Out on a limb with Chris Duncan
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GatewaySnayke
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Perhaps. I find Duncan to be a fascinating player because he's a 25-year-old enjoying unprecedented success while being all kinds of clutchy, including a clutch-home run today. I noticed that he had 35 strikeouts to only 14 walks, and kind of balked at that. But then realized that since starting out the season with 15 strikeouts and zero walks, he's had 19 strikeouts to 14 walks. Much better, yes? The Cardinals could not have picked up a player at the trade deadline that is doing what he is right now. It's almost like a dream, and hopefully it never ends.
But if it's going to, it can end around the end of October.
But if it's going to, it can end around the end of October.
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HugeCardfan
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According to my calculations he has 21 bases for 24 at bats. That makes him .875 slugging since the bet not .791. He can't have regressed from yesterday. He added 5 bases in four at bats today, and he started the day at .800.GatewaySnayke wrote: Also, Duncan is now 13-for-24 since the bet began, and the slugging average has dipped to .791
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HugeCardfan
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I don't understand your logic. We've needed his bat lately to win games. The games count as much now as they will at the end of the season. If he's going to have a cold spell, I'd just as soon it happen after we've wrapped things up and be over before the postseason.docellis wrote:I wish we could have pushed his slugging streak a little further towards the end of the season. Especially if that is all it end up being (a streak).
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skmsw
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Way to go Dunc!! Here's hoping he makes a liar out of me.
I'm still not sold, myself, that we've moved from "hot" to "good" yet.
Many decided they'd seen enough to determine I was wrong about Miles, too, after he put up an OPS of 800 for the month of April, and had literally as many walks that month as his entire 2005. I was not ready to admit I was wrong, and since then? A 650 OPS.
I'm not equating Miles' performance with Duncan's -- Duncan has hit better, for longer. And as I've acknowledged in almost every post, there are things to like and reasons to stay optimistic -- solid AA and AAA years at age-appropriate levels, good batspeed with uppercut power stroke, etc. No one will be any happier than me if what we see is what we get.
But I remain a skeptic. Players rarely out-perform their track records by THIS much and stay at the new level consistently. Even the most optimistic projections based only on his good years put him in the category of .450-.470. We've yet to see him go through any real cold streak.
The guy has yet to go more than two starts in a row without a hit. Almost 30% of his fly balls are going for home runs. His BABIP is still over .380. All this from a guy whose very best, most encouraging years were suggesting an up-side OPS of 775-850?
I admit my .440 looks bad right now, and I hope as much as any of you that it's WAY low and I lose by A LOT. As of now, he is at .875 since games of 8/11. But odds are, there are both a cold streak, and a regression towards his true talent level, waiting to be seen in 2006. We're yet to see if the sum of those things, plus that seven games of .875, is at, above, or below .440.
I'm still not sold, myself, that we've moved from "hot" to "good" yet.
Many decided they'd seen enough to determine I was wrong about Miles, too, after he put up an OPS of 800 for the month of April, and had literally as many walks that month as his entire 2005. I was not ready to admit I was wrong, and since then? A 650 OPS.
I'm not equating Miles' performance with Duncan's -- Duncan has hit better, for longer. And as I've acknowledged in almost every post, there are things to like and reasons to stay optimistic -- solid AA and AAA years at age-appropriate levels, good batspeed with uppercut power stroke, etc. No one will be any happier than me if what we see is what we get.
But I remain a skeptic. Players rarely out-perform their track records by THIS much and stay at the new level consistently. Even the most optimistic projections based only on his good years put him in the category of .450-.470. We've yet to see him go through any real cold streak.
The guy has yet to go more than two starts in a row without a hit. Almost 30% of his fly balls are going for home runs. His BABIP is still over .380. All this from a guy whose very best, most encouraging years were suggesting an up-side OPS of 775-850?
I admit my .440 looks bad right now, and I hope as much as any of you that it's WAY low and I lose by A LOT. As of now, he is at .875 since games of 8/11. But odds are, there are both a cold streak, and a regression towards his true talent level, waiting to be seen in 2006. We're yet to see if the sum of those things, plus that seven games of .875, is at, above, or below .440.
