2007 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout
Posted: March 22 07, 7:03 am
Today, VEB tipped off readers to the DM sims run by a site called Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, featuring four different projection systems. The entry is way too lengthy to post here, but I'd recommend clicking on the link, there is a lot of interesting stuff there. Here's lboros' abbreviated version:
on tuesday night, SG posted the results of the 3d annual Diamond Mind projection blowout at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. he ran the 2007 season 4,000 times, using four different sets of projection data (chone, PECOTA, ZIPS, and Diamond Mind) for 1,000 seasons apiece. head over to SG's site for all the details, which are plenty juicy; i'll just post the aggregated results (ie, the average of all 4,000 seasons) for the nl central:
actually, stl edged out the cubs by .2 of a game, 84.4 wins to 84.2. in other words, over those 4,000 seasons the cardinals won about 337,600 games, while the cubs won about 336,800. that's pretty tight, boys and girls. a few other items of note:Code: Select all
W L GB RS RA st louis 84 78 -- 758 721 chicago 84 78 -- 808 775 milwaukee 81 81 3 764 768 houston 80 82 4 775 788 cincinnati 73 89 11 749 819 pittsburgh 73 89 11 723 798
* the cards' worst showing came in the PECOTA projection --- they averaged an 80-82 record, fourth best in the division and 5 games worse than the cubs.
* their best showing was in the ZIPS projection --- average record of 90-72, the best not only in the division but in the whole national league, and second only to the yankees in mlb.
* they finished no worse than 2d in the national league in runs allowed in any of the four projections. in the aggregate projection (all 4,000 seasons) they averaged the lowest runs-allowed total in baseball, 721.
* among the four projections, the cardinals finished no better than 9th (tied) in the national league in runs scored --- and were as low as 15th (PECOTA); in the aggregate, the offense ranks 13th out of 16 national league clubs. for all the worry about the pitching staff, the simulation exercises have consistently indicated that the offense is where our concern ought to lie. the offense could really suck.
* the cardinals won their division 1,382 times, or 35 percent of the time --- 3d-best showing in the national league (the phillies and padres won their divisions 39 pct of the time). the cards made the playoffs as either a division winner or wild card 41.6 percent of the time, 4th best showing in the league (behind the mets, padres, and phillies).