USS Mariner: MLB Trade Value for 2007: Player Rankings

[haltz]

About a year and a half ago, I did a post on who has the most trade value in the major leagues, blatently stealing off an idea from Bill Simmons of a column he’s been doing for a while on NBA players. It was pretty popular, so last summer, I did something similar for just the AL West.

Since it’s been a while and people keep asking, plus the fact that the M’s have been rained out yet again, I’ve now updated the MLB Trade Value list for how I think things stack up today. Once again, let’s borrow from Simmons’ rules, slightly modified to fit baseball.

A. Salaries matter. Would you rather pay David Wright $55 million for the next six years or Lance Berkman $85 million over the same period?

B. Age matters. Would you rather have Roy Halladay for the next five seasons or Scott Kazmir for the next 12?

C. Pretend the league passed the following rule: For 24 hours, any player can be traded straight up for any other player without budget ramifications. So if Team A tells Team B, “We’ll trade you Player X for Player Y straight up,” would Team B make the deal or not?

D. Concentrate on degrees. For instance, neither the Mariners nor Cardinals would pull the trigger on an Pujols-Hernandez trade. But at the very least, the Cardinals say, “Wow, Felix Hernandez is available?” while the Mariners would say, “There’s no way we’re trading Felix, but Albert Pujols…” That counts in the big scheme of things.

E. Make the list in reverse order (Nos. 40 to 1). So if Ryan Howard comes in at No. 14, players 1 through 13 are all players about whom Philadelphia would probably say, “We hate giving up Howard, but there’s no way we can pass up that deal.” And they wouldn’t trade him for any player listed between Nos. 15 and 40.

So, now that we have those issues out of the way, try to remember that this whole post is for fun. Try not to get all bent out of shape if you think I have Grady Sizemore two slots too low or Nick Markakis ten spots too high. It’s a water cooler discussion post. Take it as such. So, without further ado:

Code: Select all

Rank 	Name 	         Pos 	Team
1 	 Felix Hernandez 	RHP 	Seattle
2 	 Albert Pujols 	   1B 	St. Louis
3 	 Miguel Cabrera 	  3B 	Florida
4 	 Jose Reyes 	      SS 	New York Mets
5 	 Joe Mauer 	        C 	Minnesota Twins
6 	 Grady Sizemore 	  CF 	Cleveland
7 	 Johan Santana 	  LHP 	Minnesota
8 	 Brian McCann 	     C 	Atlanta
9 	 Delmon Young 	    RF 	Tampa Bay
10 	David Wright 	    3B 	New York Mets
11 	Scott Kazmir 	   LHP 	Tampa Bay
12 	Chase Utley 	     2B 	Philadelphia
13 	Brandon Webb 	   RHP 	Arizona
14 	Ryan Howard 	     1B 	Philadelphia
15 	Ben Sheets 	     RHP 	Milwaukee
16 	Jeremy Bonderman	RHP 	Detroit
17 	Travis Hafner 	   DH 	Cleveland
18 	Alex Gordon 	     3B 	Kansas City
19 	John Lackey 	    RHP 	Anaheim
20 	Daisuke Matsuzaka  RHP 	Boston
21 	Howie Kendrick 	  2B 	Anaheim
22 	Carl Crawford 	   LF 	Tampa Bay
23 	Philip Hughes 	  RHP 	New York Yankees
24 	Hanley Ramirez 	  SS 	Florida
25 	Roy Halladay 	   RHP 	Toronto 
26 	Matt Cain 	      RHP 	San Francisco
27 	Nick Markakis 	   RF 	Baltimore
28 	Brett Myers 	    RHP 	Philadelphia
29 	Ryan Zimmerman 	  3B 	Washington
30 	Justin Verlander   RHP 	Detroit
31 	Prince Fielder 	  1B 	Milwaukee
32 	Jake Peavy 	     RHP 	San Diego
33 	Rickie Weeks 	    2B 	Milwaukee
34 	Jeff Francoeur 	  RF 	Atlanta
35 	Cole Hamels 	    LHP 	Philadelphia
36 	Robinson Cano 	   2B 	New York Yankees
37 	Jason Bay 	       LF 	Pittsburgh
38 	Lance Berkman 	   1B 	Houston
39 	Erik Bedard 	    LHP 	Baltimore
40 	Dan Haren 	      RHP 	Oakland

Okay, so, there’s the list. On to the notes.

You can argue where Felix ranks among the best pitchers in the game, considering he’s been spectacular in spurts before and hasn’t shown the consistency required of a true ace. But you can’t argue that he’s making $400,000 this year and is under club control through 2011. There’s still the problem of attrition with young pitchers and the risk is high, but the reward is worth it. Felix is the most valuable property in the game.

I went back and forth on Cabrera and Pujols for the #2 spot. In the end, the fact that Pujols is signed through 2010 with an option for 2011 won me over. With Cabrera, you’re getting a great young player that could walk away after 2009, and with the inflating market, won’t be cheap even if you manage to get him under contract. That hurts his value enough to push him down to the #3 spot, even though he may outhit Pujols this year.

Reyes, Sizemore, and Mauer are basically interchangable. All three play up-the-middle defensive spots, and all are legitimate MVP candidates before they turn 25. I give the slight edge to Reyes because he has the fewest questions about his ability to remain at his position and he’s the most athletically gifted of the three, but you don’t have to argue very long for either of the other two before I shurg and say “okay”.

