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My anecdotal impression is that minor league stats do not serve as such a reliable indicator when it comes to predicting the ability to hit home runs in the majors. Decent hitters can suddenly become power hitters around the age of 25 once their bodies mature.

I dug up several examples of guys who didn't show much HR power in the minors, but became notable power hitters by age 25.

Jim Edmonds: 30 HR in 1545 MiLB AB; Hit 5 HR in 289 ML AB at age 24 before hitting 33 in 558 AB at age 25.

Shawn Green: 18 HR in 1210 MiLB AB; first 30+ HR season at age 25.

Chipper Jones: 42HR in 1695 MiLB.

Nomar: 27 HR in 872 MiLB AB; Hit 30 HR at age 24, 35 at age 25.

Bagwell: 6HR in 731 MiLB AB; Hit 20 HR at age 25, 39 HR at age 26.

Raul Mondesi: 39HR in 1421 MILB; Seasons of 26, 24, 30, 30, 33 HR starting at age 24.

And conversely, there are a large number of guys who hit for good power in the minors who were never able to translate that power to the major leagues.

Good stuff, and helpful in thinking about the Duncan phenomenon. Thanks, HungaryJack.

(sidenote: however, I can't help but think about the era that all of these previously low-HR guys came up. Early to mid 90's. Let's just say, that era lends itself to a lot of speculation when it comes to power surges)

Shawn Green: 18 HR in 120 MiLB AB

I'm assuming this is a typo, because that's 75 homers per 500 at-bats...

The Third Man wrote:

Shawn Green: 18 HR in 120 MiLB AB

I'm assuming this is a typo, because that's 75 homers per 500 at-bats...

18 HR in 1210 AB

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... reen.shtml

Good stuff, HJ! Thanks for sharing.

heyzeus wrote:Good stuff, and helpful in thinking about the Duncan phenomenon. Thanks, HungaryJack.

(sidenote: however, I can't help but think about the era that all of these previously low-HR guys came up. Early to mid 90's. Let's just say, that era lends itself to a lot of speculation when it comes to power surges)

I see the connection, but i still think Dunc doesnt fit with those hitters you mention. Dunc is just an anomoly.

All of those hitters you mention were outstanding hitters at the minor league level, and yes they all developed power, it does seem as though

You can explain them getting more HR as they hit the balls further-doubles get translated into HR
this works for Nomar and Chipper. Their SLG was pretty consistent (Nomar's went down in MLB)

But I also think that leaves out that all of those hitters you mention were _much_ better hitters than duncan was.

Jimmy was putting up 800+ ops seasons- his seasons were much stronger that Duncs
and it took him 2 years of exposure to hit ML pitching

Green was the same way
he tore up AAA hitting when he was 21
-except that he took more years of hitting at the ML level to develop power

Chipper- raked in the minor leagues and took a one year to develop HR power. Though his slugging was pretty much the same from minor to his first few years

Nomar- 700 SLG in AAA WOW

Bagwell- very good hitter developed more power


I think it is more complex than saying decent hitters can sometimes develop power around age 25.

all of those hitters mentioned were better than decent hitters, and all share the ability of being much, much better hitters at a younger age than duncan was.

Now does that mean that Duncan wont sustain it? No
or that it is possible tht duncan just figured it out-yup, but i think the connection between the players cited and duncan is weak at best.


I bet if someone smarter than I looked into the numbers there would be some correlation that would be developed that could account for this.

One of the issues I came across in looking at the data is the relative weighting of OPS in the minors. Is an .900 OPS in the minors as impressive as an .900 OPS in MLB? It would be helpful to examine OPS+ by league and level. I wish we had the data. The comparisons would hold more water.

While Dunc was not an accomplished hitter in the minors, he did post a .827 OPS at AAA at age 24 after an .866 at AA at age 23. He really made a quantum leap from his performance before age 23, and it seems he has made another quantum leap at age 25.

By all indications Baby Dunc is a "late" bloomer, but it's not like he didn't give some indication a few years ago that he might become a power hitter. I guess the only question is how long the blossoms will last.

Hungary Jack wrote:One of the issues I came across in looking at the data is the relative weighting of OPS in the minors. Is an .900 OPS in the minors as impressive as an .900 OPS in MLB? It would be helpful to examine OPS+ by league and level. I wish we had the data.

Dan Szymborski did something like that here. The park is also very important. I suspect the Cardinals are inclined to let their hitting prospects spend little/no time at A+ in part because an 800 OPS at Palm Beach is basically the same as an 800 OPS at Springfield.

It isn't just players making the transition from minors to majors who experience power boosts. Steve Finley's career high in homers was 11 until he hit 30 in is age-31 season (five years of experience). Luis Gonzalez and, er, Barry Bonds experienced significant late boosts as well. OTOH after a couple of decent power years in his 20s, Lou Brock's power was sapped in his 30s.

greenback44 wrote:

Hungary Jack wrote:One of the issues I came across in looking at the data is the relative weighting of OPS in the minors. Is an .900 OPS in the minors as impressive as an .900 OPS in MLB? It would be helpful to examine OPS+ by league and level. I wish we had the data.

Dan Szymborski did something like that here. The park is also very important. I suspect the Cardinals are inclined to let their hitting prospects spend little/no time at A+ in part because an 800 OPS at Palm Beach is basically the same as an 800 OPS at Springfield.

It isn't just players making the transition from minors to majors who experience power boosts. Steve Finley's career high in homers was 11 until he hit 30 in is age-31 season (five years of experience). Luis Gonzalez and, er, Barry Bonds experienced significant late boosts as well. OTOH after a couple of decent power years in his 20s, Lou Brock's power was sapped in his 30s.

Thanks for the reference. Good stuff.

It seems that for the majority of ballplayers, the peak years are ages 25-30. A lot of guys decline beyond 30, while the relative few that are built to last continue on.

It's hard to judge the Finley's and Gonzo's of the world during the steroid era. I am inclined not to give them the benefit of the doubt.