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haltz wrote:

My argument would be that Rich Hill's difference in xFIP outweighs the batting difference between the two.

Maybe you missed it, maybe not. But, care to comment on how sustainable (real, whatever) you think their respective HR/FB rates are? I came across some stuff that I touched on in another thread where Dave Cameron and MGL disagreed on how much skill is involved here. If I had a strongsuit, pitcher evaluation would not be it.

I did miss it. There probably is some skill in it, but not enough to disregard xFIP. In Hill's case we have a flyball pitcher in Wrigley field where the gaps are unforgiving and he's pretty high. We're not taking a large part off of Hill's HR total. Like two or three runs.


If there is any skill in it, it's probably tied into not making mistakes to good hitters and making your mistakes to hitters with loss power. Choking, so to speak. At least thats something that makes the most sense to me. Maybe there's something to a pitcher who is a flyball pitcher AND relies on his curveball to have a higher HR ratio than normal (Hill would fall in here, but so would Wainwright). I don't think there is much "skill" in it, but maybe there are subsets of pitchers who fair better, like lefties outproducing BABIPs (Moyer and Zito) or Knucklers and dips. Etc. Either way, the year to year correlation is so low, it may not even be worth arguing over the skill because the skill is so minimal relative to the overall shape of it. And, if there is skill its probably an ability to be better than average not be worse than average.

I'm a little late to the party, but I'd just like to point out that the Hill vs. Wainwright argument is not a simple case of refined, defense-independent statistics vs. outdated stats. DIPS v2 tilts in Wainwright's direction as much as xFIP favors Hill (DIPS 3.0 results are not available).

cpebbles wrote:I'm a little late to the party, but I'd just like to point out that the Hill vs. Wainwright argument is not a simple case of refined, defense-independent statistics vs. outdated stats. DIPS v2 tilts in Wainwright's direction as much as xFIP favors Hill (DIPS 3.0 results are not available).

Good to see you here, cpebbles.

cpebbles wrote:I'm a little late to the party, but I'd just like to point out that the Hill vs. Wainwright argument is not a simple case of refined, defense-independent statistics vs. outdated stats. DIPS v2 tilts in Wainwright's direction as much as xFIP favors Hill (DIPS 3.0 results are not available).

This is already shown by the difference in FIP. FIP and DIPS use HRA, xFIP replaces HRA with OFBs so it makes little difference. Like I said, either way you're ending up with interchangeable.

Well, you've got two approaches, one of which regresses HR rates and one which doesn't, giving results which are almost exactly opposite. The problems: FIP and DIPS in their various incarnations have shown very similar utility as forecasting tools, and as far as I can tell neither has been compared against xFIP. HRs do not correlate nearly as strongly as Ks or BBs, but the correlation is very real, and I have yet to see any data showing that xFIP's HR regression actually improves the data as a forecasting tool.

This is what I wanted in starting this thread. Thanks for the more in-depth analysis, guys. I pretty much thought they were basically interchangeable other than Wainwright being a year younger.

thrill wrote:This is what I wanted in starting this thread. Thanks for the more in-depth analysis, guys.

Where is my thanks for the Tom Brady picture?

--P--

Popeye_Card wrote:This thread needs something. And I think that something may be a picture of Tom Brady hugging a goat.



--P--

Oh, you cannot imagine the temptation I have to add a very inappropriate "lolcats" style message to that.

Popeye_Card wrote:

thrill wrote:This is what I wanted in starting this thread. Thanks for the more in-depth analysis, guys.

Where is my thanks for the Tom Brady picture?

--P--

Popeye, I've been sitting here for about 5 minutes now and I was thinking to myself. "Man, I feel like something is missing in my life." But I couldn't figure out what it was. I tried looking at a bunny with a pancake on his head, but that wasn't it. Then I started reading this thread and I saw a picture of Tom Brady hugging a goat. I had an Epiphany. Llammas and bubble gum appeared before me and suddenly my life was complete. Thank you Popeye, you have made me whole again.

TheoSqua wrote:

Popeye_Card wrote:

thrill wrote:This is what I wanted in starting this thread. Thanks for the more in-depth analysis, guys.

Where is my thanks for the Tom Brady picture?

--P--

Popeye, I've been sitting here for about 5 minutes now and I was thinking to myself. "Man, I feel like something is missing in my life." But I couldn't figure out what it was. I tried looking at a bunny with a pancake on his head, but that wasn't it. Then I started reading this thread and I saw a picture of Tom Brady hugging a goat. I had an Epiphany. Llammas and bubble gum appeared before me and suddenly my life was complete. Thank you Popeye, you have made me whole again.

You're welcome.

--P--