Colby Rasmus

[greenback44]

I see Jacoby Ellsbury being a .350/.430/.630 player. It's absurd that he doesn't get as much attention as Bruce or Rasmus...

what the hell is your point

You sabermetric prophets of doom are hard to keep separate.

[Asmodai]

It's very nice that you trust your gut feeling so much more than the systems of people who publish their projections and then analyze the results. But I don't.

You're looking at the best case scenario. I am looking at the most likely scenario. Translation: I am the one analyzing the results and objectively saying this is what should be expected. You're the one praying to God hoping something happens. Which is better?

[GatewaySnayke]

I see Jacoby Ellsbury being a .350/.430/.630 player. It's absurd that he doesn't get as much attention as Bruce or Rasmus...

what the hell is your point

I'm pretty sure that my point is in the second sentence. Ellsbury is going to be a superstar and nobody is paying attention yet.

[dangerous]

I see Jacoby Ellsbury being a .350/.430/.630 player. It's absurd that he doesn't get as much attention as Bruce or Rasmus...

what the hell is your point

I'm pretty sure that my point is in the second sentence. Ellsbury is going to be a superstar and nobody is paying attention yet.

SI said he's going to be a star.

[GatewaySnayke]

It's very nice that you trust your gut feeling so much more than the systems of people who publish their projections and then analyze the results. But I don't.

You're looking at the best case scenario. I am looking at the most likely scenario. Translation: I am the one analyzing the results and objectively saying this is what should be expected. You're the one praying to God hoping something happens. Which is better?

I don't think that's what he is saying at all.

[Asmodai]

It's very nice that you trust your gut feeling so much more than the systems of people who publish their projections and then analyze the results. But I don't.

You're looking at the best case scenario. I am looking at the most likely scenario. Translation: I am the one analyzing the results and objectively saying this is what should be expected. You're the one praying to God hoping something happens. Which is better?

I don't think that's what he is saying at all.

Of course it's not what he's saying. It's what he is saying means. He's smart enough not to knowingly say that.

[greenback44]

It's very nice that you trust your gut feeling so much more than the systems of people who publish their projections and then analyze the results. But I don't.

You're looking at the best case scenario. I am looking at the most likely scenario. Translation: I am the one analyzing the results and objectively saying this is what should be expected. You're the one praying to God hoping something happens. Which is better?

Not to pick at low-hanging fruit, but that's a subjective question. You'll have the lowest RMSE, but RMSE (or whatever) isn't the final destination for most. It pretty clearly wasn't what T11 was getting at when he threw 400/550 out there.

[cpebbles]

You're looking at the best case scenario. I am looking at the most likely scenario. Translation: I am the one analyzing the results and objectively saying this is what should be expected. You're the one praying to God hoping something happens. Which is better?

No, I am looking at projections which indicate that Rasmus has that potential. You are ignoring all but the lower ranges of his potential value, and assuming we'll take your word over people who put their projections out in the open and subject them to testing when you wishcast Rasmus as a borderline All-Star and Anderson as a C prospect.

[GatewaySnayke]

It's very nice that you trust your gut feeling so much more than the systems of people who publish their projections and then analyze the results. But I don't.

You're looking at the best case scenario. I am looking at the most likely scenario. Translation: I am the one analyzing the results and objectively saying this is what should be expected. You're the one praying to God hoping something happens. Which is better?

I don't think that's what he is saying at all.

Of course it's not what he's saying. It's what he is saying means. He's smart enough not to knowingly say that.

Jacoby Ellsbury.

[Asmodai]

It's very nice that you trust your gut feeling so much more than the systems of people who publish their projections and then analyze the results. But I don't.

You're looking at the best case scenario. I am looking at the most likely scenario. Translation: I am the one analyzing the results and objectively saying this is what should be expected. You're the one praying to God hoping something happens.

Not to pick at low-hanging fruit, but that's a subjective question. You'll have the lowest RMSE, but RMSE (or whatever) isn't the final destination for most. It pretty clearly wasn't what T11 was getting at when he threw 400/550 out there.

What he was throwing out there was subjective then. If you develop a system that projects best case scenarios (call it a Bill James infused system) then you've added subjectivity to objectivity and created something that is useless. If you develop a system that probabilistically models all possible outcomes, then you've reached pure objectivity. That's one of the great things about ZiPS and PECOTA. It has a weighted average outcome. This line is the one I posted above for Rasmus. This is the line we EXPECT him to project at. Obviously not all all of them are going to be there and obviously it's probably not a normal distribution and probably mirrors a log-normal one. PECOTA still spits out probabilities that he becomes a .290/.400/.550 hitter and it's probably less than five percent.

In fact right now PECOTA gives him about a 1 in 5 chance of developing into a .300 EqA player, which is something I would agree with. .290/.400/.550 would probably give him an EqA near .315, so it's a LOT lower chance of him developing into the number that T11, pebbles and everyone else is throwing out.

BTW, PECOTA gives roughly the SAME chance of Felix Pie developing into a .300+ EqA player.