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Re: Rams and other teams 2013 NFL season thread

Posted: February 3 14, 10:19 am
by Freed Roger
Socnorb11 wrote:
Freed Roger wrote:
ghostrunner wrote:
Freed Roger wrote:People hate Peyton Manning?
Haters isn't the best word choice. More of a "choker" thing.
He's in decent company then. On the flipside - some bad QBs have won SB. Trent Dilfer, for starts.

If one thing this game has shown us about QBing and winning SBs, it's more about managing a game and not making mistakes, rather than having a team dependent on QB going out throwing 7 TDs. Broncos, not a well-rounded team, & too dependent on Manning.

You are definitely right about not making mistakes. That was clearly the difference. Total yards were relatively even, and Denver actually had more first downs. The 4 turnovers were critical.

As far as not being a well-rounded team, I don't know if I'd agree with that. Denver was really beat up on defense this year, and played the SB without 5 of their defensive starters (including Von Miller, who is one of the best defensive players in football). Not that the defense lost this game for them, but I do disagree to some extent with the "well rounded" statement. Seattle was definitely deeper.......... and definitely the better team yesterday.
Yeah, in this endless season it becomes a war of attrition with the injuries. The team they fielded yesterday was not well-rounded. Special teams play is the canary in the coal mine for their depth/well-rounded problems.

Re: Rams and other teams 2013 NFL season thread

Posted: February 3 14, 10:33 am
by stlouie_lipp
Warning: this is meant to by funny.

Image

Re: Rams and other teams 2013 NFL season thread

Posted: February 3 14, 1:05 pm
by 33anda3rd
Freed Roger wrote:If one thing this game has shown us about QBing and winning SBs, it's more about managing a game and not making mistakes, rather than having a team dependent on QB going out throwing 7 TDs. Broncos, not a well-rounded team, & too dependent on Manning.
Here's my thing re QBs and SBs.

Check out the Niners Franchise Index page at pro football ref.

Look specifically at the Montana and Young eras. Few things jump out.

The last 5 years of Montana, the SF offense ranked (by yards): 3, 1, 2, 1, 2.
The first 5 years of Young, the SF offense ranked (by yard): 3, 1, 1, 2, 2.

The same! But one is always in the Best Ever convo and the other is not, even though they did the same stuff with the same supporting cast more or less, in the same system.

Look at the Montana era, and the Niners defensive ranks (by yards): 2 (won SB), 21 (no playoffs), 10, 10 (won SB), 14, 6, 1, 3 (won SB), 4 (won SB), 2.

He was the man for 10 years in SF. They had a top-5 D half the time and a top-10 D 80% of the time. They only won one SB when the D was not top-4 by yards, and that year it was t#10 by yards but, oddly, the #1 scoring defense in the NFL. They might not have peaked in single seasons like the Bears and Giants but the best team defense of that generation was SF, who went out and was the top of the heap constantly. They went 12 years where they were only below 8th in yards allowed twice. They were ridiculously good.

Another angle: when Montana's defense was not very good, "he" did not "win" Super Bowls.

That's because Montana, like Manning, can't win a Super Bowl alone. The best team that day wins and the best overall team during the season wins an overwhelming amount of the time, and sometimes the best QB is on the best team (like when Favre won) and sometimes a QB who's super hot (Brees, Rodgers) takes one down in a great year, but they never do it alone or with just offense. Montana was no Marino. Brady is no Manning. Just, Montana and Brady were on better all-around teams than Marino and Manning (and poor forgotten Dan Fouts, who in today's NFL would....holy Jesus, what he'd do in today's game).

The craziest thing about this Super Bowl to me is that it opened, when the matchups were set, with SEA -3, and before the sun rose the next morning it was DEN -2.5. Vegas odds move until the money is coming in even on both sides, and for the line to move eleven half-point units in under 8 hours because all the money went on Manning's offensive prowess is literally insane. I don't know if it was all square money, and people who thought that he was going to ride a white horse into New Jersey and slay Seattle's superior D, superior ST, and very good O that matched up fairly well with Denver's depleted D--like, if people were goofy enough to think that he could just take the game over single-handedly as if he was playing v a High School team--or if it was the smart money going large on Denver. Either way, it's crazy as hell that the line changed the way it did, and moved away from the better team, in such a short span.

