Re: How many games will the Cubs win?
Posted: June 27 16, 7:27 am
I still feel good about 105-109.
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Update: Team ERA+ has regressed to 144.Popeye_Card wrote:There were valid reasons for why we expected the 2015 Cardinals to regress. Just because that regression didn't arrive until the NLDS does not mean that we shouldn't be applying the same logic to the Cubs' current rotation.Cheddar Tom wrote:The 2016 Cubs have allowed the same amount of runs thru 55 games that the 2015 Cardinals did....and they actually have a slightly higher strand rate than the 2015 Cards (something that pundits loved to write about). We thought the Cards pitching was going to regress and it never happened to the degree it prob. should have, so I could see the Cubs keeping this up all year long as well. They have a great defense and 4 guys who strike out a batter an inning or close to it.
Sure, those pitchers could *all* keep up the career-high levels of performance. I personally would not bet much money on that happening. They have good pitchers, but their current team ERA+ is 157. 157!!! Even 140 would be at historic levels (2015 Cardinals finished at 134).
That said, they've had a great start, and will probably win over 100.
And they're only a percentage point better than the Nats. They have the same record, basically. Cubs are 25-27 over their last 52 games.dan_yall wrote:They would not be the #1 seed if the NL playoffs started today.
Still on track to win the coveted pythagorean pennant, though.