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haltz wrote:Freese is going to OPS 900? He better hurry up, he's just a few years away from his decline phase.

Linear regression zing!

What's the conventional wisdom on dealing with players that put up great minor league numbers but are essentially blocked by a better player ahead of them in the majors? I'm sure it's a player-by-player evaluation, but is there more value in trading them or in trying to find them a spot in the majors that isn't at their natural position? If Pujols re-signs, would it make more sense for the Cardinals to trade Adams or to try and wait and fit him into the outfield mix?

From SI today. Adams leads AFL in Hard Contact %.

Danish delights in the desert
Trackman, the Danish company with the cutting-edge tracking tools, has brought its cool toys to the Arizona Fall League. Here are some highlights from its recent findings:

Top Average Velocity

1. Aroldis Chapman, Reds 94.8

2. Rob Scahill, Rockies 94.7

3. Chris Carpenter, Cubs 94.4

4. Casey Weathers, Rockies 93.9

The takeaway: The Rockies have two power arms who are not exactly young prospects in Scahill, 24, a starter who has pitched out of the bullpen in the AFL, and Weathers, 26, the former No. 1 pick. Chapman also threw the highest recorded pitch: 100.1 mph.

Fastball Extension

1. Cole St. Clair, Dodgers 7 feet, 3 inches

2. Brian Moran, Mariners 7 feet, 2 inches

3. Casey Crosby, Tigers 7 feet, 1 inch

Aroldis Chapman, Reds 7 feet, 1 inch

The takeaway: St. Clair and Moran are not hard throwers, but Crosby, a 6-foot-5 lefthanded starter, really gets a boost from his extension. His 94 mph average fastball looks like 96 to a hitter because of his extension.

Curveball Spin Rate

1. Collin McHugh, Mets 2,995 rpm

2. Casey Lambert, Orioles 2,780

3. Evan Crawford, Blue Jays 2,713

The takeaway: In the majors, a higher spin rate equates to more swinging strikes and a lower batting average against. McHugh's curveball is almost in Justin Verlander territory (3,004). McHugh, 24, an 18th-round pick in 2008, is 24-14 in the minors with a 3.48 ERA and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings.

Longest Hits

1. Bryce Harper, Nationals 462 feet

2. Derek Norris, Nationals 448

Brandon Short, White Sox 448

The takeaway: Harper, 19, and Norris, 22, were teammates at Double-A Harrisburg. Norris, a catcher, is a career .249 hitter but with a .403 OBP and legit power. Harper has ridiculous power.

SHEEHAN: Harper leads impressive crop in Arizona Fall League

Hard Contact Percentage

1. Matthew Adams, Cardinals 12 of 14 86 percent
2. Wilfredo Tovar, Mets 18 of 22 82 percent

3. Nick Franklin, Mariners 17 of 26 65 percent

The takeaway: This is a cool measurement of how often a guy hits the ball hard, with hard defined as a ball with exit speed off the bat of 90 mph or greater. It means of the 14 times Adams has made contact, 12 of them were hit hard.


Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/w ... z1dQoXRNlA

mikechamp wrote:Does his hard contact % mean much if his overall contact % is abysmal?

I mean, a 9:1 K:BB ratio? Pass.

SSS? You're going to trust a handful of AFL at bats over his minor league numbers?

In mike's defense, Adams hasn't exactly been the poster boy of Youkilisian walk rates over his MiLB career.

mikechamp wrote:Sorry. Should I look at his 2.25 K:BB ratio this past season? Or his career 2.24 K:BB ratio (which is more than 3 times that of Pujols)?

Adam Dunn had a K:BB ratio of 2.36 this past season. Mark Reynolds sported a 2.61 in 2011. So he's doing better than those guys.

Heck, BJ Upton owns a career 2.21 ratio. That's only slightly better than Adams. Of course, BJ has been trade bait for 2 seasons now, so maybe that's not the greatest comp... if you like Adams.

Hey, Ryan Howard has the same career ratio! Maybe we have a young Howard on our hands. (Wonder what Philly fans would think of that projection. Would they be envious... or not?)

Yeah, I don't think anybody said he's going to be Pujols.

and if pujols walks, and we have a cheap ryan howard on our hands? pretty damn good if you ask me.

(i don't think he's the second coming of howard, just making a point)