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UK wrote:This one is nearly over, there will have to be something dramatic happen to shift these results.

Right now as of 10/8, I have Obama with 273 EVs before counting the toss-up states of VA, OH, IN, FL, NV, NC, MO and still having WV red. When MO and NC are toss-up states, the Republicans are in trouble.

I feel my 273EVs as of now is being extremely cautious.

The candidate who has won MO has become president every election since 1904 except 1956. MO really seems to be one of the best barometers of who's going to win.

UK wrote:This one is nearly over, there will have to be something dramatic happen to shift these results.

Right now as of 10/8, I have Obama with 273 EVs before counting the toss-up states of VA, OH, IN, FL, NV, NC, MO and still having WV red. When MO and NC are toss-up states, the Republicans are in trouble.

I feel my 273EVs as of now is being extremely cautious.

I have him at 318 and that's being very modest. More modest would be 291. But I think that's where the floor is now. And guess what? The ceiling is 395.

I don't think one can say this is over. Not because there's so much time left before the election, but I don't trust the polls. Are these polls registered voters or likely voters?

Obama leads by huge margins among young people, specifically college-aged - the worst group as reliable voters. Maybe they've got a big term paper, maybe a friend asked them to go out to lunch, maybe the line is too long, maybe they're too hung-over or maybe they just don't feel like it. Whatever the reason, historically this age group chooses not to vote. Perhaps the lure to affect change will bring them out in record numbers, but then again perhaps the assurance that 'this is over' will make them think their vote won't matter.

I'm concerned that many won't vote and that this election will be closer than people think.

KyCardinalFan wrote:I don't think one can say this is over. Not because there's so much time left before the election, but I don't trust the polls. Are these polls registered voters or likely voters?

Obama leads by huge margins among young people, specifically college-aged - the worst group as reliable voters. Maybe they've got a big term paper, maybe a friend asked them to go out to lunch, maybe the line is too long, maybe they're too hung-over or maybe they just don't feel like it. Whatever the reason, historically this age group chooses not to vote. Perhaps the lure to affect change will bring them out in record numbers, but then again perhaps the assurance that 'this is over' will make them think their vote won't matter.

I'm concerned that many won't vote and that this election will be closer than people think.

My son just did the absentee ballot thing - it's not all that easy especially for a 21 year old with classes to go and beer to drink. I understand that, but I would hope they understand the importance and take it as a personal challenge to their generation to vote in record numbers.

KyCardinalFan wrote:I don't think one can say this is over. Not because there's so much time left before the election, but I don't trust the polls. Are these polls registered voters or likely voters?

Obama leads by huge margins among young people, specifically college-aged - the worst group as reliable voters. Maybe they've got a big term paper, maybe a friend asked them to go out to lunch, maybe the line is too long, maybe they're too hung-over or maybe they just don't feel like it. Whatever the reason, historically this age group chooses not to vote. Perhaps the lure to affect change will bring them out in record numbers, but then again perhaps the assurance that 'this is over' will make them think their vote won't matter.

I'm concerned that many won't vote and that this election will be closer than people think.

++

There are a truckload of signs pointing in Obama's direction right now. And that's all well and good, but you're absolutely right. It's not over. On the flip side, the older generation (a lot of people who are likely to be voting for McCain) are very, very reliable in terms of making it to the polls.

With all of the advantages, this thing shouldn't even be close.

JL21 wrote:

KyCardinalFan wrote:I don't think one can say this is over. Not because there's so much time left before the election, but I don't trust the polls. Are these polls registered voters or likely voters?

Obama leads by huge margins among young people, specifically college-aged - the worst group as reliable voters. Maybe they've got a big term paper, maybe a friend asked them to go out to lunch, maybe the line is too long, maybe they're too hung-over or maybe they just don't feel like it. Whatever the reason, historically this age group chooses not to vote. Perhaps the lure to affect change will bring them out in record numbers, but then again perhaps the assurance that 'this is over' will make them think their vote won't matter.

I'm concerned that many won't vote and that this election will be closer than people think.

++

There are a truckload of signs pointing in Obama's direction right now. And that's all well and good, but you're absolutely right. It's not over. On the flip side, the older generation (a lot of people who are likely to be voting for McCain) are very, very reliable in terms of making it to the polls.

McCain should stop with the attack strategy, and just visit every bingo hall in the nation over the next few weeks.

KyCardinalFan wrote:I don't think one can say this is over. Not because there's so much time left before the election, but I don't trust the polls. Are these polls registered voters or likely voters?

Obama leads by huge margins among young people, specifically college-aged - the worst group as reliable voters. Maybe they've got a big term paper, maybe a friend asked them to go out to lunch, maybe the line is too long, maybe they're too hung-over or maybe they just don't feel like it. Whatever the reason, historically this age group chooses not to vote. Perhaps the lure to affect change will bring them out in record numbers, but then again perhaps the assurance that 'this is over' will make them think their vote won't matter.

I'm concerned that many won't vote and that this election will be closer than people think.

The big poll lists come from fivethirtyeight.com which uses likely voter numbers. That means that the young vote will be discounted somewhat by most pollsters given the tendency of young voters not to show up. The likely voter models can never be completely reliable, but they'd have to be way wrong to change the outcome at this point. I agree though that it's not over at all, and saying that is certainly not going to help turnout.

JL21 wrote:

KyCardinalFan wrote:I don't think one can say this is over. Not because there's so much time left before the election, but I don't trust the polls. Are these polls registered voters or likely voters?

Obama leads by huge margins among young people, specifically college-aged - the worst group as reliable voters. Maybe they've got a big term paper, maybe a friend asked them to go out to lunch, maybe the line is too long, maybe they're too hung-over or maybe they just don't feel like it. Whatever the reason, historically this age group chooses not to vote. Perhaps the lure to affect change will bring them out in record numbers, but then again perhaps the assurance that 'this is over' will make them think their vote won't matter.

I'm concerned that many won't vote and that this election will be closer than people think.

++

There are a truckload of signs pointing in Obama's direction right now. And that's all well and good, but you're absolutely right. It's not over. On the flip side, the older generation (a lot of people who are likely to be voting for McCain) are very, very reliable in terms of making it to the polls.

All of these polls are assuming the same turnout as 2004. The same rates. 52% woman. 48% men. 17% 18-29, I believe. Or 18-???. I can't remember. But the turnout is going to be there. It was there in the primaries and all you have to do is look at the new registrants and how many new voters there have been. I guarantee you most of those are because of Barack Obama's ground game.

PujolJunkie wrote:All of these polls are assuming the same turnout as 2004.

That's not quite true. It's one way to do it, but each pollster has it's own methodology. For example, they also ask certain question like, "Did you vote for President in 2004?"