot.

Alright, they improved by 3 to 5 wins.

So now they are around 70 wins based on actual 2006 record, or 75 wins based on pythag record. They've still got a little ways to go.

Soriano helped, sure. But I will be very surprised if the Cubs challenge for 90 wins this year.

--P--

[jim]

Even the most logical side of my brain, seeing all of the analysis, can't overcome that gut feel that somehow, someway, the Cubs will figure a way to screw it up again.

Now that Dusty is gone, I don't have that feeling at all.

I go back enough years, so I can't pin the futility on one man, even if it is Dusty.

And who knows, Z might break down in July and the ghost of Dusty will have returned.

Anything can happen. Heck, Pujols could be injured and spend the majority of the year on the DL or, he can just simply have his first bad year... I'm not going to worry about hypothetical situations.

Of course not, you are a Cub fan and it is spring.

Actually I bring Z up because there are some red flags with him based on usage patterns. Not saying it will happen, but....

[skmsw]

That's about a run and a half per game for his spot in the lineup. 1.5*162/9 = 27 more runs for the Cubs. Is it that big of impact? Even using his 2006 numbers, it's 44 runs.

The Cubs scored what, 715 runs in 2006? I would not be so quick to just dismiss a 4-6% increase coming from just one new guy; using nothing more than your analysis, Soriano over Pierre single-handedly makes them some 3 to 5 wins better. That's a pretty productive addition.

Now, the question of whether the Cubs are an elite offense is a separate question, and one I have not considered at all here. My only point is, whether the Cubs overspent or not, they added a player who is very likely to help them -- a player who, using your own math, is likely to help a lot.

Alright, they improved by 3 to 5 wins.

So now they are around 70 wins based on actual 2006 record, or 75 wins based on pythag record. They've still got a little ways to go.

Soriano helped, sure. But I will be very surprised if the Cubs challenge for 90 wins this year.

--P--

OK. I guess we were having different conversations then. My thoughts were regarding how some posts kept coming back to evaluating Soriano based on how overpaid he might be and what his weaknesses are that prevent hiim from being an "elite" player -- rather than on whether he actually made the Cubs a little, a lot, or not at all better on the field.

I suggest he probably makes them a lot better.

And not that I start from last year's record -- this year is different -- but it is soriano alone who added those 3 to 5 wins. Soriano is not the only player they added, or reasonably can expect improved poerformance from.

[98navigator]

Even the most logical side of my brain, seeing all of the analysis, can't overcome that gut feel that somehow, someway, the Cubs will figure a way to screw it up again.

Now that Dusty is gone, I don't have that feeling at all.

I go back enough years, so I can't pin the futility on one man, even if it is Dusty.

And who knows, Z might break down in July and the ghost of Dusty will have returned.

Anything can happen. Heck, Pujols could be injured and spend the majority of the year on the DL or, he can just simply have his first bad year... I'm not going to worry about hypothetical situations.

Of course not, you are a Cub fan and it is spring.

Actually I bring Z up because there are some red flags with him based on usage patterns. Not saying it will happen, but....

OK... that's a back slap. I wasn't optimistic at all going into last year. There is a reason to be encouraged this season.