Rich Hill vs Adam Wainwright part 2

[Asmodai]

Asmodai, quit arguing semantics.

theyre important semantics. pitching better does not mean producing more. to assume they are the same is to believe in the power of 2003 Darrell May.

[Asmodai]

But I am right. How do those words taste? Bitter? I thought so.

So do you believe that argument, or not?

There isn't an argument. They are talking about two separate things here.

yeah I am waiting for gateway to get that.

It is trolling.

and what was his post about "im surprised no cub fans have argued..." or something like that. Then saying explicitly he was baiting me. im not trolling him. im basically arguing slowly. Hes putting words into my mouth and im saying he's misunderstanding me. that's not trolling.

[haltz]

No, I'm just talking about Snayke. He obviously didn't buy the argument when it was applied to Z/Carp, and he said just a page ago he was using it facetiously with regards to Hill/Wainwright, but now he seems to be taking it seriously on the Hill/Wainwright front.

I see. What is there not to buy? There's total production, results, who's actually pitched better, just offense, just pitching, etc, etc.

I don't know what's really all that arguable about those things wrt Carp & Z or Wainwright & Hill. Can we just define what we're talking about? The embedded post vortex with the seven word responses is giving me a headache.

[Bo Hart]

But I am right. How do those words taste? Bitter? I thought so.

So do you believe that argument, or not?

There isn't an argument. They are talking about two separate things here.

yeah I am waiting for gateway to get that.

It is trolling.

and what was his post about "im surprised no cub fans have argued..." or something like that. Then saying explicitly he was baiting me. im not trolling him. im basically arguing slowly. Hes putting words into my mouth and im saying he's misunderstanding me. that's not trolling.

Nevermind. I mis-read your post.

When you said "I'm waiting for Gateway to get that" I thought you meant "Gateway Redbirds," not "Gateway Snayke."

A lil confusion, thats all.

[GatewaySnayke]

OK, here's what I am saying:

*Using Asmodai's logic, Adam Wainwright has been better than Rich Hill this season. Whether he wants to admit that or not.

*Rich Hill has done a better job than Adam Wainwright of preventing runs. That's pretty much all I ask, as a fan, that the pitcher does.

But, if Asmodai is going to stay consistent, he has to admit that Wainwright's been better this season. Using this same logic, he must also admit that he's been better than Roosevelt and Zambrano. What can Wainwright say? He's a stud!

HUZZAH!~

[Bo Hart]

But, if Asmodai is going to stay consistent, he has to admit that Wainwright's been better this season. Using this same logic, he must also admit that he's been better than Roosevelt and Zambrano. What can Wainwright say? He's a stud!

He can use semantics as a loophole (which is what he's doing).

[Asmodai]

But I am right. How do those words taste? Bitter? I thought so.

So do you believe that argument, or not?

There isn't an argument. They are talking about two separate things here.

yeah I am waiting for gateway to get that.

It is trolling.

and what was his post about "im surprised no cub fans have argued..." or something like that. Then saying explicitly he was baiting me. im not trolling him. im basically arguing slowly. Hes putting words into my mouth and im saying he's misunderstanding me. that's not trolling.

Nevermind. I mis-read your post.

When you said "I'm waiting for Gateway to get that" I thought you meant "Gateway Redbirds," not "Gateway Snayke."

A lil confusion, thats all.

okay good

[Asmodai]

OK, here's what I am saying:

*Using Asmodai's logic, Adam Wainwright has been better than Rich Hill this season. Whether he wants to admit that or not.

*Rich Hill has done a better job than Adam Wainwright of preventing runs. That's pretty much all I ask, as a fan, that the pitcher does.

But, if Asmodai is going to stay consistent, he has to admit that Wainwright's been better this season. Using this same logic, he must also admit that he's been better than Roosevelt and Zambrano. What can Wainwright say? He's a stud!

HUZZAH!~

This is a pure example of falling into the fallacy of pitching stats such as even VORP which is based - partly on RA, ERA and the such. Adam Wainwright has produced more than Rich Hill this season. The fact that he has produced more than Rich Hill does not mean that he has been better than Rich Hill this season. My argument would be that Rich Hill's difference in xFIP outweighs the batting difference between the two. If you want to run through the math the difference between the pitching is about 10 runs and the offense about 8 runs. It's a slight difference in Rich's advantage.

The whole basis on pitching good or bad is doing what you can before the batter makes contact. A few more flyballs for Rich have gone for homers than expected, this is probably just random and bad luck. All data suggests that it is luck. Even if you hate xFIP and look at the analysis you provided Rich is behind but only by what .1 runs, iirc? The answer is that you are not right but you're not wrong. They've been interchangeable this season. There is NO statistical evidence that will point you in either direction.

Going forward I'd take Hill because I think he's more likely to sustain the K rates and hike them up. With the way he's been pitching the last few outings a finish similar to 2006 seems possible and that would probably put him over Wainwright for the season, undeniably. 50:10 K:BB months can do that.

Again they're interchangeable this season. And really they're probably close to being interchangeable from here going forward. I understand this is a Cardinals message board but this poll should be 50-50 and I think most of you would agree with that. If Wainwright's better than I take Hill the difference is minimal. If Hill's better and you take Wainwright the difference is minimal.

If Wainwright or Hill develops into a Cy Young contender next season it doesn't mean that the other one wasn't the better pick now.

[haltz]

My argument would be that Rich Hill's difference in xFIP outweighs the batting difference between the two.

Maybe you missed it, maybe not. But, care to comment on how sustainable (real, whatever) you think their respective HR/FB rates are? I came across some stuff that I touched on in another thread where Dave Cameron and MGL disagreed on how much skill is involved here. If I had a strongsuit, pitcher evaluation would not be it.

[Popeye_Card]

This thread needs something. And I think that something may be a picture of Tom Brady hugging a goat.



--P--