Run Production Rankings for 2006 (Regular+Post Season)

StatmanCrothers · Post by **StatmanCrothers** » April 1 07, 1:14 pm

Hey, here's some rankings I just whipped up.
everybody likes rankings, right?

2006 StL Cardinals
Regular Season AND Post Season included

3*(R+RBI) - outs created

a team scoring 4.5 runs per 9 innings would have a total +/- of ZERO.

  +/-  PA   Player
----- ---- ------------------------
  398  699 Albert Pujols
  173  650 Scott Rolen
  105  470 Jim Edmonds
  101  340 Chris Duncan
   93  350 Scott Spiezio
   19  646 Juan Encarnacion
   12  159 Preston Wilson
    3  218 John Rodriguez
    3  377 So Taguchi
  -13   76 Jeff Suppan
  -20  245 Hector Luna
  -21  171 Gary Bennett
  -27   85 Jason Marquis
  -31   60 Skip Schumaker
  -51  264 Ron Belliard
  -61   92 Chris Carpenter
  -93  483 Aaron Miles
 -105  620 David Eckstein
 -108  520 Yadier Molina

Phyrkrakr · Post by **Phyrkrakr** » April 1 07, 1:53 pm

So, what does all this mean?

Asmodai · Post by **Asmodai** » April 1 07, 1:59 pm

you have to take out home runs. sorry

StatmanCrothers · Post by **StatmanCrothers** » April 1 07, 2:29 pm

Mephistopheles wrote:you have to take out home runs. sorry

no. definitely you DON'T take out homeruns.

i am the statman. it's even in my name. so it has to be true.

Seriously, here's why you don't take out HR, a contention that has pissed me off since my days as a youth reading Baseball Digest.

Lets exclude unearned runs for a moment.

For each normal run that scores, what happens, statistically?

a pitcher is charged with an EARNED RUN (ER)
a batter is awareded a RUN SCORED (R)
a batter is awarded an RBI (RBI)

So for each run scored, R+RBI = 2

Suppose in game 1, Edmonds doubles and then Rolen doubles.
Edmonds gets 1 Run and Rolen gets 1 RBI.

As far as R+RBI is concerned, a run scored generated a total of 2 (R+RBI)

Now suppose the next day Tony swaps them in the lineup and the same.
Rolen gets 1 Run and Edmonds gets 1 RBI.

As far as R+RBI is concerned, a run scored generated a total of 2 (R+RBI)

2 runs scored, 2 Runs, 2 RBIs.
Rolen 1 Run 1 RBI.
Edmonds 1 Run 1 RBI.

Now lets start over. This time in game 1 Edmonds hits a solo HR.

As far as R+RBI is concerned, a run scored generated a total of 2 (R+RBI)

In game 2 Rolen hits a solo home run.

As far as R+RBI is concerned, a run scored generated a total of 2 (R+RBI)

2 runs score, 2 Runs, 2 RBIs.
Rolen 1 Run 1 RBI
Edmonds 1 Run 1 RBI.

As far as R+RBI is concerned, a run scored generated a total of 2 (R+RBI)

In both cases, the end results were the same. There is no logical reason for subtracting the HR.

The supposed justification for R+RBI-HR is that you want to add up "the total number of runs the player had a hand in".

But each R is really only credit for half a run. Whoever got the RBI got the other half of the credit. Likewise for RBI.

So in the case of a non-HR that generates a Run or an RBI, you were only half-responsible for creating that run. When you hit a HR, you get both halves of the credit AND YOU DESERVE IT because you generated that run entirely yourself. You didn't have to knock someone in, you didn't need someone else to knock you in, you knocked yourself in.

On each run, a R and RBI are awarded. If its a HR why should this be any different?

Make sense?

Transmogrified Tiger · Post by **Transmogrified Tiger** » April 1 07, 3:40 pm

Does outs generated mean that they're credited for 2 on a GIDP?

StatmanCrothers · Post by **StatmanCrothers** » April 1 07, 4:23 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Does outs generated mean that they're credited for 2 on a GIDP?

yeah, i think i used

AB - H + SF + GIDP

why subtract SF? well, because they made an out. They also get credit for the RBI.

SH i decided not to include, since its usually not their choice to bunt, and you would be giving negative credit without balancing it out with positive credit for advancing the runner.

Giving equal credit for R and RBI is just a very coarse way of dividing the run up and it doesn't credit the guy in the middle of a rally who singles a runner to third to create a 1st and 3rd situation, or the guy who sacrifices the runner to third prior to a SF. but for a quick and dirty measure without complete play-by-play consideration its not bad for a measure of

Good (run production) per Bad (outs)

Jmodene · Post by **Jmodene** » April 1 07, 4:30 pm

FWIW, the rulesmakers seem to agree with you on SH, Statman (BTW, welcome back!) as a batter is *not* charged with a plate appearance on a SH.

I guess they figured that SH happens.

StatmanCrothers · Post by **StatmanCrothers** » April 1 07, 4:32 pm

Jmodene wrote:FWIW, the rulesmakers seem to agree with you on SH, Statman (BTW, welcome back!) as a batter is *not* charged with a plate appearance on a SH.

I guess they figured that SH happens.

Good one Jmo!