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Rave: Picking the long shot
Posted: May 31 14, 6:46 pm
by jim
I had two races I wanted to bet today, the 4th and the Springfield Stakes Race. When I was handicapping the 4th race at home last night, one horse jumped out at me: J.Z's Crafty Boy. Predicted morning line of 8-1, this is the kind of horse that can make your day. I wasn't sure he would win, but I actually thought he should be the favorite and I was really confident he would at least place. 10 minutes before the race he was going off at 17-1! WOW. Well the horse betting world got wind of this, and the odds plummeted back to 9.60, but those are still great odds.
$5 across the board in 4 in the 4th race at Arlington. $15 investment returned $78:
http://www.arlingtonpark.com/racing-wag ... ard/live/4
I also won the 7th race for a smaller payout ($5 win bet), but lost $20 in the Springfield Stakes Race (#8) when my horse came out of the last turn winning and game up gimpy and finished last.
I love winning that first bet of the day. I have a system - I put my bankroll in my right pocket and when I collect the winnings it goes to my left. I never take money out of the left pocket to bet - it stays. My bankroll for the day was $50, and I knew after the first race I was guaranteed to win money. With the win in the 7th race, I made about $50 today. Had my horse not have gotten hurt, I would have had a $100 profit at the track on the 4 races I bet.
Maybe I could make a living doing this ...
Re: Rave: Picking the long shot
Posted: May 31 14, 7:42 pm
by stlouie_lipp
Going to Arlington is a fun way to spend the day. In September we close the office early, rent a suite, and the entire office (and their guest) spend the day at the track. The girls dress up and wear their hats, open bar, buffet, etc. We've done that three years in a row now and everyone seems to have a really good time. I've yet to win anything though. Maybe that's because I have no idea how to handicap and mostly just bet on names.
Re: Rave: Picking the long shot
Posted: May 31 14, 10:48 pm
by jim
Handicapping is fun. I have a system, and rule #1 is the most important. Decide your bankroll for the day - $10, 20, 50, 100 ... whatever it is. Put that money in your right pants pocket. Any money collected goes in the left pocket. Never ever take money from the left pocket. When the right pocket is out of money, you are done betting for the day. Use your wallet for beer and food.
THat prevents one of the biggest mistakes people make - taking the winnings and just making bigger dumber bets and losing later on. My typical bankroll for a day will be 50 bucks, and if I bet 5 races and win them all I still only bet 50. I never ever take money won and add it to the bankroll.
The 4th race was alot of fun because I thought I nailed it last night handicapping it. It just seemed like a no-brainer that the horse was at least going to place, and I really thought it had a good shot to win. It was imo the best overlay I have found in years. I would have guessed a line of 4-1 tops, it went off over 9-1 and was as high as 17-1 at one point. My only regret is not just putting all of the money on a win bet - one it was the first race of the day I bet and two my wife was with me which generally causes me to be a little more conservative.
Lipp - we should go to the races some day this summer.
Re: Rave: Picking the long shot
Posted: June 1 14, 7:55 am
by stlouie_lipp
I'm definitely down with that. You could show me how to read those programs.
What you're saying is spot on. I once heard someone say that one of the biggest fallacies amateur gamblers have is that when they're winning they think they're playing with "house money". Wrong, once you win it, it's YOUR money.
Re: Rave: Picking the long shot
Posted: June 2 14, 12:17 pm
by tlombard
I normally go for the names just because I'm at Fairmount to drink $1 beer, socialize with my group of friends and then place bets so that I can yell and my horse when it doesn't win. When we go it is with a big group and there is always someone who shows up that I haven't seen in awhile so I spend my time talking and drinking with them instead of studying the horses. I never walk away a 'winner' but even after the $10 or so to get in, betting on every race and $1 beer, the most I've ever spent at the track is $30. I'm perfectly fine with that.
I would like to take a Tuesday off and just head over with a friend or two and actually try to see what happens if I do some research.
One time I did decide to try something different and it worked out surprisingly well. I was ahead until near the end when I placed some bigger bets ($5) and lost. I went with #1 to win in the first, 2 to place in the second, 3 to show in the third and then after that I went with the same horse as the race (4 in the 4th, 5 in the 5th, etc.) to show. Pure dumb luck that I didn't lose a bunch of money but at $2 per race that I normally bet the most I can lose actually betting is $20. I'll deal with that. That night I left with my pockets only $15 lighter so I guess in the end, I did win money on the betting part. I just don't consider it winning until my bets pay for my booze and I still have more money in my pocket when I walk out. That has never happened at any track or casino.