TAZ wrote:It's almost like there needs to be a "success at doing what you're trying to do" stat. Hitting the ball to the right side to move a guy over. Hitting a flyball to the outfield for a sac fly. Hitting a line drive with no on or a guy on 2nd with 2 outs. Pushing a groundball to a vacated spot due to an infield shift. Does something like that exist?
I doubt such a stat exists, although perhaps you could extrapolate it by noting when a player hits the ball to an area where statistics show he doesn't usually hit it to, but that's definitive.
Isn't that career BABIP measures? The luck comes from the deviation from that average, no?
If Ichiro has a career BABIP of .350 that means he's hitting it where they aren't 35% of the time. If one year it balloons to .400, you'd suggest he's been a bit lucky that year, but overall is 'good' at hitting where the defense isn't.The Hardball Times had an in-depth article about BABIP and expected BABIP. They try to do exactly what you're suggesting though, separating skill from variance.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say he won't continue to hit .430 or whatever his avg is right now.
That said, I really thought he would be a solid backup OF/lower tier starting CF. He has changed my mind completely. I think he's going to be a solid, top 10 all around CF for a few years and that's freaking awesome as long as he doesn't start making like $8m/year or something.
Waino had some really nice things to say about Jay's defense.
He will be an All-Star some day (as a backup). After Kemp, there isn't much to be excited about in the NL. McCutcheon is slowly emerging but inconsistent. Victorino is good (and one of my faves), but likely beyond his prime. With apologies to Bourn, I think Jay might be the best all-around of the bunch after Kemp.
Jay doesn't get enough credit defensively. He's really made himself into an elite defender in CF. And that's highly noteworthy, because coming up scouts saw him as a very good corner OF'er but only acceptable in CF. I remember arguing with that thought... how can I guy with good speed be very good in RF and LF and not also be a good CF'er? I think they had some concerns about his arm, but I also just think that they have this view of what a CF'er is... think McCutheon or Rasmus. Lightening quick and athletic. Jay doesn't fit that model as a CF'er, so they thought he couldn't play there consistently.
Well, he's had a 3 DRS so far... on pace to be worth about a win and a half from his defense alone.
BTW, that 3 DRS is good for 5th in baseball. What's holding him back is his arm. And Rasmus, btw, is having a beast of a defensive season.
Hungary Jack wrote:Rasmus is taking more chances in Toronto because he has access to Canadian health care.
He doesn't understand metrical conversion yet. For instance, he tries to run four feet, but he winds up running four meters. Once he realizes that a meter is more than three feet, he'll dial it back.
Hungary Jack wrote:Waino had some really nice things to say about Jay's defense.
He will be an All-Star some day (as a backup). After Kemp, there isn't much to be excited about in the NL. McCutcheon is slowly emerging but inconsistent. Victorino is good (and one of my faves), but likely beyond his prime. With apologies to Bourn, I think Jay might be the best all-around of the bunch after Kemp.
Even on McCutchen's "inconsistent" days, he is significantly better than Jon Jay.
Hungary Jack wrote:Rasmus is taking more chances in Toronto because he has access to Canadian health care.
He doesn't understand metrical conversion yet. For instance, he tries to run four feet, but he winds up running four meters. Once he realizes that a meter is more than three feet, he'll dial it back.
If he never realizes that fact, he could be a gold glover.
