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We did this at the beginning of the season and I picked Hill. Let's revisit it and see who changed their mind.
Both tall dudes with awesome curves.

This year:
Wainwright - 26g, 12-9, 163.3 IP, 113 k, 56 bb, 3.86 era, 111 era+, 1.42 whip; .314/.396/.710 ops. 33.0 VORP (rank - 37th)
Hill - 26g, 8-7, 161.3 ip, 154 so, 51 bb, 3.68 era, 122 era+, 1.17 whip; .157/.180/.337 ops. 34.0 VORP (rank - 32nd)

Hill is 27, Wainwright turns 26 tomorrow.

Hill MiLB #'s - 3.43 era, 12.49 k/9, 4.19 bb/9, 1.21 whip. These numbers, though very good, are misleading because in 2005, he became a super stud who walked like half as many batters as he used to.

Wainwright MiLB #'s - 3.76 era, 8.85 k/9, 2.78 bb/9, 1.25 whip.


I think these two pitchers will both be very good for their respective teams going forward, but I'm changing my vote from Hill to Wainwright.

Here's why: As we know Wainwright struggled mightily making the transition from reliever to starter at the beginning of the year. His control over his curve disappeared and without it, he was pretty bad. May 15th was the high water mark where he had an 6.34 era. As recently as June 7th he had an 5.19 era.

Since the all-star break he has a 2.51 era, the control of that curve is back which has led to drastic improvements in missing bats. His k/9 pre all-star was 5.2; post it is 8.2. His k/bb pre was 1.4/1; post it is 3.4/1.

In picking Wainwright, I'm forgoing Hill's more consistent and better performance this year for the less provable opinion that Wainwright's early struggles were just those of a young pitcher making a tough transition to the rotation in the big leagues and the recent Wainwright is the real deal as opposed to assuming erratic control problems and hot streaks will be the norm for him. Plus he is far and away the better hitter.

At this moment, Rich Hill is tick better than AW, IMO. It can change come end of 2008 season.

All things being equal, and they seldom are, I'd take Hill since he's a lefty.

He definitely needs to learn how to field his position though.

I believe this was the original thread that thrill is talking about:

http://gatewayredbirds.com/forum/viewto ... &sk=t&sd=a

I'm almost the other way around, going from choosing AW to now being tempted to choose Hill. Wainwright's been just about what I expected, but Hill's been better and is getting further and further away from his erratic MiLB career and first half of his MLB career. I guess I'd still take AW, but at this point it's only because of age. In terms of performance, I think Hill has a slight edge and will continue to do so.

I think it depends on how real you think the respective HR-rates are. Hill's BABIP seems a little low, but he probably has some Zito-esque skill there. Wainwright's is probably high, but he was hit pretty hard when his curve wasn't working.

AW. But maybe I'm being influenced by a couple of outs that stick in my mind.

RC21 wrote:I believe this was the original thread that thrill is talking about:

http://gatewayredbirds.com/forum/viewto ... &sk=t&sd=a

I'm almost the other way around, going from choosing AW to now being tempted to choose Hill. Wainwright's been just about what I expected, but Hill's been better and is getting further and further away from his erratic MiLB career and first half of his MLB career. I guess I'd still take AW, but at this point it's only because of age. In terms of performance, I think Hill has a slight edge and will continue to do so.

Off thread topic: It was interesting that lots of people took Wood over Izzy at that time on the thread RC posted. I was one of very few who took Izzy. Just a lame "I told you so" reference.

Back to topic.

Wainwright, because he's a Cardinal and I want the Cardinals going forward. The other guy's on that team I don't much care for.

Honestly, I think the upside's pretty high on both these guys and they'll both likely be really fun to watch over the next 8-10 years. But man, The Hammer is something else when he's got it going on.

I took Hill, because his K/BB rate and WHIP are predictive of very good things if he keeps the homers down. On the other hand, Wainwright's development this season is a thing of great beauty, making me almost as happy as his performance as closer in the WS last year.

I'd welcome them both on any rotation. But I think Hill's lefthandedness and his ability to get K's trumps AW's toughness by the slightest degree. If you combined Hill's stuff with AW's wisdom at this early age, you'd have a Cy Young candidate for the next decade.