2026 MLB Draft

[phins]

From ESPNs winners of the draft so far…

Who is the one player you'd like to plant your flag in as the biggest steal of this draft?

I've been stumping for Trevor Condon for almost a year as a very high floor and high probability big leaguer from the high school class. He also fits in a similar category as a previous "plant my flag" guy from the 2023 draft: Kevin McGonigle.

I wouldn't expect that outcome if I were a Cardinals fan, but both players were plus hitters with real defensive value but shorter stature; Condon is a plus runner, intense personality, has strong pull/lift traits in his swing already, and is a strong center field defender. He could just be a low-end starter but this sort of player is often underrated at this stage. The list of shorter position players who blew past their projections to make All-Star teams is quite long now.

I would take Kevin McGonigle in CF, I guess.

[CardsofSTL]

Picks + slot values

13. Trevor Condon, OF, Etowah HS (Ga.)

slot value: $5,661,300

32*. Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Tennessee

slot value: $3,044,600

50. Rocco Maniscalso, SS, Oxford (Alabama) HS

slot value: $1,982,700

68**. Andrew Williamson, OF, UCF

slot value: $1,285,500

72**. Dawson Montesa, RHP, West Virginia

slot value: $1,174,300

86. Caden Ferrraro, OF, Texas Tech

slot value: $943,600

114. Dee Kennedy, SS, Kansas State

slot value: $684,300

[CardsofSTL]

Here's the Cardinals #1 pick on MLB Network

[WAR God]

Kyle Reis said the reason I think Cardinals fell for Condon better than I could.

I don’t think Chaim puts too much stock into this. other than, if the team puts him in different labs…He’s going to take it very seriously.

[phins]

Kyle Reis said the reason I think Cardinals fell for Condon better than I could.

I don’t think Chaim puts too much stock into this. other than, if the team puts him in different labs…He’s going to take it very seriously.

You don't think Chaim puts too much stock into character? Goodness, I sure hope he does.

Character and capacity to work at your game are the differences in making it big and washing out for countless players.

Delvin Perez and Pete Kozma are two examples of players I know quite a bit about their work ethics at the AA level and they were not well thought of in that regard.

[HardcoreCardsFan]

Another flashing light that is clear is that the Cardinals continue to be one of the leading teams at emphasizing age in their picks. The younger the better for their model.

I've always thought it was odd how age is such a deal-breaker to many teams regarding draft prospects. It doesn't seem like there would be such an enormous gap between a guy drafted at 18.0 years old and 18.8 years old, for example, but teams really seem to put stock in it. I'm not criticizing it; there must be some evidence to show that there is a marked difference in their potential or their development stage or whatever. It's just fascinating how such a subtle difference in age ends up being so important.

[phins]

Another flashing light that is clear is that the Cardinals continue to be one of the leading teams at emphasizing age in their picks. The younger the better for their model.

I've always thought it was odd how age is such a deal-breaker to many teams regarding draft prospects. It doesn't seem like there would be such an enormous gap between a guy drafted at 18.0 years old and 18.8 years old, for example, but teams really seem to put stock in it. I'm not criticizing it; there must be some evidence to show that there is a marked difference in their potential or their development stage or whatever. It's just fascinating how such a subtle difference in age ends up being so important.

This is an area I haven't done research for baseball.

That said, in grad school one of my big papers was on this topic for the NFL draft. I was blown away at how much clear evidence and signal there was for age predicting better outcomes regardless of round, position, and ranking.

Obviously, there is bias in this data as the best players tend to be younger, they are told by the NFL to come out early (it's a proxy for talent as players who aren't good enough to get picked are staying in school and/or the draft council recommends they stay in school etc.).

If I were so inclined I should repeat a version of the study for baseball. I still have that football study and reference it quite a bit.

[phins]

One of the reasons I've been lower on Condon than many (I wouldn't say than consensus, since he was rated more back half of the first round than top of the first) is the slight frame and lack of real damage to the baseball. My fear is that once he faces big arms, they will knock the bat out of his hands.

When I watched him last in-games, he was facing top arms on the circuit and really pounded the ball in the ground- often pull side- and already getting dominated enough to hit pull-side ground balls is a bad sign for a high schooler. If this review is correct (and these guys do a good job) and he is getting into his legs more and finding more impact, it would mitigate many of my fears with him.

The PCA comparisons are overblown, he's never been anywhere near that level of glove or power, but a rich man's Nathan Church is a good player as is, with the potential to be something like a Michael Harris II or Ceddanne Rafaela type.

One of the few top prospects we don’t have a write-up about on the site, Trevor Condon has had major draft helium since the early spring as his power started to catch up to what was a very promising 4-tool player coming into the spring. Condon is like a younger and faster but less polished version of the aforementioned Derek Curiel. He makes a lot of contact at the plate with a more untraditional stop-start swing. This made him more ground ball-prone on the circuit last summer, but this spring he has gotten into his legs more, and this has allowed him to both elevate the ball more, as well as use what was already plus bat speed to its full power potential. In the field, Condon is one of the fastest players in this draft, with scouts regularly giving him a 70 or even 80-grade run tool at times. This speed should allow Condon to man centerfield at a well-above-average level in the minors and potentially the MLB level. He has a solid arm, which should be more than fine in centerfield. A fiery athlete, many scouts have praised Condon’s competitiveness and willingness to put his body on the line during games.

Condon has firmly asserted himself as one of the better second-tier prep prospects in this year's draft, and based on reports mainly from Kiley McDaniel, was of some interest to the Cardinals early in the draft cycle. If that level of interest is still in play, that is hard to tell, but Condon’s overall skillset should intrigue any team in the 10-20 range of this year's draft. There is some obvious risk in any high school prospect's profile, but I feel that Condon’s speed and defense, along with his good contact tool, gives him a bit of a higher floor than most high school prospects, while still having plenty of upside to be an intriguing top prospect.

https://www.cardinalsprospects.com/arti ... ck-preview

[cardsfantx]

#146 in the 5th round; cal randall P UCLA

[phins]

This is another big fastball guy. Lots of Tanner Franklin here (not saying he's going to be that guy).

Never found a command at UCLA. Huge 6'4/230 frame, decent athlete, gets down the mound ok.

Huge legs. Extends at a near-elite rate and enables him to throw FBs up at elite flat approaches. This is your typical approach angle arm.

Fastball legit topping 100. Almost 20 command, but the shape is an 80. He's the type of guy with a fastball grade at 60, but with something resembling average command could make that fastball a 70 or 80.

This guy is literally almost all fastballs, I think he threw it something like 90% of the time and has almost no secondaries, though what he does have tunnel well with the fastball.

Complete dev ball of clay, with the frame, arm strength, and fastball characteristics to be an elite reliever, with an outside chance of running him out there as a fastball dependent starting pitcher. I'd guess he will be every bit of slot if not a bit more.

Really good pick here.