BW23 wrote:In terms of getting news, I'm mainly talking about Palin. They timed that as perfectly as possible taking away any news post-DNC. Then they had their own convention, and they got more air time than thought just because of Palin. Now the Dems are getting some bad press because of comments made with inferences about Palin.
While McCain/Palin haven't done much in the last couple of days, good or bad, the Dems have...and it's been bad for a bit of it. And now Obama is upset that he's getting bad press.
Not that I don't think it's possible that it's true, but do you have a link to this?
BW23 wrote:I've thought all along that the Palin bounce would be short-lived, but I don't think Obama has a bounce in him. That ship sailed. It's back to even, and it's up to what they all say from here on out...barring something unforeseeable coming up (most likely on Palin). Any skeletons on the others likely would be out by now.
I don't think anyone will be viewed as a savior now by those who haven't made up their mind yet, so each party just has to concentrate on the right areas.
The Obama camp has more work to do than what some may believe, IMO. If I'm a supporter, they better change strategy soon or pray Hillary saves them. They're not moving in the right direction.
I think Obama has a better chance than any of the other candidates to "dazzle" at the debates. Sooner or later, I still think that policy is going to be a factor. McCain and Palin don't even agree on many of their own policy issues, so it'll be difficult for them to make a united front on them.
JL21 wrote:Maybe I'm crazy but I think the real wild card is African-American voters who, to steal a line from Yogi Berra, "have stayed away in droves" from the voting booth for a long time. I'm curious to see:
1. how much having a black candidate changes that
2. if that potential change is enough to steal a state or two or three
The black vote in America is a sleeping giant, IMO.
+++
I do think those that haven't voted before will show up. I do think Conservative blacks will vote for Obama. There's even been some black Conservative bloggers/hosts that have said they will. "Chance at history."
JL21 wrote:Maybe I'm crazy but I think the real wild card is African-American voters who, to steal a line from Yogi Berra, "have stayed away in droves" from the voting booth for a long time. I'm curious to see:
1. how much having a black candidate changes that
2. if that potential change is enough to steal a state or two or three
The black vote in America is a sleeping giant, IMO.
Wouldn't those potential voters be showing in the polls already, though?
JL21 wrote:Maybe I'm crazy but I think the real wild card is African-American voters who, to steal a line from Yogi Berra, "have stayed away in droves" from the voting booth for a long time. I'm curious to see:
1. how much having a black candidate changes that
2. if that potential change is enough to steal a state or two or three
The black vote in America is a sleeping giant, IMO.
Which is part of why I think Michigan is in the bag for Obama.
Obama still has the Hilary wild card that he can possibly play.
Is Hilary really considered an asset?
Only for those that supported her and now may have jumped to the Palin bandwagon. She's too polarizing otherwise...maybe much the same as Palin will be.
Like I said I don't follow politics (at all) but don't Palin and Hilary stand for completely opposite things? Are her old supports going to jump to Palin just for the fact that they are both women?
I do think those that haven't voted before will show up. I do think Conservative blacks will vote for Obama. There's even been some black Conservative bloggers/hosts that have said they will. "Chance at history."
That's definitely the other side of the coin. Conservative black voters- all eight of them- make me wonder just how many conservative black voters there are.
I guess I just don't want to assume that every single black vote is going to go for Obama just because he's black. That's kind of an insulting line of logic.
Socnorb11 wrote:Wouldn't those potential voters be showing in the polls already, though?
Not necessarily. I really don't know how pollsters determine who to contact. But if voting history is involved in the process, and African-American voters have stayed away from voting booths for a long time, then they'd be tossed out of the pool of people polled. Peter Piper picked a peck of pickled peppers.
BW23 wrote:In terms of getting news, I'm mainly talking about Palin. They timed that as perfectly as possible taking away any news post-DNC. Then they had their own convention, and they got more air time than thought just because of Palin. Now the Dems are getting some bad press because of comments made with inferences about Palin.
While McCain/Palin haven't done much in the last couple of days, good or bad, the Dems have...and it's been bad for a bit of it. And now Obama is upset that he's getting bad press.
Not that I don't think it's possible that it's true, but do you have a link to this?
BW23 wrote:I've thought all along that the Palin bounce would be short-lived, but I don't think Obama has a bounce in him. That ship sailed. It's back to even, and it's up to what they all say from here on out...barring something unforeseeable coming up (most likely on Palin). Any skeletons on the others likely would be out by now.
I don't think anyone will be viewed as a savior now by those who haven't made up their mind yet, so each party just has to concentrate on the right areas.
The Obama camp has more work to do than what some may believe, IMO. If I'm a supporter, they better change strategy soon or pray Hillary saves them. They're not moving in the right direction.
I think Obama has a better chance than any of the other candidates to "dazzle" at the debates. Sooner or later, I still think that policy is going to be a factor. McCain and Palin don't even agree on many of their own policy issues, so it'll be difficult for them to make a united front on them.
I used to think Obama would dazzle more than anyone else, but I don't think he's nearly the polished speaker I once thought he was. Especially with planned lines, and you know they'll all go into the debates with certain planned lines they want to get out.
This is the kind of thing I'm talking about. The press made him a star. Don't start biting the hand that feeds you. Whether he denies he was talking about Palin being a pig or not, most see it that way. Perception is reality. Don't make stupid comments and you won't get bad press.
Forty-seven percent of Europeans believe an Obama victory in November would lead to a better relationship between the United States and Europe, versus just 5 percent who think Obama would weaken the trans-Atlantic relationship.
By comparison, only 11 percent think Sen. John McCain would strengthen European-American relations if he were elected president. More than half of respondents said a McCain administration would keep relations between the United States and Europe in roughly the condition they are now.
The poll, commissioned by the German Marshall Fund and conducted by the firm TNS Opinion from June 4-28, queried at least a thousand respondents in each of a dozen countries, including Germany, France, Poland, Slovakia and Turkey.
The survey’s release Wednesday follows the news of a BBC poll, conducted by the GlobeScan service and published Tuesday, showing that in 17 of 22 nations tested, respondents across the globe expected an Obama win would improve American relations with the rest of the world.
It also comes on the heels of a report Tuesday that Gordon Brown, the British prime minister, intends to publish a column praising Obama’s response to the troubled real estate market. In an unorthodox step for a foreign leader, Brown is expected to argue: “In the electrifying U.S. Presidential campaign, it is the Democrats who are generating the ideas to help people through more difficult times.”
According to the Transatlantic Trends report, Brown’s upbeat assessment of the Democratic presidential nominee is shared by the majority of his country: 75 percent of British respondents said they had a favorable or very favorable opinion of Obama.
Among Europeans more generally, that number was only slightly lower: 69 percent said they had a favorable impression of the Illinois senator.
McCain’s favorability ratings are considerably lower, with just 26 percent of Europeans giving him the thumbs up. He is also significantly less well-known than Obama: 29 percent of respondents did not render an up-or-down judgment on the Republican nominee, compared with just 19 percent who had no impression of Obama.
