2007 Diamond Mind Replay
Posted: March 11 07, 1:39 pm
I've been busy this weekend, the projection disk came out for 2007 from Diamond Mind and I ran 50 seasons that I will share. I'll give some background on the runs in case you are interested in the details, otherwise just go to the bottom to see the results.
Each March, Diamond Mind Baseball (http://www.diamond-mind.com) comes out with an early season projection to be followed up by a late season projection in late March. The only differences between the two are the latter reflects roster changes, player roles, injuries etc.. that have been revealed in March.
If you aren't familiar with the game, it's a text based simulation game basically like Strat-o-Matic if you are familiar with that. Player records contain virtually every offensive category you can think of, as well as being rated for defensive range, error rating, arm rating, baserunning, bunting and on and on. There is also a Computer Manager feature which you use if you don't want to have human interaction when replaying a game. The CM has a multitude of options, from how often to steal to how often So Taguchi will get starts in CF with a left handed pitcher on the mound.
Each player record comes with the "As played" stats associated with him. For a projection disk, the "As played" is simply a projection of how much that player will play. An option called "Limit Bench Playing Time" forces the CM to keep playing time to within some range of the as played. This comes into play with a guy like Mulder, who according to the DMB projections will get 16 starts. This option was turned on during my replay.
I replayed using the disk out of the box with one exception. The default is to use random injuries, however I changed this option to use the injury rating associated with a player. If you are going to project injuries, may as well use them. I certainly had the desire to tweak here and there, but I'm certain most of the teams could be tweaked and I felt it fairer to just leave it as it was.
At the end of the month, Diamond Mind will come out with a similiar run of 100 seasons. They detail things a little more, going into why things turned out the way they do. In addition, they are using the later projection disks.
Anyway, on with the results. I ran the season 50 times, recording wins, division championships, and wild card births in a spreadsheet. In case of a tie for a division title, I looked at the head to head record and gave the title to the team with the better record. For wild card, I just split it - .5 for one team and .5 for the other. In one case, there was a tie for a division title and the teams split the season series. That's as far as I'm going to dig, I don't even know off the top of my head how to break that tie. The key really is wins, if you play it enough the teams with the most wins will have the most playoff appearances. I just tracked it because I thought it was neat.
Notes on the Cardinals.
1. Kinney is on the roster and healthy.
2. Mulder is slated for around 16 starts.
3. Narveson is the 5th starter when Mulder is not around, not Looper.
For each team, I'll list the average number of wins over the 50 runs, and then in parens the number of division championships/wild card births.
Each March, Diamond Mind Baseball (http://www.diamond-mind.com) comes out with an early season projection to be followed up by a late season projection in late March. The only differences between the two are the latter reflects roster changes, player roles, injuries etc.. that have been revealed in March.
If you aren't familiar with the game, it's a text based simulation game basically like Strat-o-Matic if you are familiar with that. Player records contain virtually every offensive category you can think of, as well as being rated for defensive range, error rating, arm rating, baserunning, bunting and on and on. There is also a Computer Manager feature which you use if you don't want to have human interaction when replaying a game. The CM has a multitude of options, from how often to steal to how often So Taguchi will get starts in CF with a left handed pitcher on the mound.
Each player record comes with the "As played" stats associated with him. For a projection disk, the "As played" is simply a projection of how much that player will play. An option called "Limit Bench Playing Time" forces the CM to keep playing time to within some range of the as played. This comes into play with a guy like Mulder, who according to the DMB projections will get 16 starts. This option was turned on during my replay.
I replayed using the disk out of the box with one exception. The default is to use random injuries, however I changed this option to use the injury rating associated with a player. If you are going to project injuries, may as well use them. I certainly had the desire to tweak here and there, but I'm certain most of the teams could be tweaked and I felt it fairer to just leave it as it was.
At the end of the month, Diamond Mind will come out with a similiar run of 100 seasons. They detail things a little more, going into why things turned out the way they do. In addition, they are using the later projection disks.
Anyway, on with the results. I ran the season 50 times, recording wins, division championships, and wild card births in a spreadsheet. In case of a tie for a division title, I looked at the head to head record and gave the title to the team with the better record. For wild card, I just split it - .5 for one team and .5 for the other. In one case, there was a tie for a division title and the teams split the season series. That's as far as I'm going to dig, I don't even know off the top of my head how to break that tie. The key really is wins, if you play it enough the teams with the most wins will have the most playoff appearances. I just tracked it because I thought it was neat.
Notes on the Cardinals.
1. Kinney is on the roster and healthy.
2. Mulder is slated for around 16 starts.
3. Narveson is the 5th starter when Mulder is not around, not Looper.
For each team, I'll list the average number of wins over the 50 runs, and then in parens the number of division championships/wild card births.
Code: Select all
AL East
NYA 96.20 37/7
TOR 90.48 10/13
BOS 85.30 3/8
BAL 75.76 0/1
TB 69.20 0/0
AL Central
DET 90.26 19/5
CLE 89.90 18/9
MIN 88.4 12/6.5
CHA 76.10 1/0
KC 64.32 0/0
AL West
LAA 85.00 22/0
OAK 83.96 20/0
SEA 78.62 5/0.5
TEX 78.20 3/0
NL East
PHI 85.84 17/7.5
ATL 85.08 18/6
NYN 82.08 13/4
WAS 74.74 1/2.5
FLA 73.06 1/1
NL Central
STL 84.16 19/3
CHN 83.38 17/5
MIL 79.48 8/3.5
HOU 79.06 3/3
CIN 76.24 3/0
PIT 72.12 0/0
NL West
SD 87.80 31.5/3
LAN 83.16 11/8
ARI 78.06 2/0.5
SF 76.90 3/2
COL 76.86 2.5/1