Out on a limb with Chris Duncan

[thrill]

PS- The Murton comparison is a cautionary tale. Beware sample sizes that belie everything the player has done in the past.

Not now man. Let me ride the wave while I can.

[GatewaySnayke]

Six games, 20 AB's, 11-for-20, .800 SLG

[HugeCardfan]

Six games, 20 AB's, 11-for-20, .800 SLG

Yep. Darned if Steve wasn't right.....sort of. He can't keep up the pace. Three for four and his slugging slips from .8125.

Carrying the 75 minimum at bats forward, the guy is now going to have to slug at the torrid pace of .255 for the last 55 at bats to prove Steve right. It's my guess he'll have a higher batting average than that over the next 55, let along slugging %.

Ought to get honorable mention in a signature somewhere....

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Six games, 20 AB's, 11-for-20, .800 SLG

Yep. Darned if Steve wasn't right.....sort of. He can't keep up the pace. Three for four and his slugging slips from .8125.

Carrying the 75 minimum at bats forward, the guy is now going to have to slug at the torrid pace of .255 for the last 55 at bats to prove Steve right. It's my guess he'll have a higher batting average than that over the next 55, let along slugging %.

Ought to get honorable mention in a signature somewhere....

Does a minimum of 75 mean you stop counting at 75? He's on pace to have around 140 more AB's, which would mean he would need to slug around .425 or lower the rest of the way, which is higher than his career minor league SLG.

[HugeCardfan]

Six games, 20 AB's, 11-for-20, .800 SLG

Yep. Darned if Steve wasn't right.....sort of. He can't keep up the pace. Three for four and his slugging slips from .8125.

Carrying the 75 minimum at bats forward, the guy is now going to have to slug at the torrid pace of .255 for the last 55 at bats to prove Steve right. It's my guess he'll have a higher batting average than that over the next 55, let along slugging %.

Ought to get honorable mention in a signature somewhere....

Does a minimum of 75 mean you stop counting at 75? He's on pace to have around 140 more AB's, which would mean he would need to slug around .425 or lower the rest of the way, which is higher than his career minor league SLG.

Well there you have it. Another number. So what does he have to hit if he only gets the 110 at bats Steve projected?

See this whole numbers predict thing is kinda silly. Especially if you want to use his "entire" minor league career. So he struggled in Johnson City when he was 18. Do you really think that stat is germaine to where he is as a hitter in 2006 in the majors. I don't.

If you want to draw any useful data from his minor league career, perhaps you look at the last 2 years in AA and AAA. That would indicate a slugging % of .471.

I think the guy is doing phenomenally well in the majors and, while I agree that what he is doing is probably unsustainable, I don't think .440 was ever in the cards. I don't see any regression to the mean. The kid is big and strong. He is hitting to all fields, and he is hitting right handers/left handers, curves and fastballs.

Unless he is hurt, there is not likely to be any .425 for the rest of the season.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Six games, 20 AB's, 11-for-20, .800 SLG

Yep. Darned if Steve wasn't right.....sort of. He can't keep up the pace. Three for four and his slugging slips from .8125.

Carrying the 75 minimum at bats forward, the guy is now going to have to slug at the torrid pace of .255 for the last 55 at bats to prove Steve right. It's my guess he'll have a higher batting average than that over the next 55, let along slugging %.

Ought to get honorable mention in a signature somewhere....

Does a minimum of 75 mean you stop counting at 75? He's on pace to have around 140 more AB's, which would mean he would need to slug around .425 or lower the rest of the way, which is higher than his career minor league SLG.

Well there you have it. Another number. So what does he have to hit if he only gets the 110 at bats Steve projected?

See this whole numbers predict thing is kinda silly. Especially if you want to use his "entire" minor league career. So he struggled in Johnson City when he was 18. Do you really think that stat is germaine to where he is as a hitter in 2006 in the majors. I don't.

If you want to draw any useful data from his minor league career, perhaps you look at the last 2 years in AA and AAA. That would indicate a slugging % of .471.

I think the guy is doing phenomenally well in the majors and, while I agree that what he is doing is probably unsustainable, I don't think .440 is in the cards. I don't see any regression to the mean. The kid is big and strong. He is hitting to all fields, and he is hitting right handers/left handers, curves and fastballs.

Unless he is hurt, there is not likely to be any .425 for the rest of the season.

I understand entirely where you're coming from, I'm going to have to disagree though.

[HugeCardfan]

That's fair.

I will remain excited about this kid with power who is becoming a better fielder each day and looks like he is here to stay.

[GatewaySnayke]

This is from Jeff Gordon today:

I’d agree with moving Chris Duncan into an RBI spot and using a player like Perez in the No. 2 slot. I just watched Duncan hit another six-mile solo homer in the top of the batting order. I don’t get using a slow power hitter ahead of Pujols rather than behind him in support.

I'd like to know how Chris Duncan is "slow," and why that even matters. Are the Cardinals supposed to move Duncan out because he's hitting home runs and taking away RBI opportunities from Pujols? That's the stupidest thing I had read, until someone suggested batting Timo in front of Pujols. Sometimes I can't wrap my head around people who have no idea what it takes to win at baseball. But Baby Duncan's home runs are killing the Cardinals.

[thrill]

This isn't the first time I've though Jeff Gordon is a moron.

[GatewaySnayke]

This isn't the first time I've though Jeff Gordon is a moron.

Normally he isn't such a knucklehead, or so it seems. I don't consider myself to be a baseball genius or anything, but here's what I do know:

1) If Duncan hits a home run, the Cardinals get a score
2) If Pujols gets a home run, then the Cardinals get another score, and the score will be the same as if, say Timo Perez had bunted David Eckstein to second base. Just another example of people overrating the RBI.

Also, Duncan is now 13-for-24 since the bet began, and the slugging average has dipped to .791