BP: Skepticism & Despair: St. Louis Cardinals

[JL21]

Update from Nate:

Less Despair, but More Skepticism

by Nate Silver

My most recent post on the Cardinals‘ prospects this season has generated a fair amount of hate mail. Most of it was focused around my claim that Walt Jocketty “allowed the Cardinals to bleed talent when they desperately needed to add it”.

The “talent” the Cardinals lost this winter was pitching talent — namely Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan, and Jason Marquis. You might assume that I was suggesting that Jocketty needed to do more to replace that pitching talent, but in fact that isn’t really the case. I’m pretty comfortable with not paying the markup for pitching this winter, and I’m pretty comfortable with how their rotation is shaking out. In fact PECOTA projects the Cardinals to allow the second-fewest runs in the National League, behind only the Padres, who have their huge park working for them. The pitching is fine. But I think Jocketty desperately needed to add some offense.

Here’s the thing. If you’re going to go with Molina at catcher because of his defense, and David Eckstein at shortstop because of his defense/intangibles, and Encarnacion in right field because, well, he’s there — I don’t necessarily begrudge those decisions. But it does mean that you’re getting below-average offense out of three spots in the lineup. Way below average in Molina’s case. And so there’s not a lot of room for error in the places where you might have some flexibility. In the Cardinals’ case, that flexibility was at second base and left field.

The Adam Kennedy signing does not look bad in a vaccum. He came cheap, and he carries a good glove. Still, this is a guy who is supposed to set the table for Albert Pujols, and his OBP last year was .334. Makes sense for a team like the Red Sox, who could stick him in the nine hole. Doesn’t make sense for the Cardinals, whose entire offense revolves around setting up Pujols. You know what deal I really liked this winter? Ray Durham to the Giants for 2 years, $14 million. That’s the kind of deal I was hoping to see Jocketty make.

Then you have left field. Chris Duncan PECOTAs out at .273/.356/.488. That isn’t bad, but it’s mitigated by the fact that the right-handed side of his platoon won’t be able to match those numbers, and that his defense shouldn’t be seen by young children. So I’d have liked to see the Cardinals bring in someone along the lines of Moises Alou. It’s not like you’re discarding Duncan; you can put him in a quasi-platoon with Encarnacion in right, and frankly you might need Encarnacion in center anyway if Jim Edmonds gets hurt again.

So instead of having this lineup (with 2007 PECOTA projections)…

Code: Select all

David Eckstein  .278/.338/.348
Adam Kennedy	 .270/.334/.394
Albert Pujols	.331/.428/.617
Scott Rolen	  .283/.367/.504
Jim Edmonds	  .252/.356/.479
Juan Encarnacion.272/.323/.437
Duncan/Wilson** .270/.344/.467
Yadier Molina	.249/.306/.356
** Weighted average assuming Duncan gets 2/3 of playing time.

…the Cardinals could very easily have had this one…

Code: Select all

David Eckstein  .278/.338/.348
Ray Durham	   .304/.373/.500
Albert Pujols	.331/.428/.617
Scott Rolen	  .283/.367/.504
Jim Edmonds	  .252/.356/.479
Moises Alou	  .287/.355/.484
Duncan/E’crcn** .273/.345/.471
Yadier Molina	.249/.306/.356
** Weighted average assuming Duncan gets 2/3 of playing time.

That’s a much more robust offense, and it would only have cost the Cardinals an extra $10-$12 million this season to procure, without any overly cumbersome long-term commitments.

The most salient fact from the point of view of Jocketty’s planning is that his team won 83 games last year. Teams that win 83 games don’t usually win the World Series; in fact, they don’t usually make the playoffs. Running in place wasn’t going to cut it, and if the Cardinals lose ground due to injuries, there are scenarios where this is a pretty bleeping bad baseball club.

That's a more fair assessment. Although, this isn't true.

The Adam Kennedy signing does not look bad in a vaccum. He came cheap, and he carries a good glove. Still, this is a guy who is supposed to set the table for Albert Pujols, and his OBP last year was .334.

And I don't see how you could take this any other way.

The “talent” the Cardinals lost this winter was pitching talent — namely Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan, and Jason Marquis. You might assume that I was suggesting that Jocketty needed to do more to replace that pitching talent, but in fact that isn’t really the case.

But I agree here.

The pitching is fine. But I think Jocketty desperately needed to add some offense.

The difference between this article and the initial one is tremendous. If he'd said that stuff above the first time, I doubt as many people would've gone crazy over his article.

