Jay Jaffe's NL Central comments
Posted: October 7 26, 6:14 pm
These comments came from a chat with FanGraphs' writer Jay Jaffe that occurred on October 6. If you like him, you can find him on BlueSky at https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social.
A lot of NL Central question this time, and 3 bonus Q&As: one about (not) chat, one about lost games and one about baseball books. Enjoy!
The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-f ... t-10-6-26/
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In their last job posting, is "The Pirates Why" a typo, or an essay question to be answered as part of the application process?
Jay Jaffe
I checked with David Appelman, that's actually not a typo, it's verbatim from their post:
https://pirates.rec.pro.ukg.net/PIT1500 ... 940d01b7b1
It's "why do you want to work for the Pirates?" I guess.
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I went into this postseason thinking that the Brewers and Rays, in that order, were the best teams, and the models were overrating LA and NY. Haven't really changed my mind. Your thoughts?
Jay Jaffe
That's who i picked, and it was by far the most common pick in our staff poll at the outset of the postseason, with 9 out of 26 staffers picking that exact matchup, with no other one getting more than 3. So far, I don't see any reason to regret that choice.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/heres-whos- ... ld-series/
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Christian Yelich. Did this season effectively quash his HOF hopes, or did his string of mostly meh campaigns following his monster seasons in 2018 and 2019 already take care of that?
Jay Jaffe
The latter. Through 2019 (his age-27 season), Yelich racked up 32 bWAR and looked like a guy who had a real shot at the Hall, but in 7 seasons since, he's added just 13.1 bWAR, with a high of 3.5 in 2023. Outside of those two big years, he has just one other season above 4.0 WAR (2016, 4.9). That's not gonna get it done, alas.
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Which team that's down 2-0 would you most want to be right now?
Jay Jaffe
Probably the Guardians, just because the White Sox, given their youth and shaky starting pitching, seem more surmountable than the Rays or Brewers — though jeez, the Padres came so close to winning both of their games.
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If the Brewers and White Sox make the World Series, will anybody outside of the Midwest (and Florida) watch it?
Jay Jaffe
The ratings won't be as good as Dodgers-Yankees or Dodgers-Blue Jays, but it's not like the White Sox are a small-market team, and I do think that the more people see of these Brewers, the more they'll catch onto them.
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If we get a Brewers/Dodgers NLCS rematch does it go differently or do the Dodgers dominate again?
Jay Jaffe
If that happens — and I'm not gonna guarantee it, because by losing Game 2 the Dodgers have complicated things for themselves — I think it will go differently.
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Piggybacking on the Yelich question: why do you suppose Murphy waited until Yelich was probably on the bubble for being DFA’d to give him the “captain” honorific? Think it has anything to do with the fact that an org like the Brewers would at least consider DFAing him and he was trying to fend that off? I know, real conspiracy BS, but just curious what your thoughts are.
Jay Jaffe
DFA'd? That seems a stretch given that he's owed another $58 million or so over the next two seasons and is just one year removed from a 29-homer, 3-win season. It would be unlike them to punt like that.
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Pitching almost always dominates in the post-season but this year is even more one-sided than usual. The overall batting average is well below .200 and not a single team has gotten 10 hits in a game in any Division series game yet. As more and more 6'6" Misiorowski, Tolle and Skenes types continue to enter the game do you fear that the balance between pitching and hitting will continue skew in the pitcher's favor to a point in which it is a detriment to baseball.
Jay Jaffe
I think the observed trend will even out as the postseason continues, and I think that while the current velocity trends tend to tilt the balance towards pitching, the churn from injuries is such that it tends to temper things. I know not everybody loves the current version of baseball but I don't see a way things change immediately — efforts like the ones to ban the shift and to encourage stolen bases have had small effects but leveled off.
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If we get a Brewers-White Sox or Brewers-Guardians WS, or alternatively a Dodgers threepeat, does that meaningfully impact CBA negotiations about a salary cap?
Jay Jaffe
No, not really.
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If you’re Jed Hoyer what do you do for 2027? You have a core on the infield that’s older but still near their peak, and you need to either take advantage of that in 2027 or disband it and rebuild. You have one OF still under contract, and basically zero pitchers. Sure seems like whatever window they had open the last couple years is already closing.
