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Socnorb11 wrote:

jim wrote:I think the issue isn't one start, it's that he doesn't look like the same pitcher the last 1+ years that he did before 2005. It's not just one start, and it's not just being off. It's being different that is the concern.

The counter-point is that the "change" was at least partially intentional, because Duncan didn't think he could succeed long-term as the pitcher that he was.

I guess that's a fair point. One could conceivably imagine that if he were pitching now like he used to in 2004 and 2005, he would be doing even worse.

I personally disagree with that suggestion, because Reyes himself has said that his 2-seamer and his 4-seamer used to be pretty much the same velocity; that he can't throw as hard as he used to and does not know why; and because he now has less, not more, movement on his pitches.

skmsw wrote:

Socnorb11 wrote:

jim wrote:I think the issue isn't one start, it's that he doesn't look like the same pitcher the last 1+ years that he did before 2005. It's not just one start, and it's not just being off. It's being different that is the concern.

The counter-point is that the "change" was at least partially intentional, because Duncan didn't think he could succeed long-term as the pitcher that he was.

I guess that's a fair point. One could conceivably imagine that if he were pitching now like he used to in 2004 and 2005, he would be doing even worse.

I personally disagree with that suggestion, because Reyes himself has said that his 2-seamer and his 4-seamer used to be pretty much the same velocity; that he can't throw as hard as he used to and does not know why; and because he now has less, not more, movement on his pitches.

I know he said that in early spring training, but someone else posted (in this thread) that he was quoted as saying that he felt his velocity returning toward the end of spring.

Actually Reyes said on March 14th:

“They want the keep the pitch count down and they want me to go some innings,” Reyes said. “I feel comfortable throwing the two-seam now and getting a lot of called strikes with it. Just continue to get stronger and I’ll be alright. I feel like I’m throwing the way I’m used to throwing. … I feel like every time I go out there I get stronger.”

The quotes about him saying he couldn't throw as hard as he used to came at the beginning of spring.

BW42 wrote:

Magneto wrote:Anthony Reyes first start was as good as Wainwright's two starts. Wainwright has just gotten slightly more lucky with his defense. Wainwright has less control then Reyes does so far. I seriously think Reyes is the most scrutinized pitcher after every start I've ever seen in St. Louis. It's ridiculous. You had people saying he's terrible after 2 innings his first start of the season. Wow.

So you're comparing Wainwright's first start in the majors to Reyes' first start of the year (when his first ML start was in 2005)?

Reyes has 18 career starts. That's hardly enough to make any major assessment one way or the other about his career or status, but people do. He's more inconsistent than anyhing.

longhornbaseball wrote:Actually Reyes said on March 14th:

“They want the keep the pitch count down and they want me to go some innings,” Reyes said. “I feel comfortable throwing the two-seam now and getting a lot of called strikes with it. Just continue to get stronger and I’ll be alright. I feel like I’m throwing the way I’m used to throwing. … I feel like every time I go out there I get stronger.”

The quotes about him saying he couldn't throw as hard as he used to came at the beginning of spring.

You are correct, they came at the "beginning" of Spring . . . a whole seven days earlier than the quote above.

On March 7th, Reyes was quoted and the P-D wrote:"The fastball wasn't the speed I'm used to throwing it at," Reyes said Tuesday while discussing his erratic 2006 season. "To me, I don't think I had a good year. I battled as best I could. I tried to correct things and get stronger. I tried to get my arm back to what it used to be. It's definitely not the way I throw, the way I'm used to throwing" . . .

I guess everything is OK now. Something in that intervening seven days took him from feeling like he couldn't get the velocity he used to, to being back to his old self, stronger "every time out" (or at least, in this case, one time, since that was how many "times out" he'd had since the earlier quote).

