Who will win the NLC?

Post by **Michael** » May 1 07, 10:05 am

Well, you now have one month of data...

Central Division
Team           W   L   WL%  GB
Milwkee  MIL  16   9  .640  --  
Pittsbgh PIT  12  12  .500  3.5
Cincnnti CIN  12  13  .480  4.0
ChicagoC CHC  10  14  .417  5.5
Houston  HOU  10  14  .417  5.5
St.Louis STL  10  14  .417  5.5

omaha_red · Post by **omaha_red** » May 1 07, 10:11 am

i voted for the cubs.

Post by **Michael** » May 1 07, 10:14 am

Can you believe we're already 5.5 back? I took the Brewers however I think they will cool off. Here are the BP adjusted standings:

Code: Select all

Team             W    L       RS   RA  W1   L1     EQR EQRA  W2   L2    AEQR AEQRA W3   L3      D1    D2    D3
Cubs             10.  14.    112   91 14.3  9.7    109   90 14.0 10.0    117   93 14.5  9.5    -4.3  -4.0  -4.5
Brewers          16.   9.    117  114 12.8 12.2    124  106 14.2 10.8    125  108 14.2 10.8     3.2   1.8   1.8
Reds             12.  13.    109  109 12.5 12.5    102   95 13.2 11.8    103  101 12.8 12.2    -0.5  -1.2  -0.8
Cardinals        10.  14.     82  111  8.8 15.2     84   94 10.9 13.1     90   96 11.4 12.6     1.2  -0.9  -1.4
Astros           10.  14.     99  104 11.5 12.5     97  104 11.3 12.7     96  106 10.9 13.1    -1.5  -1.3  -0.9
Pirates          12.  12.     86  106  9.8 14.2     82  109  8.9 15.1     89  118  9.0 15.0     2.2   3.1   3.0

Link

greenback44 · Post by **greenback44** » May 1 07, 10:16 am

Assuming our Maker has a book with "true talent" levels in it, I'd guess that book shows the Cardinals as the best team in the NLC. I'd also guess that the difference isn't enough to overcome the 5.5 game head start the Cardinals have given the Brewers down here on Earth.

jim · Post by **jim** » May 1 07, 10:19 am

I think if you told me April 1 that the Brewers would be 5.5 ahead of the Cards and Cubs on May 1, I would have taken the Brewers. That's not even factoring in the Carp factor.

So the Brewers are my choice.

Balltilyafall4 · Post by **Balltilyafall4** » May 1 07, 10:29 am

I'm not ready to give up on the boys yet..

If we get a healthy Carp back here in a week or two and Looper continues to pitch like he has, that's a pretty good 1-2..

Bring Mulder back into the fold...ya got a decent rotation..

And this offense is not going to continue to be THIS bad...they aren't great, but they aren't THIS bad

stlmark · Post by **stlmark** » May 1 07, 10:46 am

I voted for the Brewers. I hope I'm wrong.

ghostrunner · Post by **ghostrunner** » May 1 07, 10:53 am

I think we'll eke it out. The hitters are coming around. The pitchers are doing their swoon right now. Things will level off, and if we're close I think Walt will deal for a significant bat come mid-season.

Transmogrified Tiger · Post by **Transmogrified Tiger** » May 1 07, 10:56 am

Freaking Cubs. Play well enough to be 2 games in front of everybody, and instead find yourselves 5.5 back because you can't win a close game to save your lives. Color me irritated.

PHILLYCARD · Post by **PHILLYCARD** » May 1 07, 10:59 am

Hey, we almost blew a 7 game lead with 2 weeks to play. So I think a 5.5 game lead with over 5 months to go is reasonable for the Brew Crew to blow...