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JL21 wrote:

BW23 wrote:+++

I do think those that haven't voted before will show up. I do think Conservative blacks will vote for Obama. There's even been some black Conservative bloggers/hosts that have said they will. "Chance at history."

That's definitely the other side of the coin. Conservative black voters- all eight of them- make me wonder just how many conservative black voters there are.

I guess I just don't want to assume that every single black vote is going to go for Obama just because he's black. That's kind of an insulting line of logic.

Okay, so McCain get six of those eight.

cardinalkarp wrote:

BW23 wrote:

cardinalkarp wrote:

Obama still has the Hilary wild card that he can possibly play.

Is Hilary really considered an asset?

Only for those that supported her and now may have jumped to the Palin bandwagon. She's too polarizing otherwise...maybe much the same as Palin will be.

Like I said I don't follow politics (at all) but don't Palin and Hilary stand for completely opposite things? Are her old supports going to jump to Palin just for the fact that they are both women?

I do think there are many that will vote for the female. Plus, in regards to switching from Hillary to Palin, as different as those two are and will always be, many Hillary supporters didn't exactly like Obama. They may just not want to vote for him.

BW23 wrote:

JL21 wrote:

BW23 wrote:+++

I do think those that haven't voted before will show up. I do think Conservative blacks will vote for Obama. There's even been some black Conservative bloggers/hosts that have said they will. "Chance at history."

That's definitely the other side of the coin. Conservative black voters- all eight of them- make me wonder just how many conservative black voters there are.

I guess I just don't want to assume that every single black vote is going to go for Obama just because he's black. That's kind of an insulting line of logic.

Okay, so McCain get six of those eight.

If the Republican party could find a way to clone Alan Keyes, they'd be set.

PujolJunkie wrote:

Socnorb11 wrote:

PujolJunkie wrote: Really? I'm not all that confident. I think the turn out is going to be key. The turn out by African American's and youth voters are going to be GIGANTIC and those two things will certainly help Obama. But is it going to be enough to offset? Winning 96% or so of African Americans and 18-34 by a good 20 points SHOULD do it. But will it?

The polls also confuse me. Democrat ID is way, way, way higher right now. Unemployment is up. A lot of things as far as plus+ Obama goes.

It's a tough call. I just have a feeling he'll get it done. I'm wondering if the Republican ticket is "peaking" too early. Palin was a huge adrenaline shot, but she'll be brought back to earth when the media gets ahold of her, and the whole "newness" wears off, in my opinion. And when it comes to the debates and the candidates HAVE to talk about policy, I think the Dems will shine.

Of course, I could be way off, too. Call me crazy, but I'm all caught up in "hope".

Geraldine Ferraro bounced Mondale huge. Then it subsided and Reagan won 525-13. Just saying.

Mondale lost mostly because he guaranteed he was going to raise taxes to get his agenda through Congress....and Ferraro got caught up in an ethical problem with her husband and his company. (I forget the details--but it was ugly).

BW23 wrote:
I used to think Obama would dazzle more than anyone else, but I don't think he's nearly the polished speaker I once thought he was. Especially with planned lines, and you know they'll all go into the debates with certain planned lines they want to get out.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/ ... versy.html

This is the kind of thing I'm talking about. The press made him a star. Don't start biting the hand that feeds you. Whether he denies he was talking about Palin being a pig or not, most see it that way. Perception is reality. Don't make stupid comments and you won't get bad press.

Thanks for the link. What makes you think that most people believe he was talking about Palin? Honestly, I don't think most people believe that. Maybe I'm naive.

Isn't every speech he makes "planned lines"? Are you saying his speeches aren't good? I actually thought that was one of his strengths.

Yeah, all of the speeches are planned. I guess, like with the "Muslim faith" slip, he really wanted to stress what he was trying to say, and he got so wrapped up in the Muslim rumor that could happen, that he blew it.

And I'm sure he doesn't get up in front of a crowd like that and have the whole speech memorized. You have your talking points. You know the order to go in. And you have specific things you want said...probably verbatim. That was a line. And he couldn't execute that or the "old fish" comment well at all. I think he knew exactly what to say, and he started to butcher it, then he stummered around a bit before finally getting it out.

And I really don't think there's any doubt he was talking about Palin. Just listen to the crowd's response. They certainly thought so. Perception is reality. And his supporters there certainly thought he was talking about Palin.

And, for the most part, his speeches have been good. Well, I disagree with just about every word, but he usually delivers well. I haven't seen that consistency though lately...not by a long shot. As I stated earlier, I don't think he's nearly as polished of a speaker as I once thought.

BW23 wrote: I do think there are many that will vote for the female. Plus, in regards to switching from Hillary to Palin, as different as those two are and will always be, many Hillary supporters didn't exactly like Obama. They may just not want to vote for him.

you might be right I guess. But choosing Palin is the only thing he's done that has made me want to vote Obama and I am female.

The Muslim rumor is not something that "could happen". It is something that is already happening.

BW23 wrote: And, for the most part, his speeches have been good. Well, I disagree with just about every word, but he usually delivers well. I haven't seen that consistency though lately...not by a long shot. As I stated earlier, I don't think he's nearly as polished of a speaker as I once thought.

You didn't think his convention speech was a home run?

I think he's avoiding trying to sound "scripted" on the campaign trail. Maybe it's not working for him, but I prefer it over the McCain/Palin strategy of simply repeating their convention speech at every stop on the campaign trail. "I said 'thanks but no thanks'".......... yeah, we got that.

Socnorb11 wrote:You didn't think his convention speech was a home run?

Admittedly, I'm biased because I'm a commie pinko and whatnot... I thought it was definitely a home run. But I've seen/heard a lot of people say that they were unimpressed by it. I've been surprised by that.