GatewayRedbirds.com

The Houston Astros are 54-31 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Atlanta Braves who are 48-38 on the road this season. The Astros have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Astros\' starter Framber Valdez is forecasted to have a better game than Braves\' starter Charlie Morton. Framber Valdez has a 46% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Charlie Morton has a 40% chance of a QS. If Framber Valdez has a quality start the Astros has a 80% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.1 and he has a 23% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Astros win 63%. In Charlie Morton quality starts the Braves win 66%. He has a 23% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 66% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Houston Astros is Yordan Alvarez who averaged 2.24 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 37% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Astros have a 73% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Atlanta Braves is Freddie Freeman who averaged 2.33 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 39% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Braves have a 53% chance of winning.