And I'm sure that no one approached him with advice about not sounding like a crippled pitcher or regressed prospect to the press.

skmsw wrote:

longhornbaseball wrote:Actually Reyes said on March 14th:

“They want the keep the pitch count down and they want me to go some innings,” Reyes said. “I feel comfortable throwing the two-seam now and getting a lot of called strikes with it. Just continue to get stronger and I’ll be alright. I feel like I’m throwing the way I’m used to throwing. … I feel like every time I go out there I get stronger.”

The quotes about him saying he couldn't throw as hard as he used to came at the beginning of spring.

You are correct, they came at the "beginning" of Spring . . . a whole seven days earlier than the quote above.

On March 14, Reyes was quoted and the P-D wrote:"The fastball wasn't the speed I'm used to throwing it at," Reyes said Tuesday while discussing his erratic 2006 season. "To me, I don't think I had a good year. I battled as best I could. I tried to correct things and get stronger. I tried to get my arm back to what it used to be. It's definitely not the way I throw, the way I'm used to throwing" . . .

I guess everything is OK now. Something in that intervening seven days took him from feeling like he couldn't get the velocity he used to, to being back to his old self, stronger "every time out" (or at least, in this case, one time, since that was how many "times out" he'd had since the earlier quote).

And I'm sure that no one approached him with advice about not sounding like a crippled pitcher or regressed prospect to the press.

Wow.

All I know is that he had a good spring, and looked solid in his first start of the year.

I guess we'll see.....

Bronco-dude:
I like Reyes. I'm hoping he does well. I'm disappointed that he no longer appears to be the pitcher I'd watched in the past, but I hope that with the stuff he has he is still effective. I thought I saw someone who would be dominant; now I'm shooting for effective.

Longhorn:
Wow indeed. You come on these threads and point out that I did not see what I saw, and that I do not see now what I see now. This time, you take two quotes and place one at "the beginning" of spring training, and the other at "the end," when in fact they were exactly one week apart. We see this issue differently; I'm sorry you find that "overblown" and "annoying." I can and will tolerate your different perception even if I disagree with it. What I find most curious is, in the 2005 off-season, you saw Reyes as someone who would be somewhere in the "dominant" range of major league starting pitchers; do you still see that?

skmsw wrote:I saw Reyes once or twice in 04 and at least half a dozen times in 2005 (will have to check my book, maybe as many as ten or 12 of his starts, counting tape).

He was sitting at around 93 most of that time, he was hitting 95+ multiple times pretty much every time out.

But beyond the velocity, the pitches were electric -- lots of very late movement, mostly in on and slightly down for a righthanded hitter. And nothing ever was in the middle of the plate -- everything was on the edges of the strikezone. Fastball six inches outside, but cutting back and catching a corner, called strike; fasball on the inside half, but boring in on the hitter's hands, swing and miss. Almost never behind in counts.

I'm curious as to when you watched him in 2005. Some time that year, I'm not exactly sure when but I think it was in July, Reyes started tinkering with his delivery, apparently to work on keeping the ball down. I believe he got shelled one game and missed a start or two thereafter.

skmsw wrote:Wow indeed. You come on these threads and point out that I did not see what I saw, and that I do not see now what I see now. This time, you take two quotes and place one at "the beginning" of spring training, and the other at "the end," when in fact they were exactly one week apart. We see this issue differently; I'm sorry you find that "overblown" and "annoying." I can and will tolerate your different perception even if I disagree with it.

I don't think you can see mph on a scoreboard differently. Its one way or another, this isn't a difference of opinion. Anthony Reyes sat 90 to 93 in the minors and he's sitting there today with his 4 seam fastball. Thank you for tolerating my "different perception" of Reyes. Really, that means a lot to me.....

skmsw wrote:What I find most curious is, in the 2005 off-season, you saw Reyes as someone who would be somewhere in the "dominant" range of major league starting pitchers; do you still see that?

I project Reyes to finish the year with an ERA+ between 110 and 120 placing him in the top 25% of National league starters. I would not call that "dominant," but I'd still call it a damn good starter. I still think he could push out some Cy Young type performances 2-3 years down the road.

So to answer your question, I do not think he will be dominant in '07 but I do think he could be dominant in a few years.