End of April Observations...

[GatewaySnayke]

1. The Brewers are Fo Rilla

My biggest concern of the Brewers was their offense, but Fielder is knocking the crap out of the ball. I'm not saying that this is a .640 team all the way, but they look good enough to win 88 games. And I don't know what happened to Jeff Suppan, but 1.5 BB/9? That's insane.

2. What happened to David Wright

It's a good thing Wright has improved his walk rate from 9% to 15% because otherwise he would be extremely worthless right now. He has just five extra base hits, and before anyone thinks it's just a run of bad luck and this will go away, he only had six home runs in the second half of last season and went from 'elite' to 'very good.' He has one home run in his last 44 home games. It doesn't really make sense why he's suddenly turned into Aaron Miles with a nifty 16 walks in one month. I have no predictive models that can take a guess that Wright will improve, but a quick check at his BABIP shows that he's at .349!

3. Barry Bonds found his cream and--sorry, his flaxseed oil

Fifty-eight at-bats or not, Barry Bonds is playing like he used to when he just got really good without the aide of steroids, because we all know players hit their peak seasons past 35. Well, apparently he's hitting another peak at 42, because his numbers reflect his run from 01-04.

So, either he went down to Georgia and struck up a deal with the devil, he found an old bottle of Extra Strength Tyenol and Flaxseed in his cabinet or he's defying human nature by being the most productive player in the league at a time when men his age who have bad knees and elbows are usually just struggling to get out of bed.

[Radbird]

So do you think Bonds will slow down his pace just enough to hit 755 &/or 756 at Busch July 6-8?

[Leeyat]

So do you think Bonds will slow down his pace just enough to hit 755 &/or 756 at Busch July 6-8?

Don't cheer for him, he sucks!

[Secret Weapon]

2. What happened to David Wright

homerun derby curse

[Balltilyafall4]

1. The Brewers are Fo Rilla

My biggest concern of the Brewers was their offense, but Fielder is knocking the crap out of the ball. I'm not saying that this is a .640 team all the way, but they look good enough to win 88 games. And I don't know what happened to Jeff Suppan, but 1.5 BB/9? That's insane.

I don't think they are..

Their offense (and yea, I know how bad ours is) isn't that great (J.J. Hardy has 6 HR's...c'mon now?)

Their bullpen is their biggest strength, but only at the back end (Wise, Shouse, Dessens, Villenueva are all suspect)...

If Sheets can stay healthy they have a solid rotation, but that's a big IF, and if he goes down for an extended period...I don't see them making the playoffs..

[Phyrkrakr]

1. The Brewers are Fo Rilla

My biggest concern of the Brewers was their offense, but Fielder is knocking the crap out of the ball. I'm not saying that this is a .640 team all the way, but they look good enough to win 88 games. And I don't know what happened to Jeff Suppan, but 1.5 BB/9? That's insane.

I don't think they are..

Their offense (and yea, I know how bad ours is) isn't that great (J.J. Hardy has 6 HR's...c'mon now?)

Their bullpen is their biggest strength, but only at the back end (Wise, Shouse, Dessens, Villenueva are all suspect)...

If Sheets can stay healthy they have a solid rotation, but that's a big IF, and if he goes down for an extended period...I don't see them making the playoffs..

I don't know how much of their success so far is based on fluke offense right now. They've gotten good starts up and down the rotation, with Sheets being the worst pitcher so far, instead of the ace. As we all know, Suppan can have Jekyll and Hyde season halfs, but so far, he's looked really strong. Capuano is also a good starter, and Dave Bush has surprised everyone by being effective. If Sheets is healthy, that rotation can carry an anemic offense.

Right now, the offense has helped maintain the balance and I believe that they can maintain this sort of balance throughout the season. There aren't that many guys hitting above their level right now. Really, Mench, Jenkins, and Estrada are the only ones hitting out of their league, and Estrada not by much. Even with a slight regression of that outfield platoon, the offense seems to be clicking.

