End of April Observations...

GatewaySnayke · Post by **GatewaySnayke** » May 1 07, 2:31 pm

cardfaninfla wrote:Yeah, you are right, with a current OPS of .581 from our right fielders his career .700 wouldn't do any good at all AND the fact that after a really bad April he put up OPS of .809, .936 and .856 in May, June and July means nothing. In August while he continues to get hits you can see the wrist injury took all of his power when he hit .286 with only a .692 OPS.

Despite the fact that he didn't completely suck for three months does not change the fact that he's a below-average outfielder with a bad wrist. The Cardinals need power, and when I think of Juan Encarnacion and his .443 slugging, I don't think of "power."

And he had three extremely flukey months where he posted BABIP's of .379, .309 and .310.

Were you being sarcastic about his month of August? The guy slugged .384.

I can understand folks not caring for the guy but to completely ignor that he contributed to this team last year is wrong.

Nobody ignores Juan's contributions of a .317 on-base percentage or a .443 slugging, both of which would put him in the bottom third of right fielders. Or his 94 OPS+ which is also dreadful for a right fielder.

JL21 · Post by **JL21** » May 1 07, 2:33 pm

Snayke, I think you're missing the point. The point isn't that he's good. It's that if he's even at the worst level of his career, he's still an upgrade, and a decent-sized one at that, over what they've gotten thus far.

skmsw · Post by **skmsw** » May 1 07, 2:36 pm

For example, Pujols is currently at .230. Given, he's popping up a lot of pitches right now, but this team is currently VERY unlucky with the bats.

I just don't know how you can call it unlucky (let alone VERY unlucky) with all the feeble infield tappers, meek infield pop-ups, and toothless medium fly balls we hit.

It isn't bad luck when poorly-hit balls don't fall in safely.

cardfaninfla · Post by **cardfaninfla** » May 1 07, 2:51 pm

RC21 wrote:Snayke, I think you're missing the point. The point isn't that he's good. It's that if he's even at the worst level of his career, he's still an upgrade, and a decent-sized one at that, over what they've gotten thus far.

THANK YOU!!!! It isn't how he compares to OTHER right fielders, it is how he compares to what we are running out there NOW.

What makes you think his surgically repaired wrist won't be better? Why is it still a bad wrist. He hit 2 home runs in three games of extended spring training before jioning Springfield. Bascially the same fields that everyone was having trouble hitting the ball out of in spring training.

Popeye_Card · Post by **Popeye_Card** » May 1 07, 2:55 pm

skmsw wrote:
For example, Pujols is currently at .230. Given, he's popping up a lot of pitches right now, but this team is currently VERY unlucky with the bats.
I just don't know how you can call it unlucky (let alone VERY unlucky) with all the feeble infield tappers, meek infield pop-ups, and toothless medium fly balls we hit.

It isn't bad luck when poorly-hit balls don't fall in safely.

They've also hit a lot of line drives right at people, and a lot of hard-hit ground balls that find gloves (witness the high number of double plays).

Is part of it bad performance? Sure. But regardless of the reasons, the Cardinals are a better offensive club than they've shown. Not a single thing in their histories would suggest that Kennedy is a 60 OPS+ hitter, Rolen 87, Eckstein 50, Edmonds 66, Wilson 46, etc.

6 of the 8 Cardinals "regulars" are at least 30 points below their career OPS+'s. It would be a career low for every one of them except Rolen (who barely beats his terrible '05 injury-tainted season). Duncan is right at his career mark. Molina is above his by 14 points.

The offense is better than this. Luck, chasing bad pitches--whatever. It will change.

--P--

haltz · Post by **haltz** » May 1 07, 2:57 pm

Here's something I found amusing: Albert could be hitting a ton of homers, drawing a million walks, OPS 1.400 and have the exact same BABIP, like he did in April, 2006.

cardfaninfla · Post by **cardfaninfla** » May 1 07, 3:04 pm

Here is another interesting tidbit on how Encarnacion's "suckiness" in overblown. The standard for NL right fielders is pretty low these days boys. Right now Encarnacions .760 OPS from last would place him 5th among the NL right fileders in OPS.

haltz · Post by **haltz** » May 1 07, 3:11 pm

cardfaninfla wrote:Here is another interesting tidbit on how Encarnacion's "suckiness" in overblown. The standard for NL right fielders is pretty low these days boys. Right now Encarnacions .760 OPS from last would place him 5th among the NL right fileders in OPS.

The whole league is deflated so that's not a great way of looking at it I don't think, but really, who knows what he'd be doing in 90 AB. He was really not very good last year offensively, like 28th in VORP or something. His saving grace is probably his defense, and I think he's ultimately better suited as a fourth outfielder. Of course, like you've mentioned, RF is a black hole of suck right now so any help is welcome.

greenback44 · Post by **greenback44** » May 1 07, 3:32 pm

skmsw wrote:
For example, Pujols is currently at .230. Given, he's popping up a lot of pitches right now, but this team is currently VERY unlucky with the bats.
I just don't know how you can call it unlucky (let alone VERY unlucky) with all the feeble infield tappers, meek infield pop-ups, and toothless medium fly balls we hit.

It isn't bad luck when poorly-hit balls don't fall in safely.

Unless hitters happened to guess wrong an inordinate number of times or the pitchers made good pitches an inordinate number of times.

Hungary Jack · Post by **Hungary Jack** » May 1 07, 4:12 pm

RC21 wrote:
Hungary Jack wrote:This could make the trade deadline very interesting.
Which raises a strange question I've had boiling in me since yesterday.... In 2002, after DK passed, Walt made a huge push to upgrade the club, acquiring first Chuck Finley and then Scott Rolen. Do you suppose it'll happen again?

The Rolen deal was probably a once per decade alignment of the stars: the best player at his position in an intractable situation with his club who would be a FA at year's end. I don't think a Bud Smith-Polanco-Timlin type of deal could get that done today, and I cannot think of any impending FA's who are the best at their position (A-Rod stays in NY).

I also think that Walt realizes that this team is in transition, and that now is not the time to bet the farm. But a funny thing happened on the way to rebuilding the team that Walt had assembled starting in 2000: it won a championship in 2006 that it was supposed to win in 2002, 2004 or 2005.

But I don't think the 2006 championship gives Walt any illusion that this team faces a significant transition that will rely significantly on the development of several young players, including Reyes, AW, Molina, Rasmus, Garcia, and perhaps Anderson and Perez. He's not going to mortgage the future for another shot in 2007. He'll take the long view.