Jay Jaffe
Man, I don' t know. They absolutely need pitching more than anything else and well, the top guy on the market is Skubal. I suspect they make efforts to retain Suzuki and/or Happ.
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Who do you have in the NL ROY race?
Jay Jaffe
I think I'd go with Chase Burns. Very good seasons from Benge, Wetherholt, good from McLean, but Burns was a nose ahead of them — a star-level season.
(someone pointed out that Burns may have exceeded his eligibility last year)
Gah, this is a case where we have him in our leaderboards as qualified based on innings (using the check box) but B-Ref has the days count and he's over. So... gah.
In that case, it's much more of a toss-up between the other guys I named. I might go with Benge just because there was a big divergence in Wetherholt's defensive numbers driving his placement (23 FRV, 13 DRS — still excellent but a 1-win difference).
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As the resident historian, between PCA and Alonso/Mets drama, is 2026 The Season of Pete?
Jay Jaffe
Sure, let's go with that, even with a 6.31 ERA from Pete Fairbanks.
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Are chats now only open to subscribers?
Jay Jaffe
No but IIRC you now have to be logged in (as in, have a user account even if it's free) to submit a question.
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About the CBA expiring in December, are people overreacting about the lockout or could the season lose games or not happen. What is most likely?
Jay Jaffe
I can't get onboard with the doom and gloom scenario of a full season lost. Evan Drelich reported that losing 60 games to a stoppage may be the real deadline due to the impact on TV rights deals. Hopes for expansion and Manfred's pressure to bolster his legacy are also factors, but with franchises selling for ridiculous values I think it's tougher for the owners to make the case to the public that baseball is a bad investment for owners. I think we wind up somewhere around where we were last time, maybe losing a bit more in terms of games.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/762709 ... ed_article
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Read any good baseball books this season?
Or really any good books, period.
Jay Jaffe
Two: Michael Clair's We Sacrifice Everything to Baseball, about the Czech World Baseball Classic teams, and Thomas Gilbert's Death in the Strike zone, about 19th century pioneer Jim Creighton.
Current reading: Moses and the Doctor, by Luke Epplin. About ABA stars Moses Malone and Julius Erving joining forces to break up the Celtics-Lakers dominance in the 1980s. Epplin's previous book about the 1948 Indians, Our Team, was great.
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A lot of NL Central question this time, and 3 bonus Q&As: one about (not) chat, one about lost games and one about baseball books. Enjoy!
The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-f ... t-10-6-26/
-----------------------------------------------------------------
In their last job posting, is "The Pirates Why" a typo, or an essay question to be answered as part of the application process?
Jay Jaffe
I checked with David Appelman, that's actually not a typo, it's verbatim from their post:
https://pirates.rec.pro.ukg.net/PIT1500 ... 940d01b7b1
It's "why do you want to work for the Pirates?" I guess.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
I went into this postseason thinking that the Brewers and Rays, in that order, were the best teams, and the models were overrating LA and NY. Haven't really changed my mind. Your thoughts?
Jay Jaffe
That's who i picked, and it was by far the most common pick in our staff poll at the outset of the postseason, with 9 out of 26 staffers picking that exact matchup, with no other one getting more than 3. So far, I don't see any reason to regret that choice.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/heres-whos- ... ld-series/
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Christian Yelich. Did this season effectively quash his HOF hopes, or did his string of mostly meh campaigns following his monster seasons in 2018 and 2019 already take care of that?
Jay Jaffe
The latter. Through 2019 (his age-27 season), Yelich racked up 32 bWAR and looked like a guy who had a real shot at the Hall, but in 7 seasons since, he's added just 13.1 bWAR, with a high of 3.5 in 2023. Outside of those two big years, he has just one other season above 4.0 WAR (2016, 4.9). That's not gonna get it done, alas.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Which team that's down 2-0 would you most want to be right now?
Jay Jaffe
Probably the Guardians, just because the White Sox, given their youth and shaky starting pitching, seem more surmountable than the Rays or Brewers — though jeez, the Padres came so close to winning both of their games.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
If the Brewers and White Sox make the World Series, will anybody outside of the Midwest (and Florida) watch it?
Jay Jaffe
The ratings won't be as good as Dodgers-Yankees or Dodgers-Blue Jays, but it's not like the White Sox are a small-market team, and I do think that the more people see of these Brewers, the more they'll catch onto them.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
If we get a Brewers/Dodgers NLCS rematch does it go differently or do the Dodgers dominate again?
