Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Projected Standings, NL Central

[haltz]

NL CENTRAL

Depth Chart Based PECOTA Projections (updated 3/23):

Code: Select all

                      W    L     RS    RA    AVG    OBP    SLG
Chicago Cubs         85   77    829   791   .275   .337   .460
Milwaukee Brewers    85   77    788   748   .266   .335   .445
St. Louis Cardinals  81   81    731   734   .260   .331   .417
Houston Astros       80   82    769   781   .260   .334   .435
Pittsburgh Pirates   76   86    752   805   .270   .331   .434
Cincinnati Reds      71   91    726   827   .259   .329   .417

Chicago Cubs (85-77)

Take the Over: Carlos Zambrano’s PERAs have been 3.80, 3.90, and 4.03 over his past three seasons; that’s why PECOTA expects this year’s actual ERA to be 3.85. Still, he’s a sufficiently unique pitcher that I think we need to give some credit for intelligent situational pitching. In particular, Zambrano seems to have the ability to be selectively wild; he’s given up a paltry .305 OBP to leadoff hitters over the course of his career.

Take the Under: Surprisingly tough to find one. I like Matt Murton, but suspect that PECOTA slightly overrates his power.

Sticking to My Guns: Alfonso Soriano’s breakout was very robust last year, featuring improvements in walk rate, flyball rate, and defense. I’ll vouch for PECOTA’s 42 HR projection with the cushion of Wrigley Field.

The Verdict: It’s easy to be skeptical when a team has had so much go wrong for it, but the projections for Zambrano and Derrek Lee look low, and it remains to be seen how much of the Cubs’ "bad luck" was in fact the result of employing a bad manager. Add two wins for 87-75; 90-win territory is not out of the question if the Cubs trade some of their excess outfield talent for bullpen help.

Milwaukee Brewers (85-77)

Take the Over: Provided that neither player kills Ned Yost first, the Brewers should gain score bonus points by using Geoff Jenkins and Kevin Mench in a strict platoon in left field.

Take the Under: Several candidates, but the differences between Corey Hart’s major league and minor league production has been pretty striking. I see plenty of scenarios where he matches PECOTA’s .288/.353/.517 projection, but that looks closer to a 75th percentile outcome than a weighted mean.

Sticking to My Guns: Ben Sheets’ 3.29 ERA projection is higher than where most other forecasting systems have him, but lower than where most laymen have him. Sounds just about right to me.

The Verdict: Just a fairly optimistic set of projections all around. Subtract two wins for 83-77.

St. Louis Cardinals (81-81)

Take the Over: I tried to explain away Albert Pujols’ temperate projection in yesterday’s chat, but didn’t manage to convince myself.

Take the Under: I like Anthony Reyes, but I don’t know that the stuff is there to produce a 3.81 ERA.

Sticking to My Guns: It’s hard to maintain a .311 BABIP when you make a lot of weak contact, have only average speed, and are about to turn 33. Sorry, David Eckstein, but you’re due for a decline to your 2003/2004 performance levels.

The Verdict: I got engaged in a protracted debate about the Cardinals last week. I remain convinced that the Cardinals’ lack of depth is a real problem, particularly when they’ve already had to play through several injuries in spring training. Still, Jim Edmonds looks ready to return to action, and Walt Jocketty has a fairly good track record in terms of adding veteran spare parts at the trade deadline. We’ll take the easy way out and call the Cardinals EVEN, for an 81-81 record.

Houston Astros (80-82)

Take the Over: Morgan Ensberg, if healthy.

Take the Under: Chris Burke’s projection is getting some extra mileage out of a flukish 2004 in New Orleans.

Sticking to My Guns: Even with all his troubles in 2006, Brad Lidge’s PERA was 3.68, and it was as high as that only because of an uncharacteristically high .335 BABIP. A rebound to a 3.17 ERA looks reasonable.

The Verdict: A ho-hum set of projections for a ho-hum team. But Clemens might come back, so +1 puts the 'Stros at 81-81.

Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86)

Take the Over: Ian Snell is a trendy pick for this spot, and PECOTA plays along by forecasting a 60-point drop from a 4.74 to a 4.17 ERA. But I like him even more after discovering that he struck out more than a batter an inning in the season’s second half.

Take the Under: He’s not a regular, but the depth charts project Nate McLouth to get more than 400 plate appearances. PECOTA way overvalued McLouth last year, perhaps because it mistook opportunistic baserunning for raw athletic talent. It seems to be doing the same this time around.

Sticking to My Guns: Freddy Sanchez’ 2006 breakout had all the telltale signs of a batting average fluke. Almost all of his hits went for singles and doubles, he didn’t change his plate approach, and he was no spring chicken at age 28. Sanchez is a good ballplayer and a smart guy, but challenging for another batting title is unlikely.

The Verdict: There’s a little bit of legitimate upside here if the starting rotation can string a couple of breakout seasons together, but the Pirates’ are extremely lacking in depth, Sanchez is banged up, and they’re likely to be sellers at the trade deadline. Take away two wins for 74-88.

