Dan, splitting it was a great idea. So here it is....
As for me? I think he can contribute. I'm just becoming more and more convinced that there might be something wrong with his arm. Think about it....
-command is spotty, when in the minors it had been his strongsuit
-velocity is down
-history of arm woes
I don't know. It's early, so it should play itself out. I'm encouraged by the fact that he's recovered some (but not all) of his velocity from the end of last year. He still has a dynamite change-up and I've been impressed with how his breaking ball has come along in the last few years.
I really do believe that he can contribute. I'm just leery that he's going to live up to the promise of a year ago, and that's not something I would've admitted late last season.
Red flags went up in my mind with all the press out of Spring Training focusing on him talking about how he wanted to "Regain his velocity". It told me that he's still obsessed or at least concerned with throwing the ball as fast as he used to rather than worry about control or embracing the two-seamer.
The walks RC21 mentioned is another thing. I was pretty concerned by his multiple HBPs last year in multiple games. His inability to consistently finish hitters and consistently get past the 5th or 6th inning bothers me, and of course his health history. I've said it before and I'll say it again, but everytime I hear how similar his mechanics are to Prior, it scares me.
Geez, shouldn't we at least wait beyond one start (a start in which he allowed only one walk, for that matter) before assuming he's bound to be dead in the water? He had a bad year last year, but that was last year and it was his rookie year.
Cronos69 wrote:Red flags went up in my mind with all the press out of Spring Training focusing on him talking about how he wanted to "Regain his velocity". It told me that he's still obsessed or at least concerned with throwing the ball as fast as he used to rather than worry about control or embracing the two-seamer.
I agree with your second paragraph but I think this is silly. The difference between a 90 MPH fastball and a 96 MPH fastball is pretty massive. Reyes with an extra six MPH, especially when his out pitch is a nasty change-up, is a much better pitcher. It's a big deal and he should rightly be concerned it.
Besides, why are these things mutually exclusive? Reyes used to throw 94-96 and his control was much better then than it is now.
Cronos69 wrote:Red flags went up in my mind with all the press out of Spring Training focusing on him talking about how he wanted to "Regain his velocity". It told me that he's still obsessed or at least concerned with throwing the ball as fast as he used to rather than worry about control or embracing the two-seamer.
I agree with your second paragraph but I think this is silly. The difference between a 90 MPH fastball and a 96 MPH fastball is pretty massive. Reyes with an extra six MPH, especially when his out pitch is a nasty change-up, is a much better pitcher. It's a big deal and he should rightly be concerned it.
Besides, why are these things mutually exclusive? Reyes used to throw 94-96 and his control was much better then than it is now.
This seems to be in conflict with your previous post. If he should rightly be concerned about it, shouldn't we as well?
And your 2nd point is also mine in my original post, about whether or not there might be an arm injury there. I DON'T think they're mutually exclusive at all.
RC21 wrote:This seems to be in conflict with your previous post. If he should rightly be concerned about it, shouldn't we as well?
And your 2nd point is also mine in my original post, about whether or not there might be an arm injury there. I DON'T think they're mutually exclusive at all.
I'm not saying we shouldn't be concerned about Reyes - I just think that your deliberate omission of his name, flat-out implying that there is no "legit reason for hope" for Reyes, is much too pessimistic.
I'm not sure what Reyes' control problem is, but this isn't an Ankiel thing. I don't know that he's injured, but I'm pretty sure his mechanics are out of whack. I wish that guy over on BTF who breaks down mechanics would take a look at him. He did comment passingly on him in his analysis of Rich Harden, when a Cardinal fan brought his name up:
Reyes is a guy I've soured on because he doesn't seem to drive as well as I like pitchers to do with their lower bodies. He is kinda old-school Tom House teachings, and well, with his awesome arm mechanics, there is SO much more there to unlock (in terms of velocity).
Reyes was mostly outstanding in spring training, and solid in his first start.
I guess I don't understand all of the fuss. Maybe people were duped into thinking that he was the future ace of the staff, but his upside has typically been that of a decent #2 or good #3. I don't think that's changed.
The Third Man wrote:I'm not saying we shouldn't be concerned about Reyes - I just think that your deliberate omission of his name, flat-out implying that there is no "legit reason for hope" for Reyes, is much too pessimistic.
I think your'e reading about 10 times too much into what I said.