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Fat Strat
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HugeCardfan
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Yeah we can live with a .440 slugger and an .800 OPS. No doubt it is the upper end of what most of us would have projected for Duncan. That said, I'm not willing to put Duncan in that box quite yet.
We're not talking about one month of production here. Albeit sparing use early, he now has over 160 at bats. He has not dropped below .500 slugging the entire season. His hitting has virtually grown up in the last three years. Even since spring training he has gradually earned Tony's respect. Since June 16 he has improved the delta between BA and OBP 65 points. He seems to hit against lefties as well as righties.
Duncan has been an ideal number two hitter for the Cardinals. He is developing a good eye, striking out less, walking some...while hitting the ball very hard to all fields; to the point that pitchers are pitching more carefully despite the fact that Albert is next up. He won't likely be mistaken for a traditional number two since he will steal very few bases and likely not bunt a lot. But that's not something we'd be looking for as it opens a base for the pitcher to put Albert. In a lot of respects he reminds me of Larry Walker. He hits the ball on a line and the pitchers have to respect his power.
Ok. He probably isn't a .340 hitter. But his ability to keep that batting average at this level for 160 at bats suggests that we might have somebody pretty special who is adjusting very well to major league pitching and morphing into just what the doctor ordered for this team.
Maybe he will become a .440 slugger next year. But I wouldn't bet on it.
We're not talking about one month of production here. Albeit sparing use early, he now has over 160 at bats. He has not dropped below .500 slugging the entire season. His hitting has virtually grown up in the last three years. Even since spring training he has gradually earned Tony's respect. Since June 16 he has improved the delta between BA and OBP 65 points. He seems to hit against lefties as well as righties.
Duncan has been an ideal number two hitter for the Cardinals. He is developing a good eye, striking out less, walking some...while hitting the ball very hard to all fields; to the point that pitchers are pitching more carefully despite the fact that Albert is next up. He won't likely be mistaken for a traditional number two since he will steal very few bases and likely not bunt a lot. But that's not something we'd be looking for as it opens a base for the pitcher to put Albert. In a lot of respects he reminds me of Larry Walker. He hits the ball on a line and the pitchers have to respect his power.
Ok. He probably isn't a .340 hitter. But his ability to keep that batting average at this level for 160 at bats suggests that we might have somebody pretty special who is adjusting very well to major league pitching and morphing into just what the doctor ordered for this team.
Maybe he will become a .440 slugger next year. But I wouldn't bet on it.
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HugeCardfan
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docellis
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Oh you are probably right.HugeCardfan wrote:I don't understand your logic. We've needed his bat lately to win games. The games count as much now as they will at the end of the season. If he's going to have a cold spell, I'd just as soon it happen after we've wrapped things up and be over before the postseason.docellis wrote:I wish we could have pushed his slugging streak a little further towards the end of the season. Especially if that is all it end up being (a streak).
I was just imagining that his "streak" would last something like, exactly 8 weeks or something. And I want that 8 week streak to last into October if it happens to be a streak.
I'd be happier if it wasn't a streak though.
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Schlich
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steve, i have a question, and i'm not relating it to duncan in any way, it just came to my mind since this topic is up.
What were your projections for Pujols his rookie year? Did you see him becoming a washout, a consistent player, or a top-tier major leaguer (let alone thebest player)
be honest
and p.s. how do duncan's minor league stats compare to albert's?? I'm not saying we have a second coming of Albert... that would be waay too much to ask for. We already won one crapshoot. I'm just saying that h.s/college/minor league stats dont mean much. Some hitters are just made for the Major Leagues
Here's to hoping baby dunc is for real
What were your projections for Pujols his rookie year? Did you see him becoming a washout, a consistent player, or a top-tier major leaguer (let alone thebest player)
be honest
and p.s. how do duncan's minor league stats compare to albert's?? I'm not saying we have a second coming of Albert... that would be waay too much to ask for. We already won one crapshoot. I'm just saying that h.s/college/minor league stats dont mean much. Some hitters are just made for the Major Leagues
Here's to hoping baby dunc is for real