Jay Jaffe
If that happens — and I'm not gonna guarantee it, because by losing Game 2 the Dodgers have complicated things for themselves — I think it will go differently.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Piggybacking on the Yelich question: why do you suppose Murphy waited until Yelich was probably on the bubble for being DFA’d to give him the “captain” honorific? Think it has anything to do with the fact that an org like the Brewers would at least consider DFAing him and he was trying to fend that off? I know, real conspiracy BS, but just curious what your thoughts are.
Jay Jaffe
DFA'd? That seems a stretch given that he's owed another $58 million or so over the next two seasons and is just one year removed from a 29-homer, 3-win season. It would be unlike them to punt like that.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Pitching almost always dominates in the post-season but this year is even more one-sided than usual. The overall batting average is well below .200 and not a single team has gotten 10 hits in a game in any Division series game yet. As more and more 6'6" Misiorowski, Tolle and Skenes types continue to enter the game do you fear that the balance between pitching and hitting will continue skew in the pitcher's favor to a point in which it is a detriment to baseball.
Jay Jaffe
I think the observed trend will even out as the postseason continues, and I think that while the current velocity trends tend to tilt the balance towards pitching, the churn from injuries is such that it tends to temper things. I know not everybody loves the current version of baseball but I don't see a way things change immediately — efforts like the ones to ban the shift and to encourage stolen bases have had small effects but leveled off.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
If we get a Brewers-White Sox or Brewers-Guardians WS, or alternatively a Dodgers threepeat, does that meaningfully impact CBA negotiations about a salary cap?
Jay Jaffe
No, not really.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
If you’re Jed Hoyer what do you do for 2027? You have a core on the infield that’s older but still near their peak, and you need to either take advantage of that in 2027 or disband it and rebuild. You have one OF still under contract, and basically zero pitchers. Sure seems like whatever window they had open the last couple years is already closing.
Jay Jaffe
Man, I don' t know. They absolutely need pitching more than anything else and well, the top guy on the market is Skubal. I suspect they make efforts to retain Suzuki and/or Happ.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Who do you have in the NL ROY race?
Jay Jaffe
I think I'd go with Chase Burns. Very good seasons from Benge, Wetherholt, good from McLean, but Burns was a nose ahead of them — a star-level season.
(someone pointed out that Burns may have exceeded his eligibility last year)
Gah, this is a case where we have him in our leaderboards as qualified based on innings (using the check box) but B-Ref has the days count and he's over. So... gah.
In that case, it's much more of a toss-up between the other guys I named. I might go with Benge just because there was a big divergence in Wetherholt's defensive numbers driving his placement (23 FRV, 13 DRS — still excellent but a 1-win difference).
-----------------------------------------------------------------
As the resident historian, between PCA and Alonso/Mets drama, is 2026 The Season of Pete?
Jay Jaffe
Sure, let's go with that, even with a 6.31 ERA from Pete Fairbanks.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Are chats now only open to subscribers?
Jay Jaffe
No but IIRC you now have to be logged in (as in, have a user account even if it's free) to submit a question.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
About the CBA expiring in December, are people overreacting about the lockout or could the season lose games or not happen. What is most likely?
Jay Jaffe
I can't get onboard with the doom and gloom scenario of a full season lost. Evan Drelich reported that losing 60 games to a stoppage may be the real deadline due to the impact on TV rights deals. Hopes for expansion and Manfred's pressure to bolster his legacy are also factors, but with franchises selling for ridiculous values I think it's tougher for the owners to make the case to the public that baseball is a bad investment for owners. I think we wind up somewhere around where we were last time, maybe losing a bit more in terms of games.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/762709 ... ed_article
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Read any good baseball books this season?
Or really any good books, period.
Jay Jaffe
Two: Michael Clair's We Sacrifice Everything to Baseball, about the Czech World Baseball Classic teams, and Thomas Gilbert's Death in the Strike zone, about 19th century pioneer Jim Creighton.
Current reading: Moses and the Doctor, by Luke Epplin. About ABA stars Moses Malone and Julius Erving joining forces to break up the Celtics-Lakers dominance in the 1980s. Epplin's previous book about the 1948 Indians, Our Team, was great.
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