NL Central with Unnamed Scout
Posted: March 22 07, 2:22 pm
This is from The Soul of Baseball blog, I found it referenced in VEB. The scout is pretty blunt. Good read.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
The NL Central with Unnamed Scout
Every baseball writer needs a good unnamed scout. It’s actually better to have several of them in the Rolodex. This is because unnamed scouts are, more or less, the last honest people on earth. Deep Throat from Watergate? Unnamed scout.
Take Angel Berroa. You already know Berroa is probably the worst every day player in baseball. You know he had the worst on-base percentage and the worst slugging percentage in the American League last year. Some of his at-bats were so bad you wondered if he understood the rudimentary rules of the game. He couldn’t run a lick, his defense was sloppy, his fielding range about equal to the acting range of Jean-Claude Van Damme (though to be fair we should point out that in the exquisite film In Hell,Van Damme played Kyle, aka "The Savage" aka "The Shu." Since he has two "akas" for one film, you have to give him the range nod).
Here’s what named scouts – that is, scouts wiling to go on the record – say about Berroa: “He needs to be more patient at the plate. … He seems to have been slowed a bit last year, but a good off-season workout regiment could help him regain some of his quickness and agility. … The Royals hope he can regain his rookie of the year form, but they appear to be losing patience.”
OK, here’s what an unnamed scout says.
“He’s awful. Horrible. I wouldn’t have him as a backup. … He still can’t recognize a slider, and he’s so spooked by that he will just watch fastballs go right down the middle of the plate. He has lost about three steps too. … Royals are stuck with a bad contract, so they will keep playing him even though he’s absolutely killing them.”
The truth is, all of these scouts are saying the same thing. The unnamed scout, though, says it bluntly. That's why we like them unnamed. With that introduction, the following is the last of our division previews, which were a blast to do. Thank you to Alex Belth, Rich Lederer, Seth Mnookin, Rob Neyer, Michael Rosenberg, Mike Vaccaro (Web site coming soon) and finally Unnamed Scout.
Editor's note: The following is based on a series of conversations I had with my good friend Unnamed Scout. I took a few liberties to make the question and answer flow better, but all opinions (I hope) are fully representative of his views. So you could say this Q&A – like most movies today – is inspired by true events.
First, rank the NL Central 1-5.
1. St. Louis. They somehow find a way every year. And it’s a bad division.
2. Milwaukee. If Ben Sheets can stay on the field, they’re a threat.
3. Houston. I don’t like their pitching much after Roy Oswalt.
4. Chicago. I don’t really understand what they did this off-season.
5. Cincinnati. Not too good.
6. Pittsburgh. Ditto.
Let’s start with the Cardinals. Do you think they're primed to repeat.
As World Series champs? No. But I think they're probably still the class of this division. It's pretty meager out there.
Do you like Adam Wainwright as a starter or as a reliever?
Well, I’d like to see him as a starter, but I don’t think they’re going to have that option. They won the World Series last year because of the way Wainwright pitched coming out of the bullpen. And with Jason Isringhausen coming off of the injury, I just think they’re going to need someone they can count on to pitch the late innings in close games. I think Wainwright will be back in the bullpen by late May for sure.
Is Albert Pujols the best hitter you’ve seen since you started scouting?
I’d say Manny Ramirez. The guy’s unbelievable. Everything Manny does in the field and away from the field overshadows his hitting – but he’s the best hitter I’ve ever seen. He has a plan he takes to the plate every single time – this guy will purposely swing and miss at a curveball in spring training just so he can get that same curveball during a more important game in August. He’s constantly setting up pitchers. ... But obviously Pujols is right there. When you see someone who has that much strength with that efficient a swing – that’s a rare combination.
You like Milwaukee?
I do. Well, in that division I do. They could have one hell of a pitching staff with Sheets and Chris Capuano. I mean, that’s one hell of a 1-2, if Sheets can just stay healthy. I just don’t know if Sheets CAN stay healthy.
Could Sheets-Capuano be the best 1-2 combination in the National League?
I’d have to think about that for a second. (Seconds pass). Yeah, I think it could. Arizona could be better with Randy Johnson and Brandon Webb, maybe.
You think Randy Johnson still has a good year left in him?
It’s the National League. Anything can happen. Look at Chris Carpenter – he's horse(bleep) in the American League, then he goes to the National League and suddenly he’s winning Cy Youngs.
So, it’s probably fair to say that you didn’t see Carpenter emerging.
No way. The thing about Carpenter in Toronto is that he was so (bleeping) hittable. Every time I saw him, hitters banged him all over the yard. He had no deception. His strikeout numbers weren’t anything to get excited about. He pitched a little better at the end there in Toronto, if I remember right, and then he got hurt. Then he went to the National League and became Bob Gibson. It’s crazy. I mean, everybody always knew he had good stuff, but lots of guys have stuff. He’s definitely surprised me. Good for him. That’s what’s great about baseball.
