Hope for Wells/Waino/Reyes?

maddash · Post by **maddash** » May 3 07, 9:50 am

Disclaimer: this is my first attempt at some number crunching and I must admit that I could very well be talking out of my behind. Please, feel open to criticize, as I'm using this thread as a learning process for myself.

Collectively, those three guys have given us a record of 2-12 and an ERA somewhere around 5.75

But have they really been that bad? The record itself can mostly be explained away by our pitiful offense, but that ERA is tougher to reckon with. There it is staring right back at us, a collective ERA nearing 6.00 - that's damn ugly... but I also don't think it truly represents how those three guys are pitching.

I (as I'm sure others have) started looking into the FIP numbers for our staff and found some surprising results. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching and tries to "measure a pitcher's effectiveness based only on plays that do not involve fielders" * The formula itself it pretty simple:

As you can see, it uses events that are solely (or 99.9% solely) in the pitcher's control - Home Runs, Walks, and Strike Outs. The 3.20 (or something very close to that number) is added to make the resulting number look like an ERA.

So, let's take a look at our three guys-

Reyes:
5.46 ERA
3.95 FIP
-1.52 difference

Wells:
5.65 ERA
4.66 FIP
-0.99 difference

Wainwright:
6.14 ERA
4.66 FIP
-1.48 difference

It's still early, and the numbers suffer from small sample size, but that's pretty dramatic if you ask me. Clearly the Cardinals are moving towards a more "strike out friendly" staff, so that's going to effect their FIPS, but I think a difference of at least 1 "run" per starter is something we can't ignore. So what's causing that difference? Bad luck, poor defense, a style of pitching prone to a high difference? My intuition is all three, but let's look a little closer.

The DER (Defense Efficiency Ratio. The percent of times a batted ball is turned into an out by the teams’ fielders, not including home runs.) for our team is at .709, which is above league average. The DER for games started by Reyes and Wells is actually above team average, so it appears they're getting our standard defense (or better) when they take the mound. Wainwright, on the other hand, gets a DER of .636. Well below team average and something I would classify as poor defense.

What does this mean? It appears to me that Wainwright has been both unlucky and he's been getting a defense that is below team standards. Commonsense would say that, over time, that defense will come back to at least average and Waino will start getting the outs he's been missing so far. For Wells and Reyes, they have been getting our normal defense, so I would classify their struggles as bad luck - if the defense continues to play as it has, and they pitch like they have been, there ERA should start to come down and get closer to their FIP. Of course, there are other issues: Waino's WHIP is surprisingly high, and Looper (who we haven't even talked about) has a very high LD% that will probably come back to haunt him. But for now, I believe there's hope yet for Wells/Waino/Reyes to be strong 2007 starters.

Post by **heyzeus** » May 3 07, 9:57 am

this is why I love GRB.

I think Reyes' WHIP trends of late also indicate improvement that is not reflected in outcomes.

This is mainly because the main factor outside of a pitcher's control is run support. If we are generating less than 3 runs in the majority of our games, we're going to lose in the majority of outcomes.

Transmogrified Tiger · Post by **Transmogrified Tiger** » May 3 07, 9:59 am

In the case of Wells, it's the trends that are the most concerning.

First 3 starts: 20 IP, 18/7 K/BB, 0.90 WHIP
Last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 7/8 K/BB, 1.74 WHIP

With Wainwright, the K/BB hasn't been there the entire season. Nobody's going to have a whole lot of success walking 3+ guys every outing and only striking out 3-4.

With Reyes, there's definitely some hope for improvement, although for the second year in a row he's giving up a pretty staggering IsoP. What could be the reason for that, is it just how his stuff is(high risk, high reward)?

Dillagii · Post by **Dillagii** » May 3 07, 10:00 am

Alright, what's IsoP?

Transmogrified Tiger · Post by **Transmogrified Tiger** » May 3 07, 10:02 am

DiLLaGii wrote:Alright, what's IsoP?

Isolated Power. IsoP = SLG - AVG

Hungary Jack · Post by **Hungary Jack** » May 3 07, 10:05 am

Nice work Mr. Slaughter-phile.

It's pretty clear that these starters really don't deserve to be saddled with a collective 2-12 record. They could sue for non-support, and any decent defendant counsel would setttle out of court (The court now calls Mr. Hal McRae to the stand...).

When your margin of error is thin, little mistakes and pieces of bad luck become catastrophes, as we are quickly finding out. Right now, this trio isn't good enough to overcome these things, which I think is the hallmark of a very good pitcher or stopper.

I am starting to think of Kip Wells in the same vein as Jose DeLeon. DeLeon had geat stuff. We all saw it. He put together a fabulous 16-12 year with a 119 ERA+ and 201K in 244 IP in 1989. But career-wise he was a loser, thanks largely to a 2-19 campaign with Bucs, and a 7-19 misery tour with the Cards in 1990.

Like Wells, The Lion had some issues with control, but he could be utterly nasty. But never put it all together, and he seemed to have a penchant for losing games that could be win because he couldn't make the pitch he needed to, or he was victimized by bad support.

I hope Wells isn't our 2007 version of DeLeon. But I am starting to wonder.

maddash · Post by **maddash** » May 3 07, 10:17 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:In the case of Wells, it's the trends that are the most concerning.

First 3 starts: 20 IP, 18/7 K/BB, 0.90 WHIP
Last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 7/8 K/BB, 1.74 WHIP

With Wainwright, the K/BB hasn't been there the entire season. Nobody's going to have a whole lot of success walking 3+ guys every outing and only striking out 3-4.

With Reyes, there's definitely some hope for improvement, although for the second year in a row he's giving up a pretty staggering IsoP. What could be the reason for that, is it just how his stuff is(high risk, high reward)?

I agree. I think out of the bunch Reyes shows the most potential to improve. Not sure the reason behind the high ISO though.

I think Wainwright's success lives and dies with his curve. He's had problems locating it, and when he does he's had problems with getting the call.

jim · Post by **jim** » May 3 07, 10:17 am

Good work, but to counter that I'll tell you that the Cardinals pitching BABIP is pretty low. Now in the past I might chalk that up to great defense, but with Duncan/Spiezio/Wilson and an aging Edmonds patrolling the pastures, I can't believe that's really the case.

maddash · Post by **maddash** » May 3 07, 10:21 am

Hungary Jack wrote: I hope Wells isn't our 2007 version of DeLeon. But I am starting to wonder.

I think of the same thing with Wells... in fact, I'm sure HE thinks the same thing. He knows he has the stuff, but just can't put it together... probably why he's so excited to work with the Deacon.

haltz · Post by **haltz** » May 3 07, 10:54 am

Just for grins, the league FIP is 4.14. So if you were to make something like FIP+ then you'd have Reyes at 105 and Wells and Wainwright at 89.

Something else to consider is that Wells and Reyes are only stranding about half of their baserunners. Also, I don't know where to find the team babip but out of the threesome the only one who has been too fortunate in that regard is Wells. He's near .250 with Reyes at about .280 and Wainwright up at almost .370.