Steve Adams' NL Central comments

[mikechamp]

These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' writer Steve Adams that occurred on June 2. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.)

Same amount of questions this week and 5 bonus Q&As: one about FIP, one about PTBNL or cash, one about DFAs, and two about CBA negotiations. Enjoy the read!

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/06/ ... t-130.html
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Do you think Mlodzinski lost any respect from his teammates after his reaction to being sent to the bullpen?

Has Carmen Mlodzinski damaged his trade value by his perceived attitude problem?

Steve Adams
Obviously can’t speak to how he’s perceived among his teammates with any real firsthand knowledge, as they’ll keep that behind closed doors, but just logically speaking, how could he not have pissed off some guys in the clubhouse? He hung the team out to dry, forced them to call up Cam Sanders and then send him back down … his fourth option of the year. They can only option him one more time now. I get it, he wants to start, but good clubhouses have everyone rowing in the same direction, and that sure doesn’t feel like something that’s happening here.

As for his trade value, I don’t know that it was sky-high to begin with. He’s a back-end, five-inning starter whose numbers the second and especially third time through the order are glaring.

I can still imagine some clubs being less interested, though. If you trade for the guy and he struggles for his first 5-6 starts, what do you do? Put him in the bullpen and hope he doesn’t make a big deal of it this time? It’s just a bad look.
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Who’s the NL Cy Young if the season ended today?

Steve Adams
Flip a coin? Haha.

I’d probably go Cristopher Sanchez, just because he has eight more innings. It’s that close. But I like Miz’s chances of continuing to dominate at absurd levels a bit more than Sanchez’s, so Miz would be my pick now to win at season’s end.

My preseason Yamamoto pick does not feel like it’s going to hold up, ha!
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What would a trade for Jo Adell from the Angels or Noelvi Marte from the Reds look like from the Braves perspective and would either player be a beneficial platoon partner in left field for Mike Yastrzemski?

Steve Adams
Adell is a monster against LHP. Would be a great fit in that role. I don’t know why the Reds aren’t giving Marte another look, but I’d just start him over Yaz if they got him. In a platoon setting, I don’t love that fit, since Marte’s career numbers are much better in right-on-right matchups. Not sure that continues to be the case long term, but I also just think Marte can hit and he should be given a chance to on a regular basis.Marte has far more control and would (or should … but again, the Reds seem nonplused with him for whatever reason) cost substantially more.

Adell shouldn’t cost much in the way of prospects. Even last year when he hit 37 homers, he did it with a .290ish OBP and poor defense. He’s pretty one-dimensional. I don’t mind the idea of tossing a couple guys ranked between 15th and 30th in the system to the Angels for him.
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Do you see Nolan Gorman getting traded this summer?

Steve Adams
I don’t think he’d fetch anything of note, but it wouldn’t surprise me, no. He’s trending toward a non-tender, so if another club wants to give up even a modicum of value to try to fix him, the Cards would probably shrug and say sure.
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When Cabrera and Boyd come back, do the Cubs go to a 6-man rotation, or do they send Taillon or Rea back to Triple A/Bullpen?

Steve Adams
Can’t send either of those guys to AAA.

You’re assuming everyone is healthy at the same time, which feels optimistic for any team — but especially the Cubs, given how this season’s going.

If they did somehow get everyone healthy, it’d be Rea back to a swing role in the ‘pen. Boyd, Shota, Taillon, Cabrera, Brown in the rotation probably, then play it by ear whenever Steele’s back. Could always ‘pen Brown again. He’s been great, but you can’t option any of the more veteran guys.
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Since Arraez is producing better than *checks notes* ANYONE thought at 2B, who would be a good trade fit at the deadline? Yankees? the Surprising A’s? Pirates? And would he net SFG a prospect in the teams 5-10 range plus another in the 10-15 range?

Steve Adams
Rays? Haven’t gotten much from 2B this year and Lux isn’t coming back anytime soon.Red Sox, Phillies, Royals and Reds have gotten little to nothing from 2B this year, but it’s not clear they’ll all be buyers. Royals sure seem like they’re headed the other direction.

Any team with ABs available at 2B, 1B or DH makes sense though. I’m generally of the “Arraez is fairly overrated as a one-dimensional/one-trick guy”, but that one trick is working a lot better than it has in awhile and he’s played a solid 2B while walking a slight bit more (although his overall swing rate is actually up, so that probably won’t last)
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JJW has to be ROY as of right now, right? And his skill set isn’t really prone to dramatic swings, and if anything his xwOBA is 20 pts higher than his wOBA.

Steve Adams
As of now, sure, he’d probably win, but there’s a whole lot of season left and Nolan McLean’s not going to keep working to a 4-something ERA. Sal Stewart’s going to heat up again at some point. And Griffin’s on the IL now, but he was hitting .317/.370/.488 over 135 PAs beforehand.
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For a long time now, FIP has been the go-to start for an at-a-glance assessment about sustainability of pitching results. As we know, it does this by ignoring results where the batter put the ball in play. While the general correlation to future ERA is undeniable, I’ve always thought FIP failed to capture the relative talents of contact-oriented pitching. Now that Statcast has been collecting more detailed swing data, do you think we should expect to see better/more comprehensive “fielding independent” pitching stats coming along?

Steve Adams
I’ve liked SIERA over FIP for … well, ever. FIP doesn’t normalize homer-to-flyball rate, despite the fact that HR/FB year after year tends to stabilize around 12%. SIERA (and xFIP) do account for that. I feel they’re far better metrics. There are plenty of other ERA estimators/alternatives already out there. xERA (Statcast), DRA, DRA- … FIP is more useful than ERA, but it’s got its own flaws.
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Now that the new CBA negotiations are “joined”, can you see a settlement that includes some sort of cap, but materially improves the salary structure for younger players?

Steve Adams
I don’t think the union will ever consent to a cap, and I think they’d be more willing to lose games than ownership would if it came down to it.

I also wouldn’t call either of the initial proposals any kind of beginning to negotiations.

They were PR stunts. Both wildly unrealistic and total nonstarters for the other party. I don’t even understand the point in putting those out there. It’s nonsense — entirely for show.
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How much cash is typically involved when players are traded for cash?

Steve Adams
It varies. Can be as low as a dollar or could be $50K+ … it’s never a very significant amount. Teams aren’t buying guys who were DFA for $2.5MM or anything.
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So Steve, you love this sport. Without a cap, what is a reasonable solution for the millions of us that are sick of the Dodgers/Mets/Yanks spending gazillions and the Brewers and Reds spending 25 cents?

Steve Adams
Drastically more significant penalties for exceeding the luxury tax — draft picks, much steeper percentages of taxation, probably. I don’t even inherently hate the idea of a cap. If it comes, fine, but I don’t think the players will ever concede to it, and on the snowball’s chance they actually cave, I think it’d take about 1-2 years before everyone realized, “Hey the Brewers, Reds, Marlins, etc. still aren’t spending on free agents, they’re just absorbing the final year of the Dodgers’ and Mets’ unwanted contracts to buy a prospect and hit the salary floor”. While the owners all toast to their substantially greater franchise values.

I don’t think there is ever going to be a way to get a crappy owner to spend money at the levels most of said team’s fans would prefer.
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Why do we get ao many players who are DFAd, choose free agency, then wind up signing a minor-league contract with the same organization the y just left? Why not just accept the outright assignment in teh first place?

Steve Adams
Renegotiating a new minor league deal lets you negotiate new opt-out dates or upward mobility clauses that weren’t in the original deal. Can also angle for slight increases in minor league and/or major league salary.
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