Back to Milwaukee. You a Rickie Weeks fan?
I was always a fan of his offense, but I never thought he’d play even a single game at second base in the big leagues. I hear that he’s really improved his defense, and that's a credit to him because I thought there was no way. We’ll see. I still think he could be one hell of a center fielder. He will hit if his wrist is OK.
A lot of people like Houston as a surprise team. You?
No. I don’t like their pitching much. Jason Jennings has to show it to me -- I know everybody's excited about him, and he'll make a lot of money as a free agent. But for me, he's got to show he can be a top of the rotation guy for a first division club. And then, it's what? Woody Williams? How long can he keep going? And their No. 4 and No. 5 starters -- Wandy Rodriguez? I'm just not sold on that staff.
Will Brad Lidge have a rebound year?
I don’t know. That’s the $5 million dollar question. I understand his stuff is getting close to what it was – his velocity, I mean. He’s not throwing 100 anymore, but he’s back in the mid-90s. I still hear his slider is inconsistent. I don’t think he will be the guy he was in the playoffs a couple of years ago, put it that way. Nobody could touch him then. Now, I think he's pretty hittable. But, hey, he still has plus stuff. If he has a good year, they’ll be glad they spent the money to keep him. If not, well, you know.
How good will Carlos Lee be in Houston?
I think he will have a monster year. He’ll put up huge numbers in that ballpark, and I think defensively he will be hidden better than he was in Milwaukee. I thought that was a great signing.
Speaking of great signings, do you think Jason Marquis was a great signing by the Cubs?
Uh, no.
So, you don’t see Marquis having a bounce-back season?
I wouldn’t bet on it. … You’ve got a fly ball pitcher going to Wrigley? I don’t see it. But I guess they wanted to take a flyer on a guy. Pitching was hard to come by this off-season. You know that in Kansas City. Marquis' stuff has to be better than it was at the end of the season. He had absolutely nothing.
Mark Prior. Can he stay healthy?
No. His velocity is way down. … That’s just wear and tear, plain and simple. They threw him out there in the big leagues when he was what? 21? 22? Sure, he pitched well, but that will catch up to you. They gave him a lot of innings in the big leagues right away and – this is something a lot of people don’t understand – big league innings are a lot different than minor-league innings. The intensity level is so much higher. Batters foul off your good pitches, they spit on the outside sliders. You have to work hard to get every batter out. So every inning you throw in the big leagues is like an inning and a half or two innings of minor league ball. That really strains your arm when you're just a kid. How many innings did Prior throw -- not his rookie year, but that second season? (Answer: 211). Yeah, for me, that's way too much for a kid a year or two out of college. It’s really going to be tough for him to come all the way back.
Will Alfonso Soriano have a big year?
Yeah, I think he will. He’s hitting the ball really well in spring. He’s one hell of a talent. The key with Soriano is that he is what he is. He’s going to strike out a bunch, he’ll go for stretches where he tries to pull everything out of the park, he will look disinterested in the field sometimes. But he’ll hit 40 home runs, he’ll steal a bunch of bases, he walked a lot more last year, and I think he plays the game pretty hard. You just need to know what you're getting.
Speaking of strikeouts, where do you stand on Adam Dunn?
I like him, but he’s getting to the point where he might be too expensive for what he gives you. He’s a one-dimensional guy. You’re killing yourself when you play him in the field. They want to put him back at first base – I’m telling you right now: No way. He’s a brutal first baseman.
Do his strikeouts bother you?
For me, personally, no. I think he’d be a terrific designated hitter. He hits the long ball and he walks a lot. You can live with the strikeouts. I keep hearing people say that he should shorten his swing or whatever -- look, he’s not going to change. Adam's a (bleep) you guy. He doesn’t care what people say. I like that about him. I just don’t think a team like the Reds can pay him because he’s a huge defensive liability.
Is Aaron Harang a legit No. 1 starter?
No. I don’t think so. Not for a first division club. I like him a lot, but I don’t think he’s Santana or Schilling or Halladay or one of those guys. That’s not an insult, though -- there aren’t many true No. 1s in baseball these days. I’d take Aaron Harang as my No. 2 starter.
Is there anything to like about Pittsburgh these days?
Well, I’ll tell you – they’ve got the young guy there, Ian Snell. Wow. I mean wow. He’s got some great stuff. Off the chart stuff. You want to talk about someone who has a chance to be a No 1 pitcher – he’s got a chance. I’ve seen him a few times, and I’m really, really impressed. For the Pirates, it’s going to come down to their young pitching. I don’t know where that’s going. But watch out for Snell, I’m telling you.
