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Tim wrote:I picked 100-104 basically because the Cubs are good and most of the NL isn't even competing.

Too low

It doesn't appear they will lose again so that would be 156-6.

Radbird wrote:It doesn't appear they will lose again so that would be 156-6.

lol


Tomorrow. They won't sweep 4 games from Nats. I predict Jake gets rocked for his first loss of the year.

so he pitches his next no hitter

I'm just going to say that there is a lot of blind hatred here. The Cubs are a monster of a team. They probably won't maintain a 780 or whatever win% but not even getting to 100? Please. That's all but a given unless Rizzo and or Arrieta go down.

I don't think 100 is given ... likely yes, but not given.

Tim wrote:

Tim wrote:I picked 100-104 basically because the Cubs are good and most of the NL isn't even competing.

Too low

there's a pretty big contrast between the two leagues this year. the NL has a handful of like 7 teams which are competing for 5 playoff spots: mets, nationals, cubs, pirates, cards, dodgers, giants

then 2 or maybe 3 teams which should be decent but are unlikely to factor into the playoff race: marlins, d-backs, padres

then a pile of lousy teams that came into this season with no real hope of competing: phillies, braves, reds, brewers, rockies


the AL is a lot more wide open. very few of those teams came into the season without much hope of competing for a playoff spot this year, but they also lack the high-end projection of teams like the cubs, mets and nationals.

jim wrote:I don't think 100 is given ... likely yes, but not given.

Yeah. I think 100 wins is possible, hell, the record is possible. But the probability isn't high (on the latter). They're playing out of their mind right now but I think people often forget how long this season is. They're not going to maintain this pace for the next 5 months. And Arietta is playing way over his head. His era is two full runs lower than his FIP. His K rate had declined and his walk rate has increased. He's been lucky and will come back to reality. He'll still be a top 5-10 pitcher regardless but not THIS.

Magneto2.0 wrote:

jim wrote:I don't think 100 is given ... likely yes, but not given.

Yeah. I think 100 wins is possible, hell, the record is possible. But the probability isn't high (on the latter). They're playing out of their mind right now but I think people often forget how long this season is. They're not going to maintain this pace for the next 5 months. And Arietta is playing way over his head. His era is two full runs lower than his FIP. His K rate had declined and his walk rate has increased. He's been lucky and will come back to reality. He'll still be a top 5-10 pitcher regardless but not THIS.

Arrieta is pitching insanely well and has been for the better part of a year now, going back to last year. And, during that time his ERA has remained lower than his FIP by quite a bit. They're not playing out of their minds, though. Fowler maybe....but overall not really. They lost Schwarber and it didn't even slow them down. And, I'd venture a strong guess that they end up closer to 110 than 100.

Magneto2.0 wrote:

jim wrote:I don't think 100 is given ... likely yes, but not given.

Yeah. I think 100 wins is possible, hell, the record is possible. But the probability isn't high (on the latter). They're playing out of their mind right now but I think people often forget how long this season is. They're not going to maintain this pace for the next 5 months. And Arietta is playing way over his head. His era is two full runs lower than his FIP. His K rate had declined and his walk rate has increased. He's been lucky and will come back to reality. He'll still be a top 5-10 pitcher regardless but not THIS.

Obviously Arrieta isn't going to maintain this pace forever, but even when he regresses, he'll likely still be a top tier SP, at least for the next year or two. And frankly, with the Cubs' offense, he doesn't need to be what he has been over his last 25 starts. But as far as the rest of the team goes, there is only one guy playing "out of his mind", and that's Fowler. Admittedly, his hot start has been a catalyst for the offense, and he has started regressing a bit already. But I would argue that outside of Fowler and Zobrist, most of the lineup will likely get better as the season goes on. Rizzo, even with a 1.000 OPS, has a .216 babip. Heyward is having a Heyward start. Soler has been awful. Russell has hit into quite a bit of terrible luck. Montero has been hurt. Of course the performance of some will ebb as that of others flows, but it's simply not accurate to say the entire team is firing on all cylinders.

Now I also think Arrieta, Lester and Hammel will regress (more the latter of the three). But I also think Epstein/Hoyer will add another SP before the deadline.

At the beginning of the season, I would not have bet on the Cubs winning 100 games. Now, though? I would, and I would feel fairly confident. Will they keep playing .793 baseball? Of course not. But to hit 100, they only have to win at a .579 clip the rest of the way. The only thing I can see that would keep that from happening would be a significant injury to Rizzo, Bryant or Arrieta.