The only thing I'd worry about if I were a Brewers fan is injury. There's plenty of history on that team, as was proven last year. Capuano, Sheets (obviously), Hardy, and others have had injury problems before, but the thing about the new Brewers is they have veterans who can step into those roles and perform them effectively. Gabe Gross, Tony Gwynn Jr, Corey Hart, Counsell/Weeks, etc, are all good backups who will continue to be effective in backup roles.

Yeah, I'd be worried about this team as a Cards fan.

[Asmodai]

My biggest concern of the Brewers was their offense, but Fielder is knocking the crap out of the ball. I'm not saying that this is a .640 team all the way, but they look good enough to win 88 games. And I don't know what happened to Jeff Suppan, but 1.5 BB/9? That's insane.

They're not. It's a mirage. There are SERIOUS issues with the health of Ben Sheets. He says he's not hurt, but something's not right with him right now. With today's 7-1 win they finally have scored more runs than they've allowed but it is 117 to 114, not a big difference. Not to single out another team in the division, but one team has scored just five runs fewer and allowed 25 fewer.

One quick lok at their offense and you see that just about every starter is hitting at or above their potential save Bill Hall. Most of them are considerably above their ceiling. Jenkins and Mench aren't hitting over .330. On the pitching side Dave Bush is a train wreck. Suppan's overachieving considerably and so is Chris Capuano, and so is Claudio Vargas.

They're simply hot and it's early enough in the season for a few weeks of everything clicking let's you get a nice record. They're not much more than an average team at best to me right now.

[Phyrkrakr]

One quick lok at their offense and you see that just about every starter is hitting at or above their potential save Bill Hall. Most of them are considerably above their ceiling. Jenkins and Mench aren't hitting over .330. On the pitching side Dave Bush is a train wreck. Suppan's overachieving considerably and so is Chris Capuano, and so is Claudio Vargas.

See, I don't think that's the case. Mench and Jenkins, yeah, that's going to come back down. But JJ Hardy is only 24 and has always been touted as a good every day shortstop. Most people thought he was going to break out last year, but his season was cut short by injury. I think he can continue to hit in the .270-.280 range, only slightly below where he is now. Johnny Estrada has been a .300 hitter before in his career, and it's not inconceivable that he could keep that up. Now, for an entire season, that might be asking a lot, but Damian Miller isn't hitting so horribly that putting him in suddenly drops that offense down a lot. Bill Hall, like you pointed out, is bound to improve. I just don't see this offense getting a whole lot worse, especially when the plan was all along to platoon Mench and Jenkins. When one of them returns to earth, the other will be there to pick up the slack. And Corey Hart is no slouch, either.

As far as pitching, Suppan can put together this kind of year, we just hoped he wouldn't do it against us. He seems to be the kind of Duncan project who, once he's fixed, will stay fixed, at least for a while. Vargas is pitching above his level, but he was only projected as a five in that rotation anyway. They've gotten good performances from three guys in that rotation, and it's not inconceivable that that will be enough in this division. If they can continue to stay hot in May, that might be enough momentum to roll through this division, especially considering that they're the only team above .500 right now.

[Asmodai]

But JJ Hardy is only 24 and has always been touted as a good every day shortstop. Most people thought he was going to break out last year, but his season was cut short by injury. I think he can continue to hit in the .270-.280 range, only slightly below where he is now.

He isnt going to slug anywhere near the .520 he's at right now. There really isn't anyone besides Hall to pick up the slack. Plain and simple, the team is overachieving.

[greenback44]

But JJ Hardy is only 24 and has always been touted as a good every day shortstop. Most people thought he was going to break out last year, but his season was cut short by injury. I think he can continue to hit in the .270-.280 range, only slightly below where he is now.

He isnt going to slug anywhere near the .520 he's at right now. There really isn't anyone besides Hall to pick up the slack. Plain and simple, the team is overachieving.

Unless the gambler's fallacy kicks in though, this little bit of overachievement, combined with underachievement of our two teams, may be all they need to win the division.