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This is what I've never understood about "replacement level", being it VORP or OPS, etc.

We seem to have many guys under replacement level, who you would think would actually be the replacements if it came to that.

Not sure that makes sense.

Faceman wrote:This is what I've never understood about "replacement level", being it VORP or OPS, etc.

We seem to have many guys under replacement level, who you would think would actually be the replacements if it came to that.

Not sure that makes sense.

Are you asking "How can actual replacement be below replacement level"?

Yeah things like VORP make replacement player seem like a bad thing. But if your team had no one below replacement player, you'd more than likely have the first team in the majors for that to be the case.

Even the '27 Yankees had a SS with an 84 OPS+ and a 3B with a 79 OPS+ and their bench had 729 ABs worth of players all under 80 OPS+. That team potentially had 7 hitters below replacement value, only two received significant at bats, but the point is still valid..

Re-sign Holliday, resign Derosa for fairly cheap, resign Smoltz for fairly cheap. Offer Pinata arbitration. Let everyone else go. Plan on Freese being the everyday 3B and DeRo being the super sub that can do anything and hit off the bench.

If Pinata offers arb, the rotation is:

Carp/Wano/Lohse/Pinata/Smoltz/Garcia/Hawk/Boggs/Lynn though I don't like him pretty much in that order. If Pinata doesn't accept, just drop him and see where they are. Look for someone in ST if need be. The other pitchers fall to the pen. They keep Reyes/Miller if they're not already signed or find other lefties I really don't care. Keep Franklin in the closers role for now.

2-Molina
3-AP
4-Lugo/Schu
5-Freese
6-Ryan
7,8,9 - Holliday, Rasmus, Ludwick

1 - Carp/Wano/Lohse/Smoltz/Garcia

BP - Motte, McLellan, Franklin, Reyes, Miller, Hawk, Thompson because he just won't go away.
Bench - DeRosa, Lugo/Schu, Blah blah blah.

How's that sound?

Obvious questions:

Carp's health. Rasmus' progression. DeRosa's health. Freese's production. Lohse's production.

You know what you're getting for the most part from the remainder of the team.

Reyes and Miller are both under contract for next year already...

I'd really like to see Hawksworth get a shot in the rotation and see what Boggs has when he starts in the pen.

Players can perform below replacement level due to chance (Just as a replacement-level player can pull off the first few weeks of Bo Hart's career), or they can be below-replacement for their true talent and have a manager incompetent enough to keep running them out there in spite of it. The former happens way more often.

haltz wrote:I agree with pornstache21, but I also find myself saying something like this every offseason and wonder what the ~1,000 worst ABs look like for any given club, and if we aren't just as likely to lose something positive as something negative.

Keep in mind there are also another 175 Cardinal PA from guys like LaRue (63 OPS+), Glaus (32 OPS+), Robinson (35 OPS+) and Pagnozzi (-26 OPS+). So that brings the total to 1700 PA from non pitchers with an OPS+ averaging probably somewhere in the high 60s to low 70s. I also didn't include DeRosa, who also OPS+ at 83 like Duncan, so that's another 262 PA from guys with 83 OPS+ and under for a total of 1962.

By comparison (since Duncan was the high with 83 OPS+, I totaled all guys 83 and under), the Dodgers had 436 PA from hitters with 83 OPS+ and lower. The Rockies, 1017, with 399 from Garrett Atkins. The Phillies, 1064, with 625 of those from starter (80 OPS+) Pedro Feliz. Even the Cubs, with starter Mike Fontenot with 419 PA, only totaled 1090.

*edit: Noticed I left out 588 PA for 82 OPS+ Russell Martin so the Dodgers soar from the ridiculously low 436 to, what seems to be about average 1024. It would actually probably make sense to leave this out since we're really not talking about catchers that play every day that just happen to OPS low but over playing reserves that don't deserve to play. The great, great majority of the Cardinals 1962 are from reserves or certainly guys who should be considered reserves. Most other teams had about half of their PA from an everyday player. I suppose there were times when Ankiel, Duncan and Thurston were considered everyday players but it shouldn't have been the case. At least not 1015 PA before it was figured out that they're not.

RA's stats really illustrate the lack of lineup depth on the roster in 2009. Moz made enough moves during the season to overcome the most glaring issues to get us into the playoffs, but it wasn't nearly enough to compete the Dodgers, Rockies or Phillies, IMO. Resiging IBM and DeRosa would be a great start, but I don't think prepping this team for 2010 ends there.

I hate to be the one to bring this up, but even with all those terrible PA by all those terrible hitters, the team walked away with the division. And those terrible hitters barely hit in the division series, where the team scored six runs in three games. I'm just not seeing how replacing the bench makes the middle of the lineup actually drive in a run.