Posted by Joe Posnanski at 8:32 AM
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
The NL Central with Unnamed Scout
Every baseball writer needs a good unnamed scout. It’s actually better to have several of them in the Rolodex. This is because unnamed scouts are, more or less, the last honest people on earth. Deep Throat from Watergate? Unnamed scout.
Take Angel Berroa. You already know Berroa is probably the worst every day player in baseball. You know he had the worst on-base percentage and the worst slugging percentage in the American League last year. Some of his at-bats were so bad you wondered if he understood the rudimentary rules of the game. He couldn’t run a lick, his defense was sloppy, his fielding range about equal to the acting range of Jean-Claude Van Damme (though to be fair we should point out that in the exquisite film In Hell,Van Damme played Kyle, aka "The Savage" aka "The Shu." Since he has two "akas" for one film, you have to give him the range nod).
Here’s what named scouts – that is, scouts wiling to go on the record – say about Berroa: “He needs to be more patient at the plate. … He seems to have been slowed a bit last year, but a good off-season workout regiment could help him regain some of his quickness and agility. … The Royals hope he can regain his rookie of the year form, but they appear to be losing patience.”
OK, here’s what an unnamed scout says.
“He’s awful. Horrible. I wouldn’t have him as a backup. … He still can’t recognize a slider, and he’s so spooked by that he will just watch fastballs go right down the middle of the plate. He has lost about three steps too. … Royals are stuck with a bad contract, so they will keep playing him even though he’s absolutely killing them.”
The truth is, all of these scouts are saying the same thing. The unnamed scout, though, says it bluntly. That's why we like them unnamed. With that introduction, the following is the last of our division previews, which were a blast to do. Thank you to Alex Belth, Rich Lederer, Seth Mnookin, Rob Neyer, Michael Rosenberg, Mike Vaccaro (Web site coming soon) and finally Unnamed Scout.
Editor's note: The following is based on a series of conversations I had with my good friend Unnamed Scout. I took a few liberties to make the question and answer flow better, but all opinions (I hope) are fully representative of his views. So you could say this Q&A – like most movies today – is inspired by true events.
First, rank the NL Central 1-5.
1. St. Louis. They somehow find a way every year. And it’s a bad division.
2. Milwaukee. If Ben Sheets can stay on the field, they’re a threat.
3. Houston. I don’t like their pitching much after Roy Oswalt.
4. Chicago. I don’t really understand what they did this off-season.
5. Cincinnati. Not too good.
6. Pittsburgh. Ditto.
Let’s start with the Cardinals. Do you think they're primed to repeat.
As World Series champs? No. But I think they're probably still the class of this division. It's pretty meager out there.
Do you like Adam Wainwright as a starter or as a reliever?
Well, I’d like to see him as a starter, but I don’t think they’re going to have that option. They won the World Series last year because of the way Wainwright pitched coming out of the bullpen. And with Jason Isringhausen coming off of the injury, I just think they’re going to need someone they can count on to pitch the late innings in close games. I think Wainwright will be back in the bullpen by late May for sure.
Is Albert Pujols the best hitter you’ve seen since you started scouting?
I’d say Manny Ramirez. The guy’s unbelievable. Everything Manny does in the field and away from the field overshadows his hitting – but he’s the best hitter I’ve ever seen. He has a plan he takes to the plate every single time – this guy will purposely swing and miss at a curveball in spring training just so he can get that same curveball during a more important game in August. He’s constantly setting up pitchers. ... But obviously Pujols is right there. When you see someone who has that much strength with that efficient a swing – that’s a rare combination.
You like Milwaukee?
I do. Well, in that division I do. They could have one hell of a pitching staff with Sheets and Chris Capuano. I mean, that’s one hell of a 1-2, if Sheets can just stay healthy. I just don’t know if Sheets CAN stay healthy.
Could Sheets-Capuano be the best 1-2 combination in the National League?
I’d have to think about that for a second. (Seconds pass). Yeah, I think it could. Arizona could be better with Randy Johnson and Brandon Webb, maybe.
You think Randy Johnson still has a good year left in him?
It’s the National League. Anything can happen. Look at Chris Carpenter – he's horse(bleep) in the American League, then he goes to the National League and suddenly he’s winning Cy Youngs.
So, it’s probably fair to say that you didn’t see Carpenter emerging.
No way. The thing about Carpenter in Toronto is that he was so (bleeping) hittable. Every time I saw him, hitters banged him all over the yard. He had no deception. His strikeout numbers weren’t anything to get excited about. He pitched a little better at the end there in Toronto, if I remember right, and then he got hurt. Then he went to the National League and became Bob Gibson. It’s crazy. I mean, everybody always knew he had good stuff, but lots of guys have stuff. He’s definitely surprised me. Good for him. That’s what’s great about baseball.
Back to Milwaukee. You a Rickie Weeks fan?
I was always a fan of his offense, but I never thought he’d play even a single game at second base in the big leagues. I hear that he’s really improved his defense, and that's a credit to him because I thought there was no way. We’ll see. I still think he could be one hell of a center fielder. He will hit if his wrist is OK.
A lot of people like Houston as a surprise team. You?
No. I don’t like their pitching much. Jason Jennings has to show it to me -- I know everybody's excited about him, and he'll make a lot of money as a free agent. But for me, he's got to show he can be a top of the rotation guy for a first division club. And then, it's what? Woody Williams? How long can he keep going? And their No. 4 and No. 5 starters -- Wandy Rodriguez? I'm just not sold on that staff.
Will Brad Lidge have a rebound year?
I don’t know. That’s the $5 million dollar question. I understand his stuff is getting close to what it was – his velocity, I mean. He’s not throwing 100 anymore, but he’s back in the mid-90s. I still hear his slider is inconsistent. I don’t think he will be the guy he was in the playoffs a couple of years ago, put it that way. Nobody could touch him then. Now, I think he's pretty hittable. But, hey, he still has plus stuff. If he has a good year, they’ll be glad they spent the money to keep him. If not, well, you know.
How good will Carlos Lee be in Houston?
I think he will have a monster year. He’ll put up huge numbers in that ballpark, and I think defensively he will be hidden better than he was in Milwaukee. I thought that was a great signing.
Speaking of great signings, do you think Jason Marquis was a great signing by the Cubs?
Uh, no.
So, you don’t see Marquis having a bounce-back season?
I wouldn’t bet on it. … You’ve got a fly ball pitcher going to Wrigley? I don’t see it. But I guess they wanted to take a flyer on a guy. Pitching was hard to come by this off-season. You know that in Kansas City. Marquis' stuff has to be better than it was at the end of the season. He had absolutely nothing.
Mark Prior. Can he stay healthy?
No. His velocity is way down. … That’s just wear and tear, plain and simple. They threw him out there in the big leagues when he was what? 21? 22? Sure, he pitched well, but that will catch up to you. They gave him a lot of innings in the big leagues right away and – this is something a lot of people don’t understand – big league innings are a lot different than minor-league innings. The intensity level is so much higher. Batters foul off your good pitches, they spit on the outside sliders. You have to work hard to get every batter out. So every inning you throw in the big leagues is like an inning and a half or two innings of minor league ball. That really strains your arm when you're just a kid. How many innings did Prior throw -- not his rookie year, but that second season? (Answer: 211). Yeah, for me, that's way too much for a kid a year or two out of college. It’s really going to be tough for him to come all the way back.
Will Alfonso Soriano have a big year?
Yeah, I think he will. He’s hitting the ball really well in spring. He’s one hell of a talent. The key with Soriano is that he is what he is. He’s going to strike out a bunch, he’ll go for stretches where he tries to pull everything out of the park, he will look disinterested in the field sometimes. But he’ll hit 40 home runs, he’ll steal a bunch of bases, he walked a lot more last year, and I think he plays the game pretty hard. You just need to know what you're getting.
Speaking of strikeouts, where do you stand on Adam Dunn?
I like him, but he’s getting to the point where he might be too expensive for what he gives you. He’s a one-dimensional guy. You’re killing yourself when you play him in the field. They want to put him back at first base – I’m telling you right now: No way. He’s a brutal first baseman.
Do his strikeouts bother you?
For me, personally, no. I think he’d be a terrific designated hitter. He hits the long ball and he walks a lot. You can live with the strikeouts. I keep hearing people say that he should shorten his swing or whatever -- look, he’s not going to change. Adam's a (bleep) you guy. He doesn’t care what people say. I like that about him. I just don’t think a team like the Reds can pay him because he’s a huge defensive liability.
Is Aaron Harang a legit No. 1 starter?
No. I don’t think so. Not for a first division club. I like him a lot, but I don’t think he’s Santana or Schilling or Halladay or one of those guys. That’s not an insult, though -- there aren’t many true No. 1s in baseball these days. I’d take Aaron Harang as my No. 2 starter.
Is there anything to like about Pittsburgh these days?
Well, I’ll tell you – they’ve got the young guy there, Ian Snell. Wow. I mean wow. He’s got some great stuff. Off the chart stuff. You want to talk about someone who has a chance to be a No 1 pitcher – he’s got a chance. I’ve seen him a few times, and I’m really, really impressed. For the Pirates, it’s going to come down to their young pitching. I don’t know where that’s going. But watch out for Snell, I’m telling you.
Posted by Joe Posnanski at 8:32 AM