I might have Johan too high at #7, since he’s only under contract for another two years. But he’s been so consistently unbelievable that almost any team in baseball is a contender by adding Johan to the front of their rotation, and he’s been willing to discuss an extension with the Twins, so theoretically you could keep him off the open market by getting a deal done soon.

Despite the fact that he’s all the way at #14, I might actually be overrating Ryan Howard. He’s already 27, and his body suggests he won’t age gracefully. 2006 will go down as his career year, and if he regresses too far offensively, then he’s just a good player instead of a great one. However, since he’s heading into just his third year, he’s still very cheap, so his contract pushes him up the list.

I’m going to get a lot of grief for having Hanley Ramirez 20 spots below Jose Reyes, but I’m not sold on Hanley repeating his 2006 year on a consistent basis. I’m also still not sold on his defense. But he’s cheap and still clearly one of the best shortstops in the league, so 24 is as low as I could put him.

Nick Markakis at #27 is something of a hunch pick, but I love his swing, he’s a pretty good defensive player as well, and he’s heading into his second season in the majors, meaning he makes nothing. That’s a valuable asset, and if he takes the step forward that he’s capable of, he could easily crack the top ten next year.

If there’s one guy who could make me look really bad for having him way too low, its Cole Hamels. If he stays healthy this year and pitches up to his talent level, he’s a top five guy. He’s that good.

Guys who just missed the cut: Francisco Liriano, Justin Morneau, Matt Holliday, Adam Loewen, and Scott Olsen.

[jdk82]

The other day was the first time I saw Felix Hernandex pitch, that guy is the real deal and he is what? 21.
Dan Haren at 40 never surprised there.

[G. Keenan]

Nice list. I agree with him that Howard is probably too high.

That fact that Pujols has a $100 million contract and is so tradeable is a testament to his greatness. I don't think there's a team in baseball that wouldn't take all of that salary given the chance, Royals and Rays included.

[taxman]

1. Sheets at 15, but Oswalt not ranked? Which one of them has an injury history?

2. Delmon Young at 9 is so far overrated I don't know where to begin. Crawford is much more proven and is locked into a contract that is WAY below market.

3. Francouer has no business on this list.

4. Good call on Lackey, though - very underrated.

[Fan_In_NY]

Call me a hater, but I don't think Bonderman has any reason to be on this list, or at least #16. He isnt particually cheap having signed a 4 year $38M deal this past offseason (pays him 4.5,8.5,12.5,12.5) and I dont think is that exceptional. Has a career ERA+ of 93, with a high being last year at 111. Good but not great. I know he is only 24, but to be that high on the list (and at that money) you would think the player should have either had an ERA+ of 120+ or a very very high upside. I just dont think Bonderman will be able to truely make the jump.

[The Third Man]

Bonderman DOES have upside. He was putting up those mediocre ERA+ numbers when most guys would still have been in the minors.

[ToughGuy_BlueShirt]

I don't want to sound like a homer here. I remember someone on ESPN a while ago, he mentioned that with Wainwright's recent success, age and what he is making(financially) he's almost untouchable. Not saying he should be on this list but, It sounds exactly what you were talking about. I think what would hold you back is that he has only done it for 1 year and in limited duty. But, if I was the A's and you would trade me AW for Haren, I think I would do it, so I guess he would be on my list.



Cool post by the way.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't want to sound like a homer here. I remember someone on ESPN a while ago, he mentioned that with Wainwright's recent success, age and what he is making(financially) he's almost untouchable. Not saying he should be on this list but, It sounds exactly what you were talking about. I think what would hold you back is that he has only done it for 1 year and in limited duty. But, if I was the A's and you would trade me AW for Haren, I think I would do it, so I guess he would be on my list.

I can't agree. Haren's got 2 years of that performance starting, and Wainwright has yet to show he's capable of those numbers as a starter.

I was about to question Kendrick's inclusion on the list, then saw how insane his minor league numbers are, wow. One person I will question is Jeff Francoeur. He shouldn't be anywhere near this list.

[JL21]

Call me a hater, but I don't think Bonderman has any reason to be on this list, or at least #16. He isnt particually cheap having signed a 4 year $38M deal this past offseason (pays him 4.5,8.5,12.5,12.5) and I dont think is that exceptional. Has a career ERA+ of 93, with a high being last year at 111. Good but not great. I know he is only 24, but to be that high on the list (and at that money) you would think the player should have either had an ERA+ of 120+ or a very very high upside. I just dont think Bonderman will be able to truely make the jump.

Maybe he's too high, I don't know, but....

That money isn't that bad at all. Bonderman's got an electric arm. Most guys making that kind of money have Weaver/Soup arms.

He hasn't had any significant arm problems, his K/BB has improved each year he's been in the league (to a very good 3.16 last year), his HR/9 has decreased each year he's been in the league, his ERA keeps going down, and he struck out over 8 guys per 9 IP last year.

And if you don't like all those purty numbers going in the right direction, just watch him pitch. He's got a very, very good arm.

I think he's on the verge of a big breakout. It's easy to forget that while he was running up those sub-100 ERA+'s early in his career, he was 20-22 years old. I think you're looking at a young Jason Schmidt in terms of overall quality.

[JL21]

One person I will question is Jeff Francoeur. He shouldn't be anywhere near this list.

Why? He's an extremely talented and young guy.

2 years ago, someone would've said the same thing about José Reyes for the same reasons. And they'd look like fools today.