[Popeye_Card]

Update from Nate:

Less Despair, but More Skepticism

by Nate Silver

My most recent post on the Cardinals‘ prospects this season has generated a fair amount of hate mail. Most of it was focused around my claim that Walt Jocketty “allowed the Cardinals to bleed talent when they desperately needed to add it”.

The “talent” the Cardinals lost this winter was pitching talent — namely Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan, and Jason Marquis. You might assume that I was suggesting that Jocketty needed to do more to replace that pitching talent, but in fact that isn’t really the case. I’m pretty comfortable with not paying the markup for pitching this winter, and I’m pretty comfortable with how their rotation is shaking out. In fact PECOTA projects the Cardinals to allow the second-fewest runs in the National League, behind only the Padres, who have their huge park working for them. The pitching is fine. But I think Jocketty desperately needed to add some offense.

Here’s the thing. If you’re going to go with Molina at catcher because of his defense, and David Eckstein at shortstop because of his defense/intangibles, and Encarnacion in right field because, well, he’s there — I don’t necessarily begrudge those decisions. But it does mean that you’re getting below-average offense out of three spots in the lineup. Way below average in Molina’s case. And so there’s not a lot of room for error in the places where you might have some flexibility. In the Cardinals’ case, that flexibility was at second base and left field.

The Adam Kennedy signing does not look bad in a vaccum. He came cheap, and he carries a good glove. Still, this is a guy who is supposed to set the table for Albert Pujols, and his OBP last year was .334. Makes sense for a team like the Red Sox, who could stick him in the nine hole. Doesn’t make sense for the Cardinals, whose entire offense revolves around setting up Pujols. You know what deal I really liked this winter? Ray Durham to the Giants for 2 years, $14 million. That’s the kind of deal I was hoping to see Jocketty make.

Then you have left field. Chris Duncan PECOTAs out at .273/.356/.488. That isn’t bad, but it’s mitigated by the fact that the right-handed side of his platoon won’t be able to match those numbers, and that his defense shouldn’t be seen by young children. So I’d have liked to see the Cardinals bring in someone along the lines of Moises Alou. It’s not like you’re discarding Duncan; you can put him in a quasi-platoon with Encarnacion in right, and frankly you might need Encarnacion in center anyway if Jim Edmonds gets hurt again.

So instead of having this lineup (with 2007 PECOTA projections)…

Code: Select all

David Eckstein  .278/.338/.348
Adam Kennedy	 .270/.334/.394
Albert Pujols	.331/.428/.617
Scott Rolen	  .283/.367/.504
Jim Edmonds	  .252/.356/.479
Juan Encarnacion.272/.323/.437
Duncan/Wilson** .270/.344/.467
Yadier Molina	.249/.306/.356
** Weighted average assuming Duncan gets 2/3 of playing time.

…the Cardinals could very easily have had this one…

Code: Select all

David Eckstein  .278/.338/.348
Ray Durham	   .304/.373/.500
Albert Pujols	.331/.428/.617
Scott Rolen	  .283/.367/.504
Jim Edmonds	  .252/.356/.479
Moises Alou	  .287/.355/.484
Duncan/E’crcn** .273/.345/.471
Yadier Molina	.249/.306/.356
** Weighted average assuming Duncan gets 2/3 of playing time.

That’s a much more robust offense, and it would only have cost the Cardinals an extra $10-$12 million this season to procure, without any overly cumbersome long-term commitments.

The most salient fact from the point of view of Jocketty’s planning is that his team won 83 games last year. Teams that win 83 games don’t usually win the World Series; in fact, they don’t usually make the playoffs. Running in place wasn’t going to cut it, and if the Cardinals lose ground due to injuries, there are scenarios where this is a pretty bleeping bad baseball club.

That's a more fair assessment. Although, this isn't true.

The Adam Kennedy signing does not look bad in a vaccum. He came cheap, and he carries a good glove. Still, this is a guy who is supposed to set the table for Albert Pujols, and his OBP last year was .334.

And I don't see how you could take this any other way.

The “talent” the Cardinals lost this winter was pitching talent — namely Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan, and Jason Marquis. You might assume that I was suggesting that Jocketty needed to do more to replace that pitching talent, but in fact that isn’t really the case.

But I agree here.

The pitching is fine. But I think Jocketty desperately needed to add some offense.

The difference between this article and the initial one is tremendous. If he'd said that stuff above the first time, I doubt as many people would've gone crazy over his article.