Re: Rams and other teams 2013 NFL season thread

Posted: February 3 14, 1:46 pm
by Freed Roger
You could just see it on Manning's face on the sideline - after each fiasco he was about to come right back out over-determined to make it right and thus was forcing passes when he should be eating them. Favre -on his lesser teams would do the same thing. 2001 playoff game here against Rams namely. when Favre won his super Bowl, he had a good game - about 250 yds and two TDs (but no pics) -but - IIRC, Desmond Howard was the star of that game.

Manning had it in his head that the only way they win is if he had a monster game. Maybe he was right about this. Seattle was better all the way around. Period. It would have taken a lot of could-of would haves to make that SB into a game.

Re: Rams and other teams 2013 NFL season thread

Posted: February 3 14, 2:33 pm
by Socnorb11
I don't know. I think Seattle's overall superiority is being overstated. Yes, Manning was the best player on Denver's team, but it's not like he's playing with a bunch of scrubs all year. They won 15 games this year. That wasn't an accident. They just made too many mistakes yesterday, and Seattle was the better team this time. I think if you play the game 10 times, it's RARELY a blowout like that, either way. Overall yards were pretty close, and Denver actually accumulated more first downs than Seattle. Denver fumbled 4 times (lost 2 of them), and Manning threw 2 interceptions (his arm was hit on one of them). The center hikes the ball over Manning's head, into the end zone. Special teams was really a non-factor, other than the Percy Harvin kickoff return. Defensively, Denver played well enough to win, if their offense holds onto the ball.

Denver's strength is their offense, and that's really what lost the game for them. In my opinion, it wasn't a matter of being well-rounded. It was just one of those days. It happens.

Re: Rams and other teams 2013 NFL season thread

Posted: February 3 14, 3:19 pm
by 33anda3rd
Right, but let's say we play the game 1000 times. Seattle probably wins 540-560 of them. You had the top D v the top O but Denver ranked 18th in DVOA while Seattle was 11th on offense, and Seattle was 5th on Special Teams. They had the edge. The betting line should have been something like Seattle -2 but it came in with them +2. They were a little, not a lot, better, and I don't think they should have entered the 'dog. That was entirely a function of crowd knowledge being out of tune and too much support behind the paradigm of the QB being given too much credit.

Re: Rams and other teams 2013 NFL season thread

Posted: February 3 14, 3:31 pm
by Socnorb11
33anda3rd wrote:Right, but let's say we play the game 1000 times. Seattle probably wins 540-560 of them. You had the top D v the top O but Denver ranked 18th in DVOA while Seattle was 11th on offense, and Seattle was 5th on Special Teams. They had the edge. The betting line should have been something like Seattle -2 but it came in with them +2. They were a little, not a lot, better, and I don't think they should have entered the 'dog. That was entirely a function of crowd knowledge being out of tune and too much support behind the paradigm of the QB being given too much credit.
Oh, I'm not disagreeing with any of that, 33. In fact, I think you're entire post above was very well thought-out. I was simply objecting to the notion that it would have taken some really unusual circumstances for Denver to have a chance to win.

Re: Rams and other teams 2013 NFL season thread

Posted: February 3 14, 3:43 pm
by Freed Roger
Socnorb11 wrote:
I was simply objecting to the notion that it would have taken some really unusual circumstances for Denver to have a chance to win.
Seems like you're objecting to a notion that didn't occur here. Just because Denver would have needed a lot of plays and performances to go differently last night - doesn't mean that Denver couldn't beat them 4 out of 10 occasions. Seattle was clearly the better team - that's all - and compounded with the huge errors which resulted in momentum/confidence made it a blow out.

Re: Rams and other teams 2013 NFL season thread

Posted: February 3 14, 4:05 pm
by Socnorb11
Freed Roger wrote:
Socnorb11 wrote:
I was simply objecting to the notion that it would have taken some really unusual circumstances for Denver to have a chance to win.
Seems like you're objecting to a notion that didn't occur here. Just because Denver would have needed a lot of plays and performances to go differently last night - doesn't mean that Denver couldn't beat them 4 out of 10 occasions. Seattle was clearly the better team - that's all - and compounded with the huge errors which resulted in momentum/confidence made it a blow out.

I felt like the notion did occur, but maybe I misunderstood you.

I'm almost certainly a little sensitive today. It was a tough loss. I've been a Broncos fan my whole life (didn't become a Cardinals fan until I moved to Iowa). Super Bowl appearances are pretty special. You never want them to end like that.

Re: Rams and other teams 2013 NFL season thread

Posted: February 3 14, 5:07 pm
by jim
If that game were played 1,000 times Seattle would have won it 1,001 times.