cpebbles wrote:BTW, whether you go by the theory that pitchers of the past were physical aberrations who could pitch endlessly or that they backed off on and didn't throw every pitch at 100%, it's pretty clear that the same cannot be said for Strasburg so the workloads of 70s pitchers are not really relevant to the argument.
While true, I'm sure there have been many advancements to Tommy John surgery since the very first one too.
Agreed that it is apples to oranges. But can we also agree that 160 IP is fairly arbitrary?
AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
If people would jsut say it is a mistake instead of an insult to the game of baseball and/or a slap in the face to the fans and/or the Nats didn't care about wining, we probably wouldn't even be having this discussion.
But this dilemma says something about the state of the game today that many find very unappealing.
greenback44 wrote:Maybe I missed something, but where are people getting 160 IP? Last I heard, the Nationals were being coy about what Strasburg's limit is.
I've heard 160 a couple of times recently but thought I heard Al last night say 150. So I'm not sure what the number is exactly.
I've heard the 160 IP figure a lot, but it's just speculation as far as I can tell. I'm guessing the Nationals have put quite a bit of effort into figuring out whatever number they decided on to minimize the chance of reinjury while getting him stretched out sufficiently for a full 2013, so I wouldn't say it's "arbitrary." The vagaries of human performance mean it's still just an educated guess, but that's the best you can hope for.
The Nats just announced they didn't factor grounders back to the mound and pickoff throws into the equation. Strasburg is being shut down retroactive to July 19th.
cpebbles wrote:BTW, whether you go by the theory that pitchers of the past were physical aberrations who could pitch endlessly or that they backed off on and didn't throw every pitch at 100%, it's pretty clear that the same cannot be said for Strasburg so the workloads of 70s pitchers are not really relevant to the argument.
While true, I'm sure there have been many advancements to Tommy John surgery since the very first one too.
Agreed that it is apples to oranges. But can we also agree that 160 IP is fairly arbitrary?
It's an arbitrary number probably set by a medical team, so yes, I guess we can call it arbitrary as long as we accept that it wasn't some hoosier sitting in his basement that set it.
Also, can we agree that when pitchers from the 50s 60s and even 70s and 80s were growing up baseball was the most popular sport. The #1 sport that athletes aspired to play. And, there were less teams. So, less pitchers. Guys like strasburg were flashes in the pan at best and never reached the majors at worst. The guys you saw going 300 IP were the absolute cream of the crop. Get rid of football and basketball today and reduce the league to 20 teams and I would imagine you'll get a lot more reliable pitchers, some of whom probably never would pick up a baseball past HS in todays day and age.
cpebbles wrote:I've heard the 160 IP figure a lot, but it's just speculation as far as I can tell. I'm guessing the Nationals have put quite a bit of effort into figuring out whatever number they decided on to minimize the chance of reinjury while getting him stretched out sufficiently for a full 2013, so I wouldn't say it's "arbitrary." The vagaries of human performance mean it's still just an educated guess, but that's the best you can hope for.
OK, educated guess is probably the better term for it.
I say just take it easy on him down the stretch. Try to go 5 IP per start, lessen the number of breaking balls, take him out in high-stress innings no matter what the score, etc. That is, if you are pretty certain that you'll make the playoffs. The actual IP I don't believe is as important as these other factors. All IP are not created equal.
Another thing that never gets brought up but is a very real possibility is they shut SS down at 160 innings, he comes to camp next year and has shoudler issues. They then try to rehab it but it's already blown and he requires shoulder surgery never to be the sam epitcher and the Nats essentially shut him down for no reason.
