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You sabermetric prophets of doom are hard to keep separate.Asmodai wrote:what the hell is your pointGatewaySnayke wrote:I see Jacoby Ellsbury being a .350/.430/.630 player. It's absurd that he doesn't get as much attention as Bruce or Rasmus...
You're looking at the best case scenario. I am looking at the most likely scenario. Translation: I am the one analyzing the results and objectively saying this is what should be expected. You're the one praying to God hoping something happens. Which is better?cpebbles wrote:It's very nice that you trust your gut feeling so much more than the systems of people who publish their projections and then analyze the results. But I don't.
I'm pretty sure that my point is in the second sentence. Ellsbury is going to be a superstar and nobody is paying attention yet.Asmodai wrote:what the hell is your pointGatewaySnayke wrote:I see Jacoby Ellsbury being a .350/.430/.630 player. It's absurd that he doesn't get as much attention as Bruce or Rasmus...
SI said he's going to be a star.GatewaySnayke wrote:I'm pretty sure that my point is in the second sentence. Ellsbury is going to be a superstar and nobody is paying attention yet.Asmodai wrote:what the hell is your pointGatewaySnayke wrote:I see Jacoby Ellsbury being a .350/.430/.630 player. It's absurd that he doesn't get as much attention as Bruce or Rasmus...
I don't think that's what he is saying at all.Asmodai wrote:You're looking at the best case scenario. I am looking at the most likely scenario. Translation: I am the one analyzing the results and objectively saying this is what should be expected. You're the one praying to God hoping something happens. Which is better?cpebbles wrote:It's very nice that you trust your gut feeling so much more than the systems of people who publish their projections and then analyze the results. But I don't.
Of course it's not what he's saying. It's what he is saying means. He's smart enough not to knowingly say that.GatewaySnayke wrote:I don't think that's what he is saying at all.Asmodai wrote:You're looking at the best case scenario. I am looking at the most likely scenario. Translation: I am the one analyzing the results and objectively saying this is what should be expected. You're the one praying to God hoping something happens. Which is better?cpebbles wrote:It's very nice that you trust your gut feeling so much more than the systems of people who publish their projections and then analyze the results. But I don't.
Not to pick at low-hanging fruit, but that's a subjective question. You'll have the lowest RMSE, but RMSE (or whatever) isn't the final destination for most. It pretty clearly wasn't what T11 was getting at when he threw 400/550 out there.Asmodai wrote:You're looking at the best case scenario. I am looking at the most likely scenario. Translation: I am the one analyzing the results and objectively saying this is what should be expected. You're the one praying to God hoping something happens. Which is better?cpebbles wrote:It's very nice that you trust your gut feeling so much more than the systems of people who publish their projections and then analyze the results. But I don't.
No, I am looking at projections which indicate that Rasmus has that potential. You are ignoring all but the lower ranges of his potential value, and assuming we'll take your word over people who put their projections out in the open and subject them to testing when you wishcast Rasmus as a borderline All-Star and Anderson as a C prospect.Asmodai wrote:You're looking at the best case scenario. I am looking at the most likely scenario. Translation: I am the one analyzing the results and objectively saying this is what should be expected. You're the one praying to God hoping something happens. Which is better?
Jacoby Ellsbury.Asmodai wrote:Of course it's not what he's saying. It's what he is saying means. He's smart enough not to knowingly say that.GatewaySnayke wrote:I don't think that's what he is saying at all.Asmodai wrote:You're looking at the best case scenario. I am looking at the most likely scenario. Translation: I am the one analyzing the results and objectively saying this is what should be expected. You're the one praying to God hoping something happens. Which is better?cpebbles wrote:It's very nice that you trust your gut feeling so much more than the systems of people who publish their projections and then analyze the results. But I don't.
What he was throwing out there was subjective then. If you develop a system that projects best case scenarios (call it a Bill James infused system) then you've added subjectivity to objectivity and created something that is useless. If you develop a system that probabilistically models all possible outcomes, then you've reached pure objectivity. That's one of the great things about ZiPS and PECOTA. It has a weighted average outcome. This line is the one I posted above for Rasmus. This is the line we EXPECT him to project at. Obviously not all all of them are going to be there and obviously it's probably not a normal distribution and probably mirrors a log-normal one. PECOTA still spits out probabilities that he becomes a .290/.400/.550 hitter and it's probably less than five percent.greenback44 wrote:Not to pick at low-hanging fruit, but that's a subjective question. You'll have the lowest RMSE, but RMSE (or whatever) isn't the final destination for most. It pretty clearly wasn't what T11 was getting at when he threw 400/550 out there.Asmodai wrote:You're looking at the best case scenario. I am looking at the most likely scenario. Translation: I am the one analyzing the results and objectively saying this is what should be expected. You're the one praying to God hoping something happens.cpebbles wrote:It's very nice that you trust your gut feeling so much more than the systems of people who publish their projections and then analyze the results. But I don't.