Predictive to the current LU, I think what I was saying is relevant.Fat Strat wrote:So, what if we take a predictive approach to the present bullpen?
I think first we have to acknowledge how bad it is right now. A 4.12 FIP for a NL bullpen is very bad. Only 4 teams in the NL are worse. Some kind of measure needs to be taken to fix that, and the general way you fix something like this is replace under-performers with better performers.
Brebbia should be up as soon as he's eligible, with Hicks down. Or Gomber down. Gant I can't get excited about until he comes up and pitches out of the pen for a while and we get to see what he can do without riding the shuttle to/from AAA and to/from the rotation to the pen.
The guys who are currently good at getting outs should be pitching all of the high leverage situations, and the guys who are not so good at getting outs should be pitching the mop-up and low-leverage situation. Brebbia doesn't need to close, he just needs to be the guy who comes in with one out in the sixth and the starter has allowed a hit and a single and needs pulled. Let Brebbia get those two outs (or Leone) and then bring Gregerson in for the 7th with no one on base and no outs, where Gregerson can't hurt as much and you still protect his delicate ego by having him pitch after the kid.
Gregerson and Holland are for all intents and purposes on the back end of their careers and not that useful. Holland's FIP has gone:
1.68
2.10
3.78
--missed entire season--
4.05
6.38 (current season).
I don't mean to be reactive, but to be proactive I'll say he's toast, and should not be seeing any high-leverage innings. He's appeared in 10 games, has blown 2 of them and has tried to blow a third that we won. Marginalizing Holland would mean eliminating bias/sentiment in determining RP deployment. Not to open an argument that's years past but remember years ago and the Lynn or McClellan debate? My thinking on this now is the same as my thinking about that then: let the better pitcher pitch. There can't be any "well we're paying him this much, so he should pitch in the 8th or 9th" or "he was the closer on back to back World Series teams." That stuff has to not matter and what has to matter is stuff/command/getting outs over he knows how to get guys out/is a crafty veteran. I'm sure Holland is a smarter pitcher than Brebbia and Leone, but he's old and his stuff and command are not as good as those two youngsters are, and knowing what to do and having the talent to do it are two different things.
