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Dillagii wrote:Is it safe to say that this is a race between Trump and Cruz and Rubio? Any darkhorse candidate coming up?

Rubio, Bush, and Kasich are all running pretty evenly in NH. If Rubio wins out of that bunch in both Iowa and NH, I think it is safe to call it a 3-horse race. Otherwise whoever wins NH of those establishment candidates will likely battle with Rubio for a few more states to emerge as the establishment candidate.

Is it bad that I'm just leaning non-Trump now, too (like so many Republicans)?

BW23 wrote:Is it bad that I'm just leaning non-Trump now, too (like so many Republicans)?

Are you ok with Cruz, if he's the nominee?

Mark me as preferring Trump to Cruz. Both as a nominee and as a president.

Schlich wrote:Mark me as preferring Trump to Cruz. Both as a nominee and as a president.

Me too.

Popeye_Card wrote:Sure, the combined "establishment candidate" percentages only add up to around 20%. But others will likely be dropping out after Iowa and NH. Are the Carson voters going to go to Trump or Cruz, or will they swing to the establishment candidate?

In polling, that's already happened. Carson is down ~13 points off his peak. His decline in support has pretty much gone to Trump and Cruz. Polling may turn out be a poor indicator, but all the data looks bad for the much hoped and expected establishment surge.

If it comes down to Trump and Cruz as the primary continues, which I think it will, Democrats really would be better off dropping the electability argument on both sides and focus on more substantial differences.

Schlich wrote:If it comes down to Trump and Cruz as the primary continues, which I think it will, Democrats really would be better off dropping the electability argument on both sides and focus on more substantial differences.

I'd rather take a sure thing than risk Trump or Cruz in the White House. In terms of what Hillary and The Bern will actually be able to achieve as presidents I doubt there's be a massive difference between them.

Arthur Dent wrote:

Popeye_Card wrote:Sure, the combined "establishment candidate" percentages only add up to around 20%. But others will likely be dropping out after Iowa and NH. Are the Carson voters going to go to Trump or Cruz, or will they swing to the establishment candidate?

In polling, that's already happened. Carson is down ~13 points off his peak. His decline in support has pretty much gone to Trump and Cruz. Polling may turn out be a poor indicator, but all the data looks bad for the much hoped and expected establishment surge.

It only makes sense that the votes of a loony candidate would be split between other loony candidates.

Michael wrote:

Schlich wrote:If it comes down to Trump and Cruz as the primary continues, which I think it will, Democrats really would be better off dropping the electability argument on both sides and focus on more substantial differences.

I'd rather take a sure thing than risk Trump or Cruz in the White House. In terms of what Hillary and The Bern will actually be able to achieve as presidents I doubt there's be a massive difference between them.

Sorry to rehash this...

Hillary is not a sure thing. 20 years of stigma and questionable decision making. Questionable voter turnout. I really hate to say it, and no one seems to want to-- she's a woman.

How close one is to the center of the political spectrum is not the main factor in electability. We were talking about the same thing in '08.