Except that he makes the possibly erroneous comment that Alou could have been signed. For all we know, Alou may hate the Cardinals and would rather retire than play for them.

That is one thing that annoys me about some analysis of free agent moves. When somebody is not signed, you can't just plug in their monetary value onto a different team and ask, "what if?" There is a human element to the free agent market that affects both price and if they'll even consider a location. Every free agent essentially has a temporary no-trade clause that they can evoke at any time.

--P--

[haltz]

Except that he makes the possibly erroneous comment that Alou could have been signed. For all we know, Alou may hate the Cardinals and would rather retire than play for them.

That is one thing that annoys me about some analysis of free agent moves. When somebody is not signed, you can't just plug in their monetary value onto a different team and ask, "what if?" There is a human element to the free agent market that affects both price and if they'll even consider a location. Every free agent essentially has a temporary no-trade clause that they can evoke at any time.

I know he's smarter than this, but it seems like he wantonly disregards the fact that the hot stove season is dynamic for any team. Consider if we had done nothing else differently but signed Moises Alou to an $8.5M contract in November, assuming that he would have chosen the Cardinals over the Mets at that point.

Suppan still dangling in the breeze, miss Schmidt, Miguel Batista, Wolf ... Weaver! God, I wish we had signed him. In November. When the Mets did. It would have been worth it just for the comedic value around here. Nevermind the bump in production.

[Jmodene]

I'm not so sure that signing a 40-year-old outfielder (Alou) is necessarily a good thing.

Also, when's the last time Ray Durham was healthy? And even *when* healthy, he's never been a particularly good defensive second baseman.

Frankly, I think the boys at BP have been waiting for years for the Cards to fail - they dislike TLR that much, and even more so since we've had seven stright winning seasons, won 6 of 7 division titles (yes, I count 2001), 2 pennants, and a World Series - and I'm looking forward to their having several *more* years to wait for their childish satisfaction.

[jim]

I'm not so sure that signing a 40-year-old outfielder (Alou) is necessarily a good thing.

Also, when's the last time Ray Durham was healthy? And even *when* healthy, he's never been a particularly good defensive second baseman.

Frankly, I think the boys at BP have been waiting for years for the Cards to fail - they dislike TLR that much, and even more so since we've had seven stright winning seasons, won 6 of 7 division titles (yes, I count 2001), 2 pennants, and a World Series - and I'm looking forward to their having several *more* years to wait for their childish satisfaction.

That's completely the opposite opinion of mine. I've always believed that most of them at BP seem almost giddy over how the Cardinals do things.

I actually think the Alou comment is dead on. If we could rewind and do it all over, I would have liked the Cards to make a serious run at him.

[greenback44]

I actually think the Alou comment is dead on. If we could rewind and do it all over, I would have liked the Cards to make a serious run at him.

For all of Encarnacion's flaws as a hitter, I'm not sure Alou's a better all-around ballplayer. I'm pretty sure the improvement isn't worth $9 million.

[stlouie_lipp]

whatever...that's why they play the games. The Cards were supposed to get a beat-down in the WS last year....how'd that work out?

[jim]

I guess I was looking at the ripple effect. With another OF'er you drop the weakest link (Taguchi?). Considering where we are, I don't mind overspending a little bit. We are in that sweet spot that can justify throwing extra money at a marginal win or two.

[Magneto]

Frankly, I think the boys at BP have been waiting for years for the Cards to fail - they dislike TLR that much, and even more so since we've had seven stright winning seasons, won 6 of 7 division titles (yes, I count 2001), 2 pennants, and a World Series - and I'm looking forward to their having several *more* years to wait for their childish satisfaction.

I've been a subscriber for years, and never noticed an anti-Cardinal sentiment, or anti-LaRussa for that matter.

[greenback44]

Jim, the problem is that Cardinals aren't dropping Taguchi and they're not bumping Encarnacion down to 4th OF. At least not yet.

Frankly, I think the boys at BP have been waiting for years for the Cards to fail - they dislike TLR that much, and even more so since we've had seven stright winning seasons, won 6 of 7 division titles (yes, I count 2001), 2 pennants, and a World Series - and I'm looking forward to their having several *more* years to wait for their childish satisfaction.

I've been a subscriber for years, and never noticed an anti-Cardinal sentiment, or anti-LaRussa for that matter.

They're more anti-authority than anti-LaRussa. Kinda got do that for marketing purposes. Even if BPro was anti-LaRussa, dismissing Nate Silver in this fashion is JModene's loss.