Cincinnati Reds (71-91)

Take the Over: My world was shaken yesterday when I learned that Todd Coffey can hit 98 on the radar gun. That leads me to put more credence in his strikeout rate breakout in 2006. If he can consolidate that with the good command that he’s displayed before, he could provide the Reds with a much-needed solution in the bullpen.

Take the Under: Adam Dunn has been getting a lot of positive buzz this spring, but PECOTA has missed high on him often enough, and there are enough questions about his work ethic, that I don’t quite feel comfortable with his monster .267/.390/.574 projection.

Sticking to My Guns: Chris Denorfia’s stat lines are tough to read because he’s been shuffled back and forth between levels, but the skill set is genuinely pretty good. He’ll reward the Reds for any playing time that they find for him by matching his .296/.365/.459 projection.

The Verdict: PECOTA already accounts for several potential breakouts-–Dunn, Denorfia, Edwin Encarnacion-–and still only gets the Reds to 71 wins. On the other hand, the Reds stand to save themselves a lot of headaches simply by shifting Ken Griffey Jr. out of center field, so I'll go with +1, and a final record of 72-90.

[Brodie]

Lack of Depth? Didn't espn or mlb.com say we had the 3rd best bench?

-Brodie

[skmsw]

Lack of Depth? Didn't espn or mlb.com say we had the 3rd best bench?

-Brodie

By "lack of depth," he means that our everyday lineup is not very deep - one monumentally good player, two very good players, and then pretty much everyone else either unproven, or else well established as average or worse.

[planet planet]

Lack of Depth? Didn't espn or mlb.com say we had the 3rd best bench?

-Brodie

By "lack of depth," he means that our everyday lineup is not very deep - one monumentally good player, two very good players, and then pretty much everyone else either unproven, or else well established as average or worse.

We are seriously lacking depth in the true sense of the word when it comes to pitching also (my dead horse to beat).

[98navigator]

The Verdict: It’s easy to be skeptical when a team has had so much go wrong for it, but the projections for Zambrano and Derrek Lee look low, and it remains to be seen how much of the Cubs’ "bad luck" was in fact the result of employing a bad manager. Add two wins for 87-75; 90-win territory is not out of the question if the Cubs trade some of their excess outfield talent for bullpen help.

I think that the Cubs bullpen, overall, is a strength. It was last year (even with Dempster's terrible season). If Spring Training is any indication, and I have no idea if it is, Dempster will be much more effective this season. So far, the whole pitching staff has been decent. The starters are leading the offense-friendly Cactus League in ERA.

None of it will matter on April 2.

Thankfully, soon we will be able to stop reading about projections and start watching games that matter.

[Laodocus8]

I'm pessimistic by nature and I see the threads of reality in all these bleak projections for the Cardinals. The offense will probably be thoroughly mediocre and I'm not as optimistic about our pitching as any of these projection systems are. Still, I can't shake this feeling that something will cause the Cardinals to outperform the expectations. I can't believe I'm making an arguement for intagibles....

[JL21]

Lack of Depth? Didn't espn or mlb.com say we had the 3rd best bench?

-Brodie

By "lack of depth," he means that our everyday lineup is not very deep - one monumentally good player, two very good players, and then pretty much everyone else either unproven, or else well established as average or worse.

We are seriously lacking depth in the true sense of the word when it comes to pitching also (my dead horse to beat).

Maybe in the rotation, but not in the bullpen.

-Franklin
-Hancock
-Thompson
-Isringhausen
-Rincon
-Flores
-Johnson
-Springer

With:
-Falkenbourg
-Dove
-Jiminez

as options that could do a serviceable job if any of the others falter (which they shouldn't because the depth allows TLR to use them in favorable matchups).

[GatewaySnayke]

If the Cardinals can get monster seasons out of Edmonds, Rolen and Duncan, this team will be great again. Although the chances of that happening are unlikely.

At any rate, the "lack of depth" still bugs me, because this lineup is basically the same thing the Cardinals were trotting out in 2004 minus the great Rolen and Edmonds.

[Popeye_Card]

Lack of Depth? Didn't espn or mlb.com say we had the 3rd best bench?

-Brodie

By "lack of depth," he means that our everyday lineup is not very deep - one monumentally good player, two very good players, and then pretty much everyone else either unproven, or else well established as average or worse.

We are seriously lacking depth in the true sense of the word when it comes to pitching also (my dead horse to beat).

Maybe in the rotation, but not in the bullpen.

-Franklin
-Hancock
-Thompson
-Isringhausen
-Rincon
-Flores
-Johnson
-Springer

With:
-Falkenbourg
-Dove
-Jiminez

as options that could do a serviceable job if any of the others falter (which they shouldn't because the depth allows TLR to use them in favorable matchups).

I'm actually more concerned about the bullpen.

Seriously, after Izzy closing, Springer/Hancock/Thompson represent the best options for the 8th inning? These guys were all 6th/7th inning types last year.

--P--

[haltz]

I think that the Cubs bullpen, overall, is a strength.

That's what I thought too. I read somewhere, earlier this morning maybe that despite having to work a bunch to cover the suckitude that was the 4th and 5th rotation spots, they were sixth in the NL last year. Or something to that effect. Actually, now that I think about it I remember, it was this preview.

Thankfully, soon we will be able to stop reading about projections and start watching